The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

With standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post-war U.S. using the BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Welfare costs are about 0.9% per-capita consumption ($175.00) and marginal welfare costs are about twice as large.

Time-series properties and empirical evidence of growth and infraestructure: revised version

After more than forty years studying growth, there are two classes of growth models that have emerged: exogenous and endogenous growth models. Since both try to mimic the same set of long-run stylized facts, they are observationally equivalent in some respects. Our goals in this paper are twofold First, we discuss the time-series properties of growth models in a way that is useful for assessing their fit to the data. Second, we investigate whether these two models successfully conforms to U.S. post-war data. We use cointegration techniques to estimate and test long-run capital elasticities, exogeneity tests to investigate the exogeneity status of TFP, and Granger-causality tests to examine temporal precedence of TFP with respect to infrastructure expenditures. The empirical evidence is robust in confirming the existence of a unity long-run capital elasticity. The analysis of TFP reveals that it is not weakly exogenous in the exogenous growth model Granger-causality test results show unequivocally that there is no evidence that TFP for both models precede infrastructure expenditures not being preceded by it. On the contrary, we find some evidence that infras- tructure investment precedes TFP. Our estimated impact of infrastructure on TFP lay rougbly in the interval (0.19, 0.27).

Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function

Using the Pricing Equation in a panel-data framework, we construct a novel consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) which relies on the fact that its logarithm is the serial-correlation ìcommon featureîin every asset return of the economy. Our estimator is a simple function of asset returns, does not depend on any parametric function representing preferences, is suitable for testing di§erent preference speciÖcations or investigating intertemporal substitution puzzles, and can be a basis to construct an estimator of the risk-free rate. For post-war data, our estimator is close to unity most of the time, yielding an average annual real discount rate of 2.46%. In formal testing, we cannot reject standard preference speciÖcations used in the literature and estimates of the relative risk-aversion coe¢ cient are between 1 and 2, and statistically equal to unity. Using our SDF estimator, we found little signs of the equity-premium puzzle for the U.S.

O milhão restante, o Brasil e a evolução da proteção internacional a refugiados (1946-1952)

Quando a II Guerra Mundial chegou ao fim, calcula-se que havia até 40 milhões de europeus deslocados de seu local de origem. Inicialmente, coube à Agência das Nações Unidas para Auxílio e Restabelecimento (ANUAR) repatriar essas pessoas. Diante da crescente resistência de muitas em retornar para casa, foi criada pela ONU a Organização Internacional de Refugiados (OIR). De 1947 a 1951, quando foi substituída pelo ACNUR, foi responsável por reassentar mais de 1 milhão de pessoas em diferentes países. O Brasil foi um deles. Diante deste quadro, a presente dissertação busca compreender, em primeiro lugar, a construção do maquinário internacional de proteção de refugiados surgido no pós-guerra no âmbito da ONU. Em seguida, analisar de que maneira o Brasil se inseriu nele. Qual o papel que teve na criação do regime? Quais interesses tinha em vista ao receber os refugiados? São algumas das perguntas para as quais o presente estudo procurou encontrar respostas.

A supervisão escolar em Goiás

O presente estudo trata das origens da Supervisão Escolar no Brasil, marcada pela penetração norte-americana na educação brasileira, através da implementação dos programas de assistência técnica e ajuda financeira ao Brasil no pós-guerra. Analisou-se o Programa de Assistência Brasileiro-Americana ao Ensino Elementar (PABAEE) como um destes programas e de onde surgiu a Supervisão Escolar Brasileira. Definida a origem da Supervisão brasileira, analisou-se a Supervisão Escolar em Goiás, instalada no CTM de Inhumas e definida em nova situação institucional após a lei 5.540. Comparou-se a formação do Supervisão de Inhumas e da Universidade, e discutiu-se, para finalizar, qual o espaço e qual a tarefa do Supervisor no sistema educacional brasileiro hoje.