Conditional cash transfers, schooling and child labor : micro-simulating bolsa escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.

From public to private : the performance of former public workers in the Brazilian labor market

This paper analyzes the placement in the private sector of a subset of Brazilian public-sector employees. This group left public employment in the mid-1990’s through a voluntary severance program. This paper contrasts their earnings before and after quitting the public sector, and compares both sets of wages to public and private sector earnings for similar workers. We find that participants in this voluntary severance program suffered a significant reduction in average earnings wage and an increase in earnings dispersion. We test whether the reduction in average earnings and the increase in earnings dispersion is the expected outcome once one controls for observed characteristics, by means of counterfactual simulations. Several methods of controlling for observed characteristics (parametric and non-parametrically) are used for robustness. The results indicate that this group of workers was paid at levels below what would be expected given their embodied observable characteristics.

Skilled labor, unskilled labor, and economic growth

We assess the effects of the imperfect substitution between skilled and unskilled labor on economic growth in a model in which physical capital and skilled labor can be accumulated. It is shown that economies with higher substitutability between skilled and unskilled labor have higher levels of income per capita in the transition and in the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, these economies have a higher level of skilled labor and a higher level of capital intensity in the long-run equilibrium. For certain parameters values, the speed of convergence depends positively on the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labor.

Is child labor harmful? the impact of working as a child on adult earnings

This paper explores the question: is working as young laborer harmful to an individual in terms of adult outcomes in income? This question is explored through the utilization of a unique set of instruments that control for the decision to work as a child and the decision of how much schooling to acquire. These instruments are combined with two large household survey data sets from Brazil that include retrospective information on the child labor and schooling of working-age adults: the 1988 and 1996 PNAD. Estimations of the reduced form earnings model are performed first by using OLS without controlling for the potential endogeneity of child labor and schooling, and then by using a GMM estimation of instrumental variables models that include the set of instruments for child labor and schooling. The findings of the empirical investigations show that child labor has large negative impact on adult earnings for both male and female children even when controlling for schooling. In addition, the negative impact of starting to work as a child reverses at around age 14. Finally, different child labor activities are examined to determine if some are beneficial while others harmful with the finding that working in agriculture as a child appears to have no negative impact over and above the loss of education.

Labor earnings dynamics in post-stabilization Brazil

This paper analyzes both the levels and evolution of wage inequality in the Brazilian formal labor market using administrative data from the Brazilian Ministry of Labor (RAIS) from 1994 to 2009. After the covariance structure of the log of real weekly wages is estimated and the variance of the log of real weekly wages is decomposed into its permanent and transitory components, we verify that nearly 60% of the inequality within age and education groups is explained by the permanent component, i.e., by time-invariant individual productive characteristics. During this period, wage inequality decreased by 29%. In the rst years immediately after the macroeconomic stabilization (1994

The long-term effects of conditional cash transfers on child labor and school enrollment

This paper investigates the long-term e ects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Fam lia. Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare.

Information mining and visualization of data from the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF): a case study

EMAp - Escola de Matemática Aplicada

Optimal Mirrleesian taxation in non-competitive labor markets

We study optimal labor income taxation in non-competitive labor markets. Firms offer screening contracts to workers who have private information about their productivity. A planner endowed with a Paretian social welfare function tries to induce allocations that maximize its objective. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for implementation of constrained efficient allocations using tax schedules. All allocations that are implementable by a tax schedule display negative marginal tax rates for almost all workers. Not all allocations that are implementable in a competitive setting are implementable in this noncompetitive environment.

