Why do bidders drop out from a sequential auction

In actual sequential auctions, 1) bidders typically incur a cost in continuing from one sale to the next, and 2) bidders decide whether or not to continue. To investigate the question "why do bidders drop out," we define a sequential auction model with continuation costs and an endogenously determined number of bidders at each sale, and we characterize the equilibria in this model. Simple examples illustrate the effect of several possible changes to this model.

Microeconomic instability and children's human capital accumulation: the effects of idiosyncratic shocks to father's income on child labor, school drop-outs and repetition rates in Brazil

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of economic instability. In particular, we study the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to father’s income on children’s human capital accumulation variables such as school drop-outs, repetition rates and domestic and non-domestic labor. Although, the problem of child labor in Brazil has declined greatly during the last decade, the number of children working is still substantial. The low levels of educational attainment in Brazil are also a main cause for concern. The large rotating panel data set used allows for the estimation of the impacts of changes in occupational and income status of fathers on changes in his child’s time allocation circumstances. The empirical analysis is restricted to families with fathers, mothers and at least one child between 10 and 15 years of age in the main Brazilian metropolitan areas during the 1982-1999 period. We perform logistic regressions controlling for child characteristics (gender, age, if he/she is behind in school for age), parents characteristics (grade attainment and income) and time and location variables. The main variables analyzed are dynamic proxies of impulses and responses, namely: shocks to household head’s income and unemployment status, on the one hand and child’s probability of dropping out of school, of repeating a grade and of start working, on the other. The findings suggest that father’s income has a significant positive correlation with child’s dropping out of school and of repeating a grade. The findings do not suggest a significant relationship between a father’s becoming unemployed and a child entering the non-domestic labor market. However, the results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between a father becoming unemployed and a child beginning to work in domestic labor. There was also a positive correlation between father becoming unemployed and a child dropping out and repeating a grade. Both gender and age were highly significant with boys and older children being more likely to work, drop-out and repeat grades.

Um estudo sobre as principais causas da evasão na educação a distância-ead

Este trabalho teve como interesse principal verificar quais as principais causas para a evasão, apresentadas pelos cursos a distância, oferecidos pelas instituições brasileiras. O estudo foi realizado a partir de revisões bibliográficas e pesquisa de campo. Na revisão bibliográfica, observa-se que a sociedade brasileira se depara, desde há muito tempo, com a questão da qualidade da educação. É possível acompanhar a mudança de foco das políticas públicas na área da educação: de uma abordagem quantitativa para uma abordagem qualitativa. O estudo apresenta a EAD como uma modalidade de ensino capaz de somar forças para que seja minimizada a questão da oferta de uma educação de qualidade. São mostrados seu surgimento, desenvolvimento e peculiaridades e como o advento da Internet favoreceu o aumento da comunicação digital, aumentando a procura pela EAD. Cada vez mais, a EAD está ganhando força no processo educativo brasileiro. Porém, assim como a educação tradicional, precisa enfrentar inúmeros problemas. Um deles, foco deste trabalho, é o (ainda) alto índice de evasão. Pesquisando as principais causas para o fato, este trabalho conclui que fatores como qualidade da interação entre alunos e professores bem como o reconhecimento da qualidade dos cursos oferecidos devem ser trabalhados por todas as instituições, públicas e privadas que desejem trabalhar com essa modalidade de ensino.

Administrador escolar: especialista ou educador?: uma análise a partir do caso sergipano

