Linkages between growth, poverty and the labour market

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contributions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages growth patterns, and labour market performances. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate, hours of work, the labour force participation rate, and productivity. The proposed methodology are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance.

Linkages between pro-poor growth, social programmes and labour market : the recent Brazilian experience

From a methodological point of view, this paper makes two contlibutions to the literature. One contribution is the proposal of a new measure of pro-poor growth. This new measure provides the linkage between growth rates in mean income and in income inequality. In this context, growth is defined as pro-poor (or anti-poor) if there is a gain (or loss) in the growth rate due to a decrease (or increase) in inequality. The other contribution is a decomposition methodology that explores linkages between three dimensions: growth pattems, labour market performances. and social policies. Through the decomposition analysis, growth in per capita income is explained in terms of four labour market components: the employment rate. hours of work, the labour force participation rate. and productivity. We also assess the contribution of different nonlabour income sources to growth patterns. The proposed methodologies are then applied to the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) covering the period 1995-2004. The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian social indicators based on per capita income exploring links with adverse labour market performance and social policy change, with particular emphasis on the expansion of targeted cash transfers and devising more propoor social security benefits.

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

O trabalho atrapalha os estudos?

Nas últimas décadas a frequência à escola entre os jovens brasileiros aumentou consideravelmente. A porcentagem de crianças, entre 10 e 14 anos de idade que estão matriculados na escola está acima de 95% e na faixa de 15 a 18 anos de idade, cerca de 70%. Vinte anos atrás estes números eram 80% e 50%, respectivamente. Por outro lado, quando se analisa os dados de participação na força de trabalho o quadro é menos otimista: para ambos os grupos, a participação é bastante elevada e tem apresentado comportamento estável ao longo dos anos. Este estuda analisa o efeito da participação no mercado de trabalho sobre o atraso escolar de crianças de nestes dois grupos de faixa etária utilizando a metodologia de emparelhamento por nota de propensão (propensity score matching) de participação no mercado de trabalho. Como seria de se esperar quanto maior a probabilidade de participar maior o atraso escolar. Mas, nosso principal resultado é que em ambos os grupos e mais acentuadamente para os mais jovens, a diferença de atraso entre os que participam e não participam do mercado de trabalho é mais elevado para valores intermediários de probabilidade de trabalhar. Nos valores extremos da distribuição as diferenças não são tão elevadas e muitas vezes não significantes estatisticamente. Isto significa que para os jovens com elevada probabilidade de participar no mercado de trabalho, e que são os que têm o mais elevado grau de atraso escolar, o trabalho em si não é a maior razão para este mal desempenho. Estes resultados sugerem que as políticas públicas para combate ao atraso escolar entre os grupos mais pobres deveriam ser mais abrangentes envolvendo uma ação mais ampla sobre a família e não apenas na erradicação do trabalho infantil e juvenil.

Os extremos do ciclo de vida: trabalho infantil e aposentadoria precoce

Este trabalho procura analisar dois problemas bastante graves que afligem a sociedade brasileira. De um lado, a entrada precoce na força de trabalho, que tem sua face mais perversa no trabalho infantil; de outro, a saída também precoce da força de trabalho de adultos em idade ainda produtiva. Ambos fenômenos são empobrecedores para a sociedade e atuam como mecanismo de geração e perpetuação de pobreza. O trabalho infantil, discutido na primeira parte do trabalho, prejudica a educação. A saída precoce da força de trabalho, analisado na segunda parte do trabalho, é um desperdício de recursos. Na terceira parte é desenvolvida uma análise formal que procura mostrar o quanto um sistema de aposentadorias como o sistema previdenciário brasileiro, que garante uma renda por vida às pessoas após um certo anos de trabalho, pode induzir escolhas que embora ótimas do ponto de vista privado são bastante custosas do ponto vista social. Especificamente, procura-se mostrar como esta legislação pode incentivar tanto a entrada quanto a saída precoce do mercado de trabalho.

Políticas públicas no setor de turismo: utopia ou realidade?

Este trabalho pretende mostrar que a implementação de políticas públicas no setor de turismo não é utopia, e sim um instrumento essencial à dinamização deste segmento tão promissor e rentável, que no mundo todo vem apresentando resultados surpreendentes, e que pode contribuir de forma significativa para o desenvolvimento de uma região. Para auferir os dividendos da indústria do turismo é primordial que sejam realizados investimentos no setor, de modo a oferecer as condições básicas para que o mesmo possa se expandir. Estas condições vão desde a infra-estrutura básica até a capacitação da mão-de-obra local. Cabe aqui destacar que é fundamental também que se dê incentivos fiscais e monetários para atrair investidores. E, estas, são ações que cabem, fundamentalmente, à iniciativa governamental. Uma análise comparativa entre o desempenho da indústria do turismo no mundo, no Brasil e na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, pretendeu-se provar que nas circunstâncias atuais, a elaboração e a implementação de políticas públicas são essenciais para a expansão do setor de turismo, e que este é certamente um próspero caminho a ser trilhado pelo nosso país e pela nossa cidade, considerando o enorme potencial turístico de ambos, rumo ao desenvolvimento econômico-social.

Administração de Aposentadoria na Administração Pública no Brasil

Este trabalho objetivou verificar até que ponto os programas de preparo e acompanhamento da aposentadoria tem sido privilegiados na Administração Pública Indireta no Brasil; até que ponto a administração desses programas vem influindo positivamente na produtividade da força de trabalho ativa, bem como, se a administração desses programas está garantindo maior longevidade e satisfação para os aposentados. o estudo abrange quatro órgãos representativos dos ramos de mineração, crédito, telecomunicações e petróleo, com limitação espacial restrita ao Rio de Janeiro, sede dos mesmos, enfocando a ação do programa a partir de sua implantação, até o advento da Lei 8842 de 4 de janeiro de 1994.

