Banking efficiency, governance and financial regulation in Brazil

The paper analyses some dimensions of the relationship between banking efficiency, macroeconomic environment and financial regulation, with special focus on Brazil.

Comparando a saúde no Brasil com os países da OCDE: explorando dados de saúde pública

A atenção à saúde da população no Brasil gera um grande volume de dados sobre os serviços de saúde prestados. O tratamento adequado destes dados com técnicas de acesso à grande massa de dados pode permitir a extração de informações importantes para um melhor conhecimento do setor saúde. Avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas de saúde através da utilização da massa de dados produzida tem sido uma tendência mundial, uma vez que vários países já mantêm programas de avaliação baseados em dados e indicadores. Neste contexto, A OCDE – Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico, que é uma organização internacional que avalia as políticas econômicas de seus 34 países membros, possui uma publicação bienal, chamada Health at a Glance, que tem por objetivo fazer a comparação dos sistemas de saúde dos países membros da OCDE. Embora o Brasil não seja um membro, a OCDE procura incluí-lo no cálculo de alguns indicadores, quando os dados estão disponíveis, pois considera o Brasil como uma das maiores economias que não é um país membro. O presente estudo tem por objetivo propor e implementar, com base na metodologia da publicação Health at a Glance de 2015, o cálculo para o Brasil de 22 indicadores em saúde que compõem o domínio “utilização de serviços em saúde” da publicação da OCDE. Para isto foi feito um levantamento das principais bases de dados nacionais em saúde disponíveis que posteriormente foram capturadas, conforme necessidade, através de técnicas para acessar e tratar o grande volume de dados em saúde no Brasil. As bases de dados utilizadas são provenientes de três principais fontes remuneração: SUS, planos privados de saúde e outras fontes de remuneração como, por exemplo, planos públicos de saúde, DPVAT e particular. A realização deste trabalho permitiu verificar que os dados em saúde disponíveis publicamente no Brasil podem ser usados na avaliação do desempenho do sistema de saúde, e além de incluir o Brasil no benchmark internacional dos países da OCDE nestes 22 indicadores, promoveu a comparação destes indicadores entre o setor público de saúde do Brasil, o SUS, e o setor de planos privados de saúde, a chamada saúde suplementar. Além disso, também foi possível comparar os indicadores calculados para o SUS para cada UF, demonstrando assim as diferenças na prestação de serviços de saúde nos estados do Brasil para o setor público. A análise dos resultados demonstrou que, em geral, o Brasil comparado com os países da OCDE apresenta um desempenho abaixo da média dos demais países, o que indica necessidade de esforços para atingir um nível mais alto na prestação de serviços em saúde que estão no âmbito de avaliação dos indicadores calculados. Quando segmentado entre SUS e saúde suplementar, a análise dos resultados dos indicadores do Brasil aponta para uma aproximação do desempenho do setor de saúde suplementar em relação à média dos demais países da OCDE, e por outro lado um distanciamento do SUS em relação a esta média. Isto evidencia a diferença no nível de prestação de serviços dentro do Brasil entre o SUS e a saúde suplementar. Por fim, como proposta de melhoria na qualidade dos resultados obtidos neste estudo sugere-se o uso da base de dados do TISS/ANS para as informações provenientes do setor de saúde suplementar, uma vez que o TISS reflete toda a troca de informações entre os prestadores de serviços de saúde e as operadoras de planos privados de saúde para fins de pagamento dos serviços prestados.

Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for the catch-up in developing countries

This document represents a doctoral thesis held under the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration of Getulio Vargas Foundation (EBAPE/FGV), developed through the elaboration of three articles. The research that resulted in the articles is within the scope of the project entitled “Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for catch-up in developing countries”, funded by Support Programme for Research and Academic Production of Faculty (ProPesquisa) of Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) of Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Os fundos patrimoniais endowment no Brasil

The present study aims to provide a wide panorama of the endowment funds in Brazil, addressing not only the concept of this kind of fund and its role in the development context of the Brazilian third sector, but also the current legal barriers that hinder the full consolidation of the endowment as an important tool for the sustainable management of nonprofit organizations’ assets. The methodology adopted for this purpose relies on a course that goes from a more abstract approach – the gathering and analysis of the (actual and expected) legislation concerning the endowment funds – and ends with a more concrete one – the study of the demands and challenges faced by a few endowments funds based in the state of São Paulo that were interviewed by the author.

