Mania de estado: o chaguismo e a estadualização da Guanabara

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor uma revisão do papel do chaguismo e do exgovernador Chagas Freitas na política carioca. A idéia principal é mostrar que a ênfase por ele conferida à política local resultou do seu projeto de estadualizar a Guanabara – que até então se mantivera como capital de fato do país. Quando Chagas assumiu o governo, em 1971, a Guanabara era um estado-capital. O projeto de transformar a mais nova unidade da federação em um estado como os demais respondia, também, às expectativas daquele momento de endurecimento do regime militar – interessado em retirar definitivamente da cidade do Rio de Janeiro os atributos de capital e transferi-los para Brasília. O efetivo processo de esvaziamento das funções de capital até então exercidas pela Guanabara tinha como contrapartida o investimento na sua estadualização. Para a discussão destas hipóteses de trabalho, contamos com os depoimentos orais concedidos ao Setor de História Oral do CPDOC-FGV por um expressivo grupo de políticos cariocas e fluminenses. Deste conjunto, julgamos especialmente relevantes os depoimentos do vice-governador, Erasmo Martins Pedro, e do secretário de Planejamento, Francisco de Mello Franco – que mantiveram uma relação bastante próxima com Chagas Freitas durante o seu governo na Guanabara (1971-75).

New evidence on trade liberalization and productivity growth

Although the subject of a large number of studies, the debate on the links between trade reform and productivity growth is still unresolved and most studies at the micro level have not been able to establish a relationship between the two phenomena. Brazil provides a natural experiment to study this issue that is seldom available: it was one of the closest economies in the world until 1988, when trade reform was launched, and intra-industry data are available on an annual basis before, during and after liberalization. Using a panel of industry sectors this paper tests and measures the impact of trade reform on productivity growth. Results confirm the association between the former and the latter and show that the magnitude of the impact of tariff reduction on the growth rates of TFP and output per worker was substantial. Our data reveal large and widespread productivity improvement, so that the estimations in this paper are an indication that liberalization had an important effect on industrial performance in the country. Cross-sectional differences in protection are also investigated.

Brazil’s 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory

Brazil is growing around 1% per capita a year from 1981; this means for a country that is supposed to catch up, quasi-stagnation. Four historical new facts explain why growth was so low after the Real Plan: the reduction of public savings, and three facts that reduce private investments: the end of the unlimited supply of labor, a very high interest rate, and the 1990 dismantling of the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease, which represented a major competitive disadvantage for the manufacturing industry. New-developmental theory offers an explanation and two solutions for the problem, but does not underestimate the political economy problems involved