Property rights as a public policy tool: an empirical analysis of the social and economic effects

Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. However, the evaluation of the causal effects of land titling is a difficult task. The Brazilian government through a program called "Papel Passado" has issued titles, since 2004, to over 85,000 families and has the goal to reach 750,000. Furthermore, another topic in Public Policy that is crucial to developing economies is income generation and child labor force participation. Particularly, in Brazil, about 5.4 million children and teenagers between 5 and 17 years old are still working. This thesis examines the direct impact of securing a property title on income and child labor force participation. In order to isolate the causal role of ownership security, this study uses a comparison between two close and very similar communities in the City of Osasco case (a town with 650,000 people in the São Paulo metropolitan area). One of them, Jardim Canaã, was fortunated to receive the titles in 2007, the other, Jardim DR, given fiscal constraints, only will be part of the program schedule in 2012, and for that reason became the control group. Also, this thesis also aims to test if there is any relationship between land title and happiness. The estimates suggest that titling results in a substantial decrease of child labor force participation, increase of income and happiness for the families that received the title compared to the others.

Impacto da alfabetização de adultos sobre salário e emprego

Neste trabalho apresentamos evidência sobre os efeitos da alfabetização de adultos na renda e probabilidade de empregos dos indivíduos. Os dados longitudinais disponibilizados pela Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) permitem controlar os efeitos fixos não-observáveis dos indivíduos gerando uma estimação mais robusta e consistente dos efeitos analisados. De modo geral, os resultados deste trabalho indicam retorno de 9,3% em rendimentos para indivíduos que se alfabetizam. Mostramos evidência que sugerem que esse efeito no salário se deve a acréscimos de produtividade e não por um aumento na formalização dos trabalhadores alfabetizados. Ademais, observamos que o efeito na renda é mais proeminente em certos grupos de indivíduos: mulheres, residentes de Salvador e pessoas entre 45 e 60 anos

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

The effect of social security, health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.

New evidence of the causal effect of family size on child quality in a developing country

This paper presents new evidence of the causal effect of family size on child quality in a developing-country context. We estimate the impact of family size on child labor and educational outcomes among Brazilian children and young adults by exploring the exogenous variation of family size driven by the presence of twins in the family. Using the Brazilian Census data for 1991, we nd that the exogenous increase in family size is positively related to labor force participation for boys and girls and to household chores for young women. We also and negative e ects on educational outcomes for boys and girls and negative impacts on human capital formation for young female adults. Moreover, we obtain suggestive evidence that credit and time constraints faced by poor families may explain the findings.

The effects of adult literacy on earnings and employment

This paper provides evidence of the effects of adult literacy on individuals’ income and employability in Brazil based on information obtained from the monthly employment survey (PME). The OLS results indicate that after controlling for observable characteristics, there is a 21.25% increase in wages for individuals who become literate; however, there is no significant impact on employability. Moreover, the findings show an 8.1% increase in the probability of being employed in the formal sector. We also explore the longitudinal structure of the dataset to control for unobservable fixed characteristics of individuals. The fixed-effects estimators show smaller effects compared to the OLS estimators. We find that literacy has a 4.4% effect on wages and a 4.3% impact on the probability of being formally employed. The effects are significantly different from zero.

Essays in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics

This thesis is comprised of three chapters. The first article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of elderly American males and investigates the factors that may account for the changes in retirement between 1950 and 2000. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement. In the second article, I develop an overlapping generations model of criminal behavior, which extends prior research on crime by taking into account individuals' labor supply decisions and the stigma effect that affects convicted offenders, lowering their likelihood of employment. I use the model to guide a quantitative assessment of the determinants of crime and of a counterfactual experiment in which an income redistribution policy is thought as an alternative to greater law enforcement. The model economy considered in this paper is populated by heterogeneous agents who live for a realistic number of periods, have preferences over consumption and leisure, and differ in terms of their age, their skills as well as their employment shocks. In addition, savings may be precautionary and allow partial insurance against the labor income shocks. Because of the lack of full insurance, this model generates an endogenous distribution of wealth across consumers, enabling us to assess the welfare implications of the redistribution policy experiment. I calibrated the model using the US data for 1980 and then use the model to investigate the changes in criminality between 1980 and 1996. The main results that come out of this study are: 1) Law enforcement policy was the most important factor behind the fall in criminality in the period, while the increase in inequality was the most important single factor promoting crime; 2) Stigmatization is not a free-cost crime control policy; 3) Income redistribution can be a powerful alternative policy to fight crime. Finally, the third article studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

Work, study, both or neither? time allocation of Brazilian teenagers

Labor force participation among youth is extremely high in Brazil when compared to countries with a similar economic background. In Argentina and Chile labor force participation, among those with 10 to 14 years old, is around 1% while in Brazil this rate is as high as 17 %. For the those between 15 and 19 years old these figures are around 10% in Chile, 15% in Argentina and 53% in Brazil. On the other hand the data on school attendance give a more optimistic picture. The percentage of children, between 10 and 14 years old, enrolled in school increased steadily from 79% to 95% from 1981 to 1998 and with age between 15 and 19, from 46% to 66% in the same period. These figures are close to the ones presented by Chile and Argentina. around 99% among the youngest group and around 70% for the 15 to 19 years old group. The objective of the paper is to understand the determinants of the time allocation decision of the Brazilian youth during the last twenty years. Using a multinomial logit regression we investigate the conditional effect of various micro and macro variables on the time allocation decision for the 1991 to 1998 period. Our main findings are: working and studying became the most likely allocation among the youngest in the poor rural areas and, in general, to study, whether working or not, became less dependent on family background for the youngest group but not for the older.