Relations between regulation, competition policy and consumer protection in telecommunications, electricity and water supply

The purpose of this article is to discuss the relations between regulation, competition policy and consumer protection these relations in three key sectors of Brazil’s infrastructure: telecommunications, electricity and water supply. A study of the literature points to two general principles. First, the need for consumer protection depends on the “degree of sovereignty” enjoyed by consumers, defined in terms of the cost of consumer organization, consumers’ ability to evaluate services, and the level of competition in each sector. Second, the less sovereignty consumers enjoy the more consumer protection institutions are involved with regulation agencies. The evidence for the Brazilian case apparently corroborates these points. In addition, it is important to stress that consumer complaints in regulated sectors seem to have increased more intensely than in others. The article is divided into three sections. Section 1 presents theoretical elements and aspects of the relations between regulation, competition policy and consumer protection evidenced by international experience. Section 2 analyzes the Brazilian experience and in particular the available statistics on consumer complaints about telecommunications, electricity and water supply, submitted to Fundação Procon-SP during the nineties. The last section points to possible configurations of the institutional relations between competition policy, regulation and consumer protection, showing how the existing configuration of these areas in the three infrastructure sectors discussed confirms that the theoretical framework proposed has reasonable predictive power.

The effects of trust in Brazilian PNPs: interpersonal and interorganizational trust in the cultural sector social organizations in São Paulo, Brazil

This study seeks to evaluate how enterorganizational and interpersonal trust affects the degree of State interference in the operations of public-nonprofit partnerships (PNPs). We conducted a qualitative case study in two Brazilian PNPs, Projeto Guri and Orquestra Sinfônica do Estado de São Paulo, through documental analysis and semi-structured interviews. Content analysis of the data yielded a trust framework that begins to explain how a variety of factors, including the protective qualities of the management contract and the strength of the board, moderate the relationship between interpersonal and interorganizational trust in PNPs. The study reveals that unlike Zaheer et al (1998), interpersonal trust had a unique and prominent effect on State interference and types of collaboration in PNPs. Parting from the suggestions by previous authors to contextualize PNP literature findings, the framework takes into account the highly personalistic qualities of Brazilian culture as well as historical and institutional context while highlighting the crucial role of interpersonal trust in Brazilian PNPs.

Future cenario planning in Brazilian logistics and transportation sector

Nas últimas décadas o setor de logística passou por grandes transformações pelo mundo. Assim, a eficiência do sistema logístico é importante para o crescimento econômico, a diversificação, redução dos custos operacionais e da pobreza. Segundo o Banco Mundial, o Brasil tornou-se uma das maiores economias do mundo, mas os custos logísticos elevados colocam em risco esse crescimento. Estes custos são em grande parte o resultado de diferenças em infraestrutura de cada região, juntamente com os encargos do setor rodoviário, que corresponde por 60% do total do transporte de carga do país. Entretanto, a logística brasileira está às portas de uma nova revolução, em práticas de negócios e eficiência, e também na qualidade e disponibilidade da infraestrutura de transportes e comunicações, e novos projetos e práticas para superar a situação. O objetivo deste estudo não é analisar o presente e as atuais tendências de logística do Brasil e do setor de transporte, mas sim modelar possíveis cenários futuros para os próximos anos. Em outras palavras, este trabalho mostra diferentes possibilidades de como o setor de logística e transporte poderá ser no futuro. Para isso, este trabalho irá utilizar a metodologia de cenários prospectivos e entrevistas com especialistas relacionados da área.

Effects of the real plan of the Brazilian banking system

The aim of this paper is to assess the progress of the banking sector before and shortly after the Real Plan. We began by assessing the drop in the inflation revenues (negative real interest rates paid by the excess of demand deposits over total reserve requirements) as a result of the change in inflation from 40% a month for the pre-Real Plan period to a monthly average of 3.65% (IGP-DI), between July 1994 and May 1995. Then, using the financial statement data of a group of 90 banks, we attempt to estimate the net losses due to the inflation drop analyzing the profitability and other parameters of the banking industry. The calculations are made separately for private, state and federal banks. A later analysis on performance using information given to CVM (Securities Exchange Commission) by the six major private banks in the country is also discussed herein.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