A administração da educação pública sergipana se tem submetido as determinações do contexto histórico-estrutural do estado, as quais têm reduzido as escolas públicas a meros espaços de manobras político-partidárias. As direções das instituições escolares são ocupadas, via de regra, por pessoas arbitrariamente indicadas pelo Estado, que estão deixando fluir até a clientela a ideologia da classe dominante. Na hegemonia em curso, seu papel tem sido o de reforço à evasão e seletividade da escola pública e o de controlador da distribuição do saber elaborado junto as crianças oriundas das camadas populares. E nesse sentido não se verifica qualquer diferença a partir da habilitação desses administradores. Considerada a escola pública numa perspectiva progressista e dada a insatisfação geral registrada, sobretudo nas escolas estaduais da capital e municipais do interior do estado, sugere-se dentre outras medidas, que todo o processo de formação do educador enfatize sua possibilidade como organizador de propostas pedagógicas coletivas, vinculadas ao movimento de democratização da sociedade. Isto desde as licenciaturas, às escolas normais e programas especiais de preparação do professor leigo, portanto extrapolando o âmbito das discussões sobre uma habilitação do Curso de Pedagogia. Também se propõe a união de forças da sociedade civil e a deflagração de um amplo processo de discussão na sociedade, a ser desenvolvido por etapas (municipal, micro-regional e estadual) tendo em vista a definição de diretrizes para uma política educacional em Sergipe. A mediação que se espera do organizador da escola é o exercício de uma administração de um direito civil básico de todo e cada cidadão sergipano: o domínio competente do saber social acumulado; essa prática ensejará ao diretor de escolas evoluir da postura de intelectual tradicional para a de intelectual progressista.

Sequential auctions with continuation costs

In actual sequential auctions, 1) bidders typically incur a cost in continuing from one sale to the next, and 2) bidders decide whether or not to continue. To investigate the question "when do bidders drop out," we define a sequential auction model with continuation costs and an endogenously determined number of bidders at each sale, and we characterize the equilibria in this modele Simple examples illustrate the effect of several possible changes to this modele

Some losses brought out by the WTO agreement for TRIPs

The WTO established two rules concerning the international protection of the TRIPs - trade related intellectual property rights, which includes patents and copyrights. One of these rules is the non-discrimination, which has shown to be efficiency-enhancing in the context of trade tariff reductions. The other is the national-treatment commitment rule. We develop in this paper a simple framework to show that the extended version of this rule - which is nowadays being imposed to members - brings out a loss of economic efficiency and a reduction in the levels of protection of intellectual property rights worldwide. As a consequence, it tends to reduce the investments on Research and Development throughout the world. This exactly contradicts the objectives of the Agreement.

The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro

O presente trabalho analisa o comportamento da volatilidade do crescimento do produto brasileiro entre 1980 e 2008, cuja trajetória apresenta um declínio de 70% desde 1991. Através da análise do comportamento do PIB, de seus componentes e de seus determinantes, objetiva-se apontar as razões pela qual a volatilidade do crescimento caiu de forma significativa no período considerado. A baixa volatilidade do crescimento do produto traz conseqüências positivas para o bem-estar da sociedade, para a distribuição de renda e para o crescimento econômico de longo prazo. Diferentes estudos foram realizados para apontar as causas do declínio desta volatilidade em diversos países nas últimas três décadas, fenômeno que nos Estados Unidos passou a ser conhecido como The Great Moderation. Dados os benefícios deste processo, entender as suas razões é imprescindível para a formulação de políticas econômicas que garantam a sustentabilidade da moderação dos ciclos econômicos. Este trabalho concentra-se nos fatores nominais (choques de demanda) para explicar o processo de redução da volatilidade do crescimento brasileiro. De um lado, a ausência de restrições externas ao crescimento econômico e o ciclo de prosperidade mundial dos últimos cinco anos garantiram a contribuição da parcela externa. Por outro lado, a condução de políticas macroeconômicas mais sólidas, refletindo em uma maior estabilidade de variáveis como o nível de preços, respondem pelos fatores internos.

A generalization of judds method of out-steady-state comparisons in perfect foresight models

We show that Judd (1982)’s method can be applied to any finite system, contrary to what he claimed in 1987. An example shows how to employ the technic to study monetary models in presence of capital accumulation.

