A general-equilibrium closed-form solution to the welfare costs of inflation (Forthcoming, Revista Brasileira de Economia)

This work presents closed-form solutions to Lucasís (2000) generalequilibrium expression for the welfare costs of ináation, as well as to the di§erence between the general-equlibrium measure and Baileyís (1956) partial-equilibrium measure. In Lucasís original work only numerical solutions are provided.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

The n-dimensional bailey-divisia measure as a general-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of inflation

This paper shows that in economies with several monies the Bailey-Divisia multidimensional consumers surplus formula may emerge as an exact general-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of in ation, provided that preferences are quasilinear.

Bailey's measure of the welfare costs of infiation as a general-equilibrium measure

Lucas (2000) has ShO\nl t hat Baile,\"'s formula for t hc \\'elfare costs of inflatioIl caIl bc rcgardpd as an approximation to t hc gcneral-equilibriuIll IllCaSllH'S \\"hich emerge from thc Sidrauski anrl the shopping-time models, In this paper \\'c shm\' that Baile~"s mcaSllrc can bc cxactly obtairlf'd in tllf' Siclrauski geIleral-equilibri1lIn framp\\'ork under the assUIllption of quasilinpar prefpreIlC'cs, The rpslllt. based on ",heter or not \\'Palt h pffpcts are incorporatccl into t hp analysis, is also helpful in darif\'ing \\'hy Lucas' Illeasurp clerin'd from the Siclrauski model turns 01lt to be aIl upper bOllIlcl to Bailp~"s, T,,'o eXaInplcs arp used to illustratc t he main C'ondusions,

Moral hazard and nonlinear pricing in a general equilibrium model

The paper analyzes a two period general equilibrium model with individual risk and moral hazard. Each household faces two individual states of nature in the second period. These states solely differ in the household's vector of initial endowments, which is strictly larger in the first state (good state) than in the second state (bad state). In the first period households choose a non-observable action. Higher leveis of action give higher probability of the good state of nature to occur, but lower leveIs of utility. Households have access to an insurance market that allows transfer of income across states of oature. I consider two models of financiaI markets, the price-taking behavior model and the nonlínear pricing modelo In the price-taking behavior model suppliers of insurance have a belief about each household's actíon and take asset prices as given. A variation of standard arguments shows the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium. For a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constraíned sub-optímal: there are commodity prices and a reallocation of financiaI assets satisfying the first period budget constraint such that, at each household's optimal choice given those prices and asset reallocation, markets clear and every household's welfare improves. In the nonlinear pricing model suppliers of insurance behave strategically offering nonlinear pricing contracts to the households. I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and investigate the optimality properties of the modeI. If there is a single commodity then every equilibrium is constrained optimaI. Ir there is more than one commodity, then for a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constrained sub-optimaI.

General equilibrium model with restricted participation in financial markets

The paper analyses a general equilibrium model with financiaI markets in which households may face restrictions in trading financiaI assets such as borrowing constraints and collateral (restricted participation model). However, markets are not assumed to be incomplete. We consider a standard general equilibrium model with H > 1 households, 2 periods and S states of nature in the second period. We show that generically the set of equilibrium allocations ia indeterminate, provided the existence of at least one nominal asset and one household for who some restriction is binding. Suppose there are C > 1 commodities in each state of nature and assets pays in units of some commodity. In this case for each household with binding restrictions it is possible to reduce the set of feasible assets trading and obtain a new equilibrium that utility improve alI those households. There is however an upper bound on the number of households to be improved related to the number of states of nature and the number of commodities. In particular, if the number of households ia smaller than the number of states of nature it is possible to Pareto improve any equilibrium by reducing the feasible choice set for each household.

Monetary dynamics in a general equilibrium version of the Baumol-Tobin model

I study the welfare cost of inflation and the effect on prices after a permanent increase in the interest rate. In the steady state, the real money demand is homogeneous of degree one in income and its interest-rate elasticity is approximately equal to −1/2. Consumers are indifferent between an economy with 10% p.a. inflation and one with zero inflation if their income is 1% higher in the first economy. A permanent increase in the interest rate makes the price level to drop initially and inflation to adjust slowly to its steady state level.

Impacts of the proposals for tariff reductions in non-agricultural market access (Nama)

O Estudo Visa Avaliar os Impactos de Propostas Alternativas de Redução da Proteção Tarifária de Bens Não-Agrícolas Sobre a Economia Brasileira Usando um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável. Foram Simulados os Impactos da Implementação de Cortes Tarifários de Acordo com Diferentes Coeficientes para a Fórmula Suíça. as Simulações Foram Realizadas com o Modelo Gtap e Todos os Choques Tarifários Foram Calculados a Partir de Informações da Base de Dados Macmap. Além de Analisar Resultados Macroeconômicos e Setoriais, Também foi Testada a Sensibilidade dos Resultados em Relação ao Aumento das Elasticidades de Armington e À Ocorrência de uma Simultânea Liberalização de Tarifas Sobre Bens Agrícolas.

Impacto de entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul: uma simulação com modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

O Objetivo deste Estudo é Avaliar os Impactos da Entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul Utilizando para Tanto o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável Multi-Setorial e Multi-Regional Denominado Global Trade Analysis Project (Gtap). Além da Introdução, o Estudo Está Dividido em Outras 5 Seções. na Seção 2, são Analisados os Documentos Mais Relevantes Assinados Pelos Estados-Parte, Ressaltando a Relativa Rapidez da Assinatura do Acordo de Adesão da Venezuela ao Bloco; na Seção 3, Descreve-Se o Estado Atual do Fluxo de Comércio entre Venezuela e Mercosul, Assim como as Condições de Acesso a Mercados, Ressaltando a Importância da Venezuela para o Mercosul e a Proteção Ligeiramente Maior Aplicada Pela Economia Venezuelana Quando Comparada com a do Mercosul. na Seção Seguinte, Descrevem-Se os Choques Tarifários Implementados em Três Simulações, Representativas da Adesão da Venezuela ao Mercosul, Além de Hipóteses de Fechamento do Modelo. na Seção 5, os Resultados da Simulação são Apresentados e Discutidos. Sinteticamente, Chama-Se À Atenção para o Aumento de Bem Estar nos Países Envolvidos e o Significativo Impacto Setorial, Especialmente nos Setores de Automóveis, Máquinas e Equipamentos e Têxteis e Vestuário. uma Última Seção Sumaria as Principais Conclusões do Trabalho.

