Inflationary bias and state owned financial institutions

This article explains why the existence of state owned financial institutions makes it more difficult for a country to balance its budget. We show that states can use their financiaI institutions to transfer their deficits to the federal govemment. As a result, there is a bias towards Iarge deficits and high inflation rates. Our model also predicts that state owned financiaI institutions should underperform the market, mainly because they concentrate their portfolios on non-performing loans to their own shareholders, that is, the states. Brazil and Argentina are two countries with a history of high inflation that confirm our predictions .

Inflationary financing of public investment and economic growth

a theoretical model is constructed in order to explain particular historical experiences in which inflation acceleration apparently helped to spur a period of economic growth. Government financed expenditures affect positively the productivity growth in this model so that the distortionary effect of inflation tax is compensated by the productive effect of public expenditures. We show that for some interval of money creation rates there is an equilibrium where money is valued and where steady state physical capital grows with inflation. It is also shown that zero inflation and growth maximization are never the optimal policies.

Análise dos resultados da aplicação da correção monetária integral pelas companhias abertas no Brasil em 1987: instrução CVM n. 64/87: um estudo exploratório

O principal objetivo, deste estudo é analisar as informações geradas pelos Métodos Legal e Integral de reconhecimento dos efeitos inflacionários nas Demonstrações Contábeis, evidenciando os aspectos qualitativo e quantitativo da informação contábil para fins de avaliação econômico-financeira e patrimonial das companhias abertas do Brasil. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida em uma amostra composta de 87 ( oitenta sete) Demonstrações Contábeis, com o tamanho calculado estatisticamente para atender aos aspectos de aleatoriedade e representatividade. Representando, assim, o universo de 664 (seiscentos sessenta quatro) companhias abertas inscritas na CVM - Comissão de Valores Mobiliários em 31.12.87. Esta pesquisa se diferencia das demais pelo tipo de amostra e universo estudados, uma vez que a aplicação da Contabilidade a Nível Geral de Preços pelas companhias abertas do Brasil é recente. Este método torna as informações contábeis mais realistas e potencialmente capazes de representar a real performance das empresas.

Optimal-state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflationary inertia

This paper examines the output losses caused by disinflation and the role of credibility in a model where pricing mIes are optimal and individual prices are rigid. Individual nominal rigidity is modeled as resulting from menu costs. The interaction between optimal pricing mIes and credibility is essential in determining the inflationary inertia. A continued period of high inflation generates an asymmetric distribution of price deviations, with more prices that are substantially lower than their desired leveIs than prices that are substantially higher than the optimal ones. When disinflation is not credible, inflationary inertia is engendered by this asymmetry: idiosyncratic shocks trigger more upward than downward adjustments. A perfect1y credible disinflation causes an immediate change of pricing rules which, by rendering the price deviation distribution less asymmetric, practically annihilates inflationary inertia. An implication of our model is that stabilization may be sucessful even when credibility is low, provided that it is preceded by a mechanism of price alignment. We also develop an analytical framework for analyzing imperfect credibility cases.

Neww challenges in the luxury universe: an exploratory study of the concept of luxury experience in the Brazilian market from the perspective of brands and consumers: a case study of Pati Piva.

Luxury has evolved over the centuries; new challenges have created questions of appropriate strategies for brands. Experience and authenticity became important aspects in the field: consumers are enjoying more material comfort and there is a trend of a cultural shift for personal fulfillment and aspiration through experience. The biggest challenge for today's luxury marketers is to not only talk to the target, but to understand how the target is shifting, while not alienating consumers and damaging the brand´s image. Considering managers and consumers perspectives separately, it would be possible to conclude that their perceptions are congruent, as many studies have presented. However, if perspectives are put together and compared, different realities could emerge. This exploratory research is based on a case study that describes both perspectives of their perception on luxury experience, consumer behavior and consumption motivations, and luxury retailing. It was developed interviews with the brand owner and 10 brand´s consumers, and also indirect observations in the brands distribution formats. In the brand perspective, the case study has shown that luxury experience involves the construction of brand experience strategy based on products, multiple retail channels, consumer engagement, personal activity, exploration of five senses and other forms. In the consumer´s perspective, results revealed that brand consumers interviwed have different luxury experience perceptions and expectations; however, what is common is that service and quality must be maintained and they reflected the overall experience. Additionally, luxury retailing influences directly the consumer´s perception that must integrate multiple channels to fulfill personal demands. The research makes contributions for both actors - brand and consumer, in the sense that translates theoretical concepts of the experience itself and tries to clarify aspects that are still unknown and explored through the exploration of ways to detect the alignment between brand and consumer expectations of the experience.