Price discovery in dual-class shares across multiple markets

We extend the standard price discovery analysis to estimate the information share of dual-class shares across domestic and foreign markets. By examining both common and preferred shares, we aim to extract information not only about the fundamental value of the rm, but also about the dual-class premium. In particular, our interest lies on the price discovery mechanism regulating the prices of common and preferred shares in the BM&FBovespa as well as the prices of their ADR counterparts in the NYSE and in the Arca platform. However, in the presence of contemporaneous correlation between the innovations, the standard information share measure depends heavily on the ordering we attribute to prices in the system. To remain agnostic about which are the leading share class and market, one could for instance compute some weighted average information share across all possible orderings. This is extremely inconvenient given that we are dealing with 2 share prices in Brazil, 4 share prices in the US, plus the exchange rate (and hence over 5,000 permutations!). We thus develop a novel methodology to carry out price discovery analyses that does not impose any ex-ante assumption about which share class or trading platform conveys more information about shocks in the fundamental price. As such, our procedure yields a single measure of information share, which is invariant to the ordering of the variables in the system. Simulations of a simple market microstructure model show that our information share estimator works pretty well in practice. We then employ transactions data to study price discovery in two dual-class Brazilian stocks and their ADRs. We uncover two interesting ndings. First, the foreign market is at least as informative as the home market. Second, shocks in the dual-class premium entail a permanent e ect in normal times, but transitory in periods of nancial distress. We argue that the latter is consistent with the expropriation of preferred shareholders as a class.

Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default

This dissertation analyses quantitatively the costs of sovereign default for the economy, in a model where banks with long positions in government debt play a central role in the financial intermediation for private sector's investments and face financial frictions that limit their leverage ability. Calibration tries to resemble some features of the Eurozone, where discussions about bailout schemes and default risk have been central issues. Results show that the model captures one important cost of default pointed out by empirical and theoretical literature on debt crises, namely the fall in investment that follows haircut episodes, what can be explained by a worsening in banks' balance sheet conditions that limits credit for the private sector and raises their funding costs. The cost in terms of output decrease is though not significant enough to justify the existence of debt markets and the government incentives for debt repayment. Assuming that the government is able to alleviate its constrained budget by imposing a restructuring on debt repayment profile that allows it to cut taxes, our model generates an important difference for output path comparing lump-sum taxes and distortionary. For our calibration, quantitative results show that in terms of output and utility, it is possible that the effect on the labour supply response generated by tax cuts dominates investment drop caused by credit crunch on financial markets. We however abstract from default costs associated to the breaking of existing contracts, external sanctions and risk spillovers between countries, that might also be relevant in addition to financial disruption effects. Besides, there exist considerable trade-offs for short and long run path of economic variables related to government and banks' behaviour.

Social-analytics firms churn out world cup visuals

Three weeks into the world's most famous football tournament, you'd be forgiven for thinking those charts, maps and infographics you've been seeing everywhere were some kind of symptom of your World Cup fever. They are actually the result of a strategy shift by marketing teams in the social-media-measurement space, which have been investing more heavily in designers and content that can show off their products in a visual way.

The revenge of the market on the rentiers why neo-liberal reports of the end of history turned out to be premature

Starting from the perspective of heterodox Keynesian-Minskyian-Kindlebergian financial economics, this paper begins by highlighting a number of mechanisms that contributed to the current financial crisis. These include excess liquidity, income polarisation, conflicts between financial and productive capital, lack of intelligent regulation, asymmetric information, principal-agent dilemmas and bounded rationalities. However, the paper then proceeds to argue that perhaps more than ever the ‘macroeconomics’ that led to this crisis only makes analytical sense if examined within the framework of the political settlements and distributional outcomes in which it had operated. Taking the perspective of critical social theories the paper concludes that, ultimately, the current financial crisis is the outcome of something much more systemic, namely an attempt to use neo-liberalism (or, in US terms, neo-conservatism) as a new technology of power to help transform capitalism into a rentiers’ delight. And in particular, into a system without much ‘compulsion’ on big business; i.e., one that imposes only minimal pressures on big agents to engage in competitive struggles in the real economy (while inflicting exactly the opposite fate on workers and small firms). A key component in the effectiveness of this new technology of power was its ability to transform the state into a major facilitator of the ever-increasing rent-seeking practices of oligopolistic capital. The architects of this experiment include some capitalist groups (in particular rentiers from the financial sector as well as capitalists from the ‘mature’ and most polluting industries of the preceding techno-economic paradigm), some political groups, as well as intellectual networks with their allies – including most economists and the ‘new’ left. Although rentiers did succeed in their attempt to get rid of practically all fetters on their greed, in the end the crisis materialised when ‘markets’ took their inevitable revenge on the rentiers by calling their (blatant) bluff.