The Brazilian 1994 stabilization plan: an analytical view

The Real Plan has succeeded in stabilizing the Brazilian inflation. The consumer price inflation has been reduced from 11260 percent per year, in June 1994, to an estimate of 8 percent in 1997. The lower inflation resulted in a remarkable income distribution, and in an increased private consumption. The plan managed to control the inflationary effects of the increased demand with some traditional measures: A more liberalized economy, a moving (and overvalued) exchange rate band, high interest rate differentials, and a tight domestic credit policy. The government has, so far failed to accomplish the fiscal adjustment. The price stabilization has largely depended on the current account deficit. However, macroeconomic indicators do not present reasons for concern about the current account sustainability, in the medium-run. The economy may be trapped in a low-growth vicious cycle, represented by a stop-and-go trend, due to the two-way endogencity between domestic saving and growth. Economic growth depends on policies in increase the public sector saving, to secure the privatization of the State enterprises, and to promote investments. The major problem for the government action is, as always, in the political sphere. Approximately 80 percent of the Central Government net revenue are allocated to the social sectors. Consequently, the fiscal reform will hue to deal with the problem of re-designing the public sector’s intervention in the social area. Most probably, it will be inevitable to cut the social area budget. This is politically unpleasant.

Brazilian regional development distribution, evidences for socio-economic policy

As to many Latin american countries, the impacts of the recent economic globalization on the Brazilian economy have revealed a diversified tendency in spatial development when regional economic indicators are observed. This is due to the specificities or each region, as regard their sector structure, the availability of human resources and the degree of technological innovation undertaken by local enterprises. From a situation of regional inequalities observed in lhe socio-economic levels of development at the beginning of the eighties the dynamics of the Brazilian regional evolution has presented different speeds and intensities in the several spaees. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of Brazilian regional development during the 1985-95 period and the impacts over the working population and regional disparities in order to offer some elements to assist social and economic policy. For this purpose Dispersion Quotients and Dispersion lntensity Coefficients were calculated based on two variables, the Regional Gross Domestic Product anel the Working Population. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of considerable regional disparities and it was observed that thc sector and regional redistribution of the GDP indicate that in a general way, no remarkable changes occurred in the regional development in the period. The results show that although the economic policies did stimulate a global convergence process of the per capita product among regions, those policies did not attenuate economic dynamism concentration to the desired extent.

Productive restructuring: effects on Brazilian regional development distribution

This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of Brazilian regional development during the 1985-95 period. First, regional inequalities indexes were calculated for the whole country’s economy based on the per capita regional income (Williamson Inequality Index), in order to test the convergence or divergence. After this, the analysis aimed to verify the sector and regional dynamics in a more detailed exam, and for this purpose Dispersion Quotients and Dispersion Intensity Coefficients were calculated based on two variables, the Regional Gross Domestic Product and the Working Population. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of considerable regional disparities and it was verified that the sector and regional redistribution of the GDP indicate that, in a general way, no remarkable changes occurred in the regional productive structures in the period. It is also inferred that the economic policy at that period, in spite of resulting in a global regional convergence process of the per capita product, did not avoid the continuation of the concentration of greater economic dynamism in the most advanced regions, nor did it diminish in any considerable way the difference in the degree of development of the Northeast region.

Segmentation in the brazilian labor market

This paper measures the degree of segmentation in the brazilian labor market. Controlling for observable and unobservable characteristics, workers earn more in the formal sector, which supports the segmentation hypothesis. We break down the degree of segmentation by socio-economic attributes to identify the groups where this phenomenon is more prevalent. We investigate the robustness of our findings to the inclusion of self-employed individuals, and apply a two-stage panel probit model using the self-selection correction strategy to investigate a potential weakness of the fixed-effects estimator

Pharmaceutical patent bargains: the Brazilian experience

In the backdrop of the strict patent regime flatly adopted by the World Trade Organization (WTO) for all countries, a few countries constantly challenge this system through aggressive patent bargains. Within the pharmaceutical sector, noticeably, some countries now threaten to issue or otherwise actually issue compulsory licenses that may sway large pharmaceutical companies into selling drugs with large discounts or into granting voluntary licenses domestically. That is conspicuously the negotiation strategy adopted by Brazil in its negotiations with big international pharmaceutical companies.This paper explains Brazil’s aggressive bargaining approach based on an analysis of two aspects of its political economy. The first has to do with the international context of patent bargaining in the post-WTO era. Accordingly, the existence of large and fast growing domestic markets position countries such as Brazil as strategic destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade. Together with an absence of a propensity to innovate in pharmaceutical products, these conditions boost Brazil’s bargaining power for issuing compulsory licenses over pharmaceutical products. The second aspect is related to political economy dynamics inside Brazil. Accordingly, the political framework in Brazil undermines long-term policies and favors short-sighted ones also vis-a-vis R&D investments in the pharmaceutical industry. This remains true regardless of the strictness of the patent regime in place. The lesson of Brazil is relevant arguably for other more powerful developing countries which presently examine Brazil's approach while further challenging the WTO's strict patent policy for the future.

Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.