Análise da viabilidade do sistema de auditorias de obras públicas do Tribunal de Contas do Estado do Rio de Janeiro à luz do modelo de sistema viável

The Brazilian public administration must act with efficiency, developing its activities with readiness and minimizing the use of resources. However, it has not been being able to work with increasing demand in solve complex problems. Tribunal de Contas do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (TCERJ) is the entity responsible for the operational audit of the public institutions of Rio de Janeiro State and its Municipals districts, except for the Capital. It has detected itself that the society demand is superior to its operational capacity of assistance. This dissertation tries to know if the public works audits system adopted by TCERJ could be considered a viable system. Considering that the systems approaches represents the key to work with a reality more and more complex, the Viable System Modelo (VSM) was adopted as reference, having been developed by Stafford Beer with cybernetics basis. Finally, taking VSM as reference in the normative level, it could be affirmed that the studied system is not a viable system to verify that, the studied system is not a viable system yet.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.