Homogeneous middles vs. heterogeneous tails, and the end of the ‘Inverted-U’: the share of the rich is what it’s all about

This paper examines the current global scene of distributional disparities within-nations. There are six main conclusions. First, about 80 per cent of the world’s population now live in regions whose median country has a Gini not far from 40. Second, as outliers are now only located among middle-income and rich countries, the ‘upwards’ side of the ‘Inverted-U’ between inequality and income per capita has evaporated (and with it the statistical support there was for the hypothesis that posits that, for whatever reason, ‘things have to get worse before they can get better’). Third, among middle-income countries Latin America and mineral-rich Southern Africa are uniquely unequal, while Eastern Europe follows a distributional path similar to the Nordic countries. Fourth, among rich countries there is a large (and growing) distributional diversity. Fifth, within a global trend of rising inequality, there are two opposite forces at work. One is ‘centrifugal’, and leads to an increased diversity in the shares appropriated by the top 10 and bottom 40 per cent. The other is ‘centripetal’, and leads to a growing uniformity in the income-share appropriated by deciles 5 to 9. Therefore, half of the world’s population (the middle and upper-middle classes) have acquired strong ‘property rights’ over half of their respective national incomes; the other half, however, is increasingly up for grabs between the very rich and the poor. And sixth, Globalisation is thus creating a distributional scenario in which what really matters is the income-share of the rich — because the rest ‘follows’ (middle classes able to defend their shares, and workers with ever more precarious jobs in ever more ‘flexible’ labour markets). Therefore, anybody attempting to understand the within-nations disparity of inequality should always be reminded of this basic distributional fact following the example of Clinton’s campaign strategist: by sticking a note on their notice-boards saying “It’s the share of the rich, stupid”.

O contrato de gestão em busca de um modelo para empresas de obras especiais - EMPROE-U.E.E

The present dissertation target, is to analyze the application viability of the administration contract at the Public Administration in a general and concomitantly order, to simulate a contract of Administration for a Special-Works Enterprise - Economical State Unity - EMPROE - U.E.E , pointed out the importance of this, for the immediate Political-Social and economical situation that Angola hindes on the domain of Public-Works and Urbanism taking account the theoretical developed on the following chapters. At the first chapter, seeked to supply brief datas about what have been done at several sectors ofthe angolan economy. At the second chapter, particularizedly describes the historical evolution of the Manageral ambience from Angola. At the third chapter we did mention to the concepts and thecnical aspects of the Strategical Administration and the concepts, origins, and the Administration characteristics by Objectives. The fourth chapter handles about the origin of the Administration Contracts, according of his historic/concept at the evolution agreement procedures. At the fifth chapter doing some considerations about the Brazilian Experience of Administraion contracts, particularizing cases from C.V.R.D. , from Petrobrás and the implantation skill of the Administration contracts for the State Govemments of São Paulo. At the sixth chapter allude to the American Experince in Administration contracts had the flexibility and the Institute of "W AIVER" as reference. At the seventh chapter dials of the Angolan Experience at the Administration contracts, just as reference to the Beers Nacional Enterprises - CERV AL. The eighth presents a contract simulation of Administration between the EMPROE-U.E.E and the MINOPU, focalizing the Strategical function, mission and the luridical instruments, according to a specific model. The ninth and the last one chapter do some inherences to the analysis of the contracts viability of Administration and some suggestions for the Enterprise as a conclusion.

An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Os meios de comunicação de massa como aparelhos de hegemonia

Nas sociedades fundadas no modo de produção capitalista, os meios de comunicação de massa exercem funções políticas e econômicas fundamentais, atuando no sentido de inculcar a ideologia que dá sustentação a esse modelo econômico. A compreensão crítica de tais funções, pode ser obtida tomando-se como referência a teoria de Antonio Gramsci que situa, com precisão, através de seus conceitos de homem, ideologia, Estado, hegemonia, cultura e relações pedagógicas, a importância política dos meios de comunicação de massa, entendidos como aparelhos de hegemonia do Estado. No contexto específico da América Latina, os meios de comunicação de massa assumem dupla importância na medida em que suas práticas hegemônicas atendem, concomitantemente, aos interesses do capitalismo internacional - sobretudo aos dos Estados Unidos - e aos interesses das classes dominantes de cada um dos países deste continente, envolvidos em alianças político-econômicas, com as nações que detêm a hegemonia internacional. De acordo com essa perspectiva, podemos compreender o significado político do processo de implantação e desenvolvimento dos meios de comunicação, sobretudo da televisão, no Brasil e explicitar o sentido dessa prática hegemônica que assumiu papel de maior relevância após o golpe militar de 1964, quando a ideologia da Segurança Nacional encontrou, na comunicação de massa, difusora dos produtos da indústria cul tural, o canal mais adequado para desenvolver sua estratégia de atuação, denominada ação psicológica, objetivando consuiltar a anuência da totalidade social ao regime político que, então, se instalou no país. O caso específico da Rede Globo de Televisão, se constitui num dos mais tontundentes exemplos da concretização desta prática e pode, quando analisado, elucidar, através de fatos concretos, os mecanismos hegemônicos internacionais e nacionais que se encontram presentes desde o histôrico da implantação da referida emissora em nível de rede nacional, até os processos diários de produção de programas como o Jornal Nacional e o Fantástico - o Show da Vida. Esta análise, entretanto, não pode deixar de ressaltar que o processo de inculcação ideológica encontra diversos obstáculos a seu êxito integral junto às classes subalternas, que não podem ser compreendidas como meras receptoras passivas das mensagens produzidas pela classe dominante. Os mecanismos de resistência dessas classes existem e, embora não sejam, ainda, suficientemente conhecidos, não podem deixar de ser considerados quando o que se pretende é compreender o real significado das funções e do alcance dos meios de comunicação na sociedade.

Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.