On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes: a survey

Data available on continuos-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the use of Martingale Estimating Functions and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes - a partial survey

Data available on continuous-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the employment of Martingale Estimating Functions, and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

Como tomadores de decisão experts percebem cenários complexos?

In this thesis, the basic research of Chase and Simon (1973) is questioned, and we seek new results by analyzing the errors of experts and beginners chess players in experiments to reproduce chess positions. Chess players with different levels of expertise participated in the study. The results were analyzed by a Brazilian grandmaster, and quantitative analysis was performed with the use of statistical methods data mining. The results challenge significantly, the current theories of expertise, memory and decision making in this area, because the present theory predicts piece on square encoding, in which players can recognize the strategic situation reproducing it faithfully, but commit several errors that the theory can¿t explain. The current theory can¿t fully explain the encoding used by players to register a board. The errors of intermediary players preserved fragments of the strategic situation, although they have committed a series of errors in the reconstruction of the positions. The encoding of chunks therefore includes more information than that predicted by current theories. Currently, research on perception, trial and decision is heavily concentrated on the idea of pattern recognition". Based on the results of this research, we explore a change of perspective. The idea of "pattern recognition" presupposes that the processing of relevant information is on "patterns" (or data) that exist independently of any interpretation. We propose that the theory suggests the vision of decision-making via the recognition of experience.

Autodeterminação local e desenvolvimento: uma análise da dinâmica social no município de São Roque de Minas

In this thesis, the basic research of Chase and Simon (1973) is questioned, and we seek new results by analyzing the errors of experts and beginners chess players in experiments to reproduce chess positions. Chess players with different levels of expertise participated in the study. The results were analyzed by a Brazilian grandmaster, and quantitative analysis was performed with the use of statistical methods data mining. The results challenge significantly, the current theories of expertise, memory and decision making in this area, because the present theory predicts piece on square encoding, in which players can recognize the strategic situation reproducing it faithfully, but commit several errors that the theory can¿t explain. The current theory can¿t fully explain the encoding used by players to register a board. The errors of intermediary players preserved fragments of the strategic situation, although they have committed a series of errors in the reconstruction of the positions. The encoding of chunks therefore includes more information than that predicted by current theories. Currently, research on perception, trial and decision is heavily concentrated on the idea of 'pattern recognition'. Based on the results of this research, we explore a change of perspective. The idea of 'pattern recognition' presupposes that the processing of relevant information is on 'patterns' (or data) that exist independently of any interpretation. We propose that the theory suggests the vision of decision-making via the recognition of experience.

A Contribuição do IBGE para a avaliação dos programas do plano plurianual

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar a participação do IBGE no processo de avaliação do Plano Plurianual 2004-2007. O estudo inicia pela contextualização da melhoria da gestão pública e pelo embasamento teórico sobre a temática de avaliação de programas, seus indicadores e a perspectiva da efetividade. O planejamento na administração pública brasileira passou por várias fases, cada qual com suas características marcantes, chegando ao modelo atual, o Plano Plurianual, que integra planejamento e orçamento, busca dar transparência aos objetivos e prioridades do governo e melhorar a gestão orientando-a para resultados. O IBGE tem atribuições definidas em lei, um papel importante no desenvolvimento do país e competências reconhecidas, que o legitimam perante a sociedade como o principal coordenador e produtor de informações de natureza estatística e geocientífica. Assim almeja-se verificar a real participação do IBGE e das informações divulgadas por ele nos programas do PPA 2004-2007, dando um enfoque maior no processo de avaliação dada a sua relevância para a gestão pública. Para tanto, a pesquisa utiliza como métodos a pesquisa bibliográfica, a revisão documental e questionários com pessoas-chaves que são os gerentes de programa do Plano Plurianual. A pesquisa se restringiu aos programas considerados finalísticos e de serviços ao Estado. Os resultados obtidos nesta pesquisa demonstram que a atuação do IBGE se encontra muito aquém de sua competência técnica reconhecida nacional e internacionalmente, da credibilidade e qualidade de suas informações, e de sua relevância percebida pelo Governo para o processo de gestão do PPA. Pode-se concluir que o IBGE tem um vasto campo de atuação de modo a contribuir efetivamente para o desenvolvimento sustentável do país.