Como tomadores de decisão experts percebem cenários complexos?

In this thesis, the basic research of Chase and Simon (1973) is questioned, and we seek new results by analyzing the errors of experts and beginners chess players in experiments to reproduce chess positions. Chess players with different levels of expertise participated in the study. The results were analyzed by a Brazilian grandmaster, and quantitative analysis was performed with the use of statistical methods data mining. The results challenge significantly, the current theories of expertise, memory and decision making in this area, because the present theory predicts piece on square encoding, in which players can recognize the strategic situation reproducing it faithfully, but commit several errors that the theory can¿t explain. The current theory can¿t fully explain the encoding used by players to register a board. The errors of intermediary players preserved fragments of the strategic situation, although they have committed a series of errors in the reconstruction of the positions. The encoding of chunks therefore includes more information than that predicted by current theories. Currently, research on perception, trial and decision is heavily concentrated on the idea of pattern recognition". Based on the results of this research, we explore a change of perspective. The idea of "pattern recognition" presupposes that the processing of relevant information is on "patterns" (or data) that exist independently of any interpretation. We propose that the theory suggests the vision of decision-making via the recognition of experience.

Autodeterminação local e desenvolvimento: uma análise da dinâmica social no município de São Roque de Minas

In this thesis, the basic research of Chase and Simon (1973) is questioned, and we seek new results by analyzing the errors of experts and beginners chess players in experiments to reproduce chess positions. Chess players with different levels of expertise participated in the study. The results were analyzed by a Brazilian grandmaster, and quantitative analysis was performed with the use of statistical methods data mining. The results challenge significantly, the current theories of expertise, memory and decision making in this area, because the present theory predicts piece on square encoding, in which players can recognize the strategic situation reproducing it faithfully, but commit several errors that the theory can¿t explain. The current theory can¿t fully explain the encoding used by players to register a board. The errors of intermediary players preserved fragments of the strategic situation, although they have committed a series of errors in the reconstruction of the positions. The encoding of chunks therefore includes more information than that predicted by current theories. Currently, research on perception, trial and decision is heavily concentrated on the idea of 'pattern recognition'. Based on the results of this research, we explore a change of perspective. The idea of 'pattern recognition' presupposes that the processing of relevant information is on 'patterns' (or data) that exist independently of any interpretation. We propose that the theory suggests the vision of decision-making via the recognition of experience.

Efeitos positivos e deteriorativos em psicoterapia: um levantamento critico da evidencia empírica

Este trabalho teve por objetivo analisar a evidência empírica dos efeitos positivos e deteriorativos em psicoterapia, sem cingir-se a nenhuma corrente psicoterápica, de forma particular. Autores das mais variadas tendências, vêm, nos últimos anos, se indagando até que ponto devem permanecer inquestionados os resultados das psicoterapias. Uma das preocupações constantes dos pesquisadores nesta área, vem sendo a de identificar e determinar empiricamente a presença de efeitos em psicoterapia. Em sendo assim, uma questão foi levantada: existirá, atualmente, evidência empírica que comprove, de maneira inequívoca, que a psicoterapia exerce sobre seus clientes, efeitos tanto para melhor quanto para pior? Utilizando-se a revisão de vários especialistas foi realizado um estudo crítico, baseado na orientação de STRUPP, HADLEY & GOMES-SCHNARTZ (1977), em que, ao invés de se tomar cada trabalho separadamente, especificaram-se vários tipos de erros ou deficiências que comprometem a validade dos resultados, identificando as investigações que pertencem a cada categoria. Foram exploradas as implicações clínicas, teóricas e sociais dos estudos em questão. Por se tratar de campo ainda incipiente, com publicações recentes e estudos por vezes inconclusivos, as questões levantadas devem ser encaradas com as naturais reservas, ressaltando-se ainda que, em um único estudo bibliográfico, seria pretensão inalcançável, incluir toda evidência a respeito do assunto.