Modelo de equilibrio geral para simulação de políticas de distribuição de renda e crescimento no Brasil

Apresenta os resultados de um projeto de pesquisa que tem como objetivo a construção de um Modelo Aplicado de Equilíbrio Geral para a Economia Brasileira ("Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model"), voltado para a simulação de políticas públicas de crescimento e distribuição de renda. Após a caracterização e apresentação do modelo adotado ("Brasil CGE 95"), são realizadas treze simulações, onde comparam-se os resultados do ano base (95) com os obtidos em cada experimento, incluindo: indicadores macroeconômicos (PIB, Consumo, Déficit Público, Balança ComerciaL.), a remuneração anual dos dez fatores de produção do modelo (oito tipos de trabalho, dois tipos de capital ), a renda anual dos nove grupos de famílias do modelo, indicadores de pobreza/distribuição e indicadores variados como o emprego/produção setorial, taxa de câmbio real e o índice relativo de preços

Tourism and poverty relief

This paper examines the issue of how tourism affects poverty in the context of the effects of tourism on an economy as a whole and on particular sectors within it. A framework for analysing the channels through which tourism affects different households is developed, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy is used to examine the economic impact and distributional effects of tourism in Brazil. It is shown that the effects on all income groups are positive. The lowest income households benefit from tourism but by less than some higher income groups. Policies that could redistribute greater shares of the revenue to the poor are considered.

Relações comerciais entre Brasil e China : uma análise de bem-estar a partir de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

O propósito deste trabalho é examinar possíveis ganhos de bem-estar provenientes de arranjos comerciais entre Brasil e China sob a ótica de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o chamado “modelo GTAP” (sigla para Global Trade Analysis Project). Com base em uma descrição extensiva das estruturas econômicas e comerciais dos países e das Vantagens Comparativas de cada um deles, é possível simular acordos preferenciais de comércio e analisar os resultados de bem-estar por meio da medida de Variação Equivalente. Outro aspecto referente ao comércio sino-brasileiro que pode ser avaliado pela medida de bem-estar é o desalinhamento cambial dos dois países e as consequências deste para as transações comerciais entre ambos. Utilizando o mesmo ferramental anteriormente citado, o trabalho busca avaliar o impacto de tal desalinhamento no bem-estar dos países, uma vez que o câmbio seja corrigido via ajuste tarifário.

Tax reform under fiscal stress: a CGE analysis of the Brazilian tax reform

In spite of a general agreement over the distortion imposed by the current Brazilian tax system, attempts to reform it during the last decade have faced several restrictions to its implementation. Two of these restrictions were particular binding: a) fiscal adjustment restriction (public sector debt cannot increase), b) fiscal federalist restriction (revenues from individual states and municipalities cannot decrease). This paper focuses on a specific reform that overcomes in principle the fiscal federalist restriction. Using Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) model calibrated for the Brazilian economy, I analyze the short and long run macroeconomic effects of this reform subject to the fiscal adjustment restriction. Finally, I look at the redistributive effects of this reform among generations as a way to infer about public opinion’s reaction to the reform. The reform consists basically of replacing indirect taxes on corporate revenues, which I show to be equivalent to a symmetric tax on labor and capital income, by a new federal VAT. The reform presented positive macroeconomic effects both in the short and long run. Despite a substantial increase in the average VAT rate in the first years after the reform, a majority of cohorts experienced an increase in their lifetime welfare, being potentially in favour of the reform.

Análise econômica da reforma fiscal do PIS e da COFINS: integrando um modelo de micro-simulação com um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

Neste texto é apresentado o relatório final do projeto 561/06, “Análise Econômica da Reforma Fiscal do PIS-COFINS: Integrando um modelo de micro-simulação com um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável”. Essencialmente trata-se de uma extensão metodológica do projeto 461/04, visando um aprimoramento da quantificação dos impactos sobre indicadores de bem estar, particularmente pobreza e desigualdade. Além do modelo de Equilíbrio Geral, busca-se uma integração com um modelo de micro-simulação, baseado nas pesquisas domiciliares com o intuito de aprofundar e identificar o impacto que a reforma fiscal teve sobre indivíduos e famílias brasileiras, fazendo com estes sejam identificados com uma precisão muito maior, na medida em que a pesquisa anterior permitia apenas a identificação de um agrupamento representativo da população brasileira, enquanto esta permite a integração no modelo das amostras individuais presentes na PNAD. Os resultados apresentados são sensíveis a nova metodologia utilizada.

Impacto de propostas de redução de tarifas em bens não agrícolas (NAMA)

O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar, por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, multi-setorial e multi-regional, os impactos de uma redução das tarifas dos bens não agrícolas sobre a economia brasileira, a partir da Fórmula Suíça, com diferentes coeficientes. O modelo de equilíbrio geral utilizado é o Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) e os cortes de tarifas foram estimados a partir de dados do MAcMap. Além dos impactos macroeconômicos e setoriais, testou-se a sensibilidade do modelo ao aumento das elasticidades de Armington e à implementação de liberalização tarifária agrícola.