Contabilidade com juros reais

Desenvolvem-se neste artigo as bases teóricas da contabilidade com juros reais. A Seção 11 apresenta uma evidência empírica que corrobora, do ponto de vista macroeconômico, a utilização de juros reais no cálculo do déficit público. A Seção 111 descreve a metodologia de cálculo com juros reais. Inicialmente apenas no tocante aos ativos financeiros denominados em moeda doméstica e, em seguida, analisando tambem o caso em que tais ativos se denominam em moeda estrangeira. As seções IV e V visam apenas a exemplificar, tomando-se como base as contas do setor público brasileiro, a utilização da metodologia aqui apresentada. Calcula-se aí, a partir dos dados da dívida líquida do setor público publicados pelo Banco Central, o deficit real do governo e a diferença entre juros nominais e reais liquidamente pagos pela dívida pública. A seção VI• apresenta uma série histórica de imposto inflacionário e transferência inflacionária (a favor dos bancos comerciais) para o Brasil. A Seção VII estende toda a metodologia de cálculo com juros reais à Contabilidade Social. Introduz-se também a contabilidade operacional, onde a discriminação entre juros reais e nominais se estende a todos os ativos financeiros da economia, exceto ã base monetária. Um resultado importante dessa seção é mostrar que as tautologias usualmente utilizadas nas Contas Nacionais são válidas em qualquer contabilidade, seja ela nominal, real ou operacional. Por último, a Seção VIII mostra que todo este arcabouço pode ser visualizado como uma extensão dos mecanismos de correção de lucros das empresas, amplamente utilizados no Brasil desde 1964.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

A note on growth and inflation

A simple exercise on growth and inflationary financing of public expenditures is presented in this note. In a parameterized overlapping generations mode1 where government expenses positivc1y affects the growth rate of human capital, steady state capital and output increase with inflation, reproducing the so called Tobin effect. For large inflation rates, however, government authorities cannot affect real variables and there are only nominal effects. It is also shown that the optimal policy implies some inflation but not growth maximization.

Endogenous time-dependent rules and inflation inertia: preliminary version

When policy rules are changed, the effect of nominal rigidities should be modelled through endogenous pricing rules. We endogenize Taylor (1979) type pricing rule to examine the output effects of monetary disinflations. We derive optimal fixed-price time-dependent rules in inflationary steady states and during disinflations. We also develop a methodology to aggregate individual pricing rules which vary through disinflation. This allows us to reevaluate the output costs of monetary disinflation, including aspects as the role of the initial leveI of inflation and the importance of the degree of credibility of the policy change.

The Brazilian 1994 stabilization plan: an analytical view

The Real Plan has succeeded in stabilizing the Brazilian inflation. The consumer price inflation has been reduced from 11260 percent per year, in June 1994, to an estimate of 8 percent in 1997. The lower inflation resulted in a remarkable income distribution, and in an increased private consumption. The plan managed to control the inflationary effects of the increased demand with some traditional measures: A more liberalized economy, a moving (and overvalued) exchange rate band, high interest rate differentials, and a tight domestic credit policy. The government has, so far failed to accomplish the fiscal adjustment. The price stabilization has largely depended on the current account deficit. However, macroeconomic indicators do not present reasons for concern about the current account sustainability, in the medium-run. The economy may be trapped in a low-growth vicious cycle, represented by a stop-and-go trend, due to the two-way endogencity between domestic saving and growth. Economic growth depends on policies in increase the public sector saving, to secure the privatization of the State enterprises, and to promote investments. The major problem for the government action is, as always, in the political sphere. Approximately 80 percent of the Central Government net revenue are allocated to the social sectors. Consequently, the fiscal reform will hue to deal with the problem of re-designing the public sector’s intervention in the social area. Most probably, it will be inevitable to cut the social area budget. This is politically unpleasant.

Reinventando a si mesmo no fio da carreira: uma reflexão sobre as metamorfoses nas segundas escolhas profissionais

O trabalho propõe uma reflexão sobre as trajetórias profissionais do ponto de vista subjetivo, abordando as "histórias de vida", os relatos daqueles que, por vontade própria, fizeram deslocamentos em suas carreiras ou se encontram em meio a tal processo. O universo pesquisado é constituído por pessoas das camadas médias urbanas, moradoras do município do Rio de Janeiro. A análise tomou como base vinte entrevistas pessoais gravadas, realizadas entre julho de 2004 e junho de 2005. As principais questões discutidas são a relativização da categoria "mudança" quando aplicada à carreira; os sentidos e os significados dos deslocamentos e o modo como a reinvenção profissional se integra a um projeto pessoal de autoconhecimento e autotransformação, nos quais as práticas psicológicas e alternativas contribuem para seu desenvolvimento e fortalecimento. A dimensão analisada é a do sujeito psicológico que possui um projeto individualizador e se reinventa a partir das condições que detém. Para contextualizar o significado que o indivíduo possui na cultura ocidental moderna, a discussão destes temas é precedida por um histórico sobre o indivíduo-valor e sobre o trabalho-valor.

Tantinho, memória em verde e rosa: estudo do processo de construção de uma memória da Favela da Mangueira

O trabalho propõe uma reflexão sobre o processo de construção de memórias, a partirdo estudo de caso do CD 'Tantinho, memória em verde e rosa. A principal metodologia utilizada foi a da história oral, de forma a explorar a narrativa de experiência pessoal como fonte para investigação do processo de construção de memórias. O universo pesquisado é constituído pelos principais agentes sociais envolvidos na construção dessa memória, o que inclui o próprio Tantinho e outros sambistas da favela da Mangueira, assim como outras pessoas envolvidas na viabilização e na produção do CD. Ao todo foram entrevistadas oito pessoas, somando mais de 12 horas de entrevista. Considerando o movimento contemporâneo de fixação de memórias das favelas cariocas a que assistimos e a relevância da favela da Mangueira neste contexto, foi esclarecedor utilizar esse CD para entender os processos e, principalmente, as relações necessárias para essas construções.