Essays on corporate restructuring

Esta tese tem por objetivo examinar as características do processo de decisão em que credores optam pela recuperação judicial ou liquidação da empresa em dificuldade financeira. O trabalho está dividido em quatro capítulos. No segundo capítulo, apresenta-se, de forma sistematizada, referencial teórico e evidências empíricas para apontar resultados importantes sobre estudos desenvolvidos nas áreas de recuperação de empresas e falência. O capítulo também apresenta três estudos de caso com o propósito de mostrar a complexidade de cada caso no que diz respeito à concentração de recursos, conflito de interesse entre as classes de credores e a decisão final sobre a aprovação ou rejeição do plano de recuperação judicial. No terceiro capítulo, analisam-se os determinantes do atraso pertinente à votação do plano de recuperação judicial. O trabalho propõe um estudo empírico dos atrasos entre 2005 e 2014. Os resultados sugerem que: (i) maior concentração da dívida entre as classes de credores possui relação com atrasos menores; (ii) maior quantidade de bancos para votar o plano de recuperação judicial possui relação com maiores atrasos; (iii) o atraso médio na votação diminui quando apenas uma classe de credores participa da votação do plano; (iv) credores trabalhistas e com garantia real atrasam a votação quando o valor dos ativos para garantir a dívida em caso de liquidação é maior; (v) o atraso médio na votação é maior em casos de pior desempenho do setor de atuação do devedor, sendo solicitado pelas classes quirografária e com garantia real; e (vi) a proposta de venda de ativos é o principal tópico discutido nas reuniões de votação do plano nos casos em que o atraso na votação é maior. Por fim, no quarto capítulo, apresenta-se evidência sobre a votação dos credores e a probabilidade de aprovação do plano de recuperação judicial. Os resultados sugerem que: (i) credores trabalhistas estão propensos a aprovar o plano de recuperação mesmo quando o plano é rejeitado pelas demais classes; (ii) planos com propostas de pagamento mais heterogêneas para as três classes de credores possuem menor chance de serem aceitos; (iii) a chance de aprovação do plano diminui nos casos em que mais credores quirografários participam da recuperação; e (iv) planos com proposta de venda de ativos possuem maior chance de serem aprovados. Finalmente, maior concentração da dívida na classe com garantia real diminui a chance de aprovação do plano, e o contrário ocorre na classe quirografária.

Computerization, occupational tasks and the labor market : evidence from a natural experiment in Brazil

A hipótese de “rotinização" ou estabelece que computadores substituem tarefas rotineiras e complementam tarefas abstratas não rotineiras. Essa dissertação de mestrado test algumas predições naturais sobre o impacto “rotinização" sobre o mercado de trabalho de uma grande economia em desenvolvimento. Uso o final da política de reserva de mercado para mini e micro-computador (Outubro de 1992) como um experimento natural que gera variação exógena nos preços de tecnologia para identificar os efeitos do uso de computadores em salários e insumos de trabalho. Conjuntamente, os resultados contribuem para a crescente literatura sobre “perspectiva das tarefas" por trazer implicações testáveis de um queda exógena de preços de computador em um contexto com uma estratégia de identificação crível.

Labor rights, formality and spillovers: evidence from Brazil

Nós analisamos o efeito da emenda constitucional 72/13 no Brasil, que igualou direitos trabalhistas de empregadas domésticas a aqueles de outros empregados. Mostramos que, após a legislação, uma considerável cobertura midiática e um interesse público intensificado aumentou o conhecimento geral de direitos trabalhistas de empregadas domésticas. Como consequência, o não-seguimento de legislações trabalhistas no setor de serviços domésticos ficou mais difícil. Ao mesmo tempo, a necessidade de regulamentar adicionalmente a emenda fez com que custos trabalhistas ficassem praticamente inalterados. Usando uma abordagem de diferença-em-diferenças que compara ocupações selecionadas ao longo do tempo, mostramos que a emenda -- e a discussão que ela causou -- levou a um aumento na formalização e nos salários de empregados domésticos. Então, usando a heterogeneidade do impacto da emenda em grupos demográficos, nossos resultados mostram que emprego doméstico foi reduzido e que mulheres pouco qualificadas saíram força de trabalho e foram para empregos de menor qualidade. Testes de placebo e análises de robustez indicam que nossos resultados não são explicados por diversas interpretações alternativas.

A bidimensional model of matching in the marriage market with women labor decision

We construct a frictionless matching model of the marriage market where women have bidimensional attributes, one continuous (income) and the other dichotomous (home ability). Equilibrium in the marriage market determines intrahousehold allocation of resources and female labor participation. Our model is able to predict partial non-assortative matching, with rich men marrying women with low income but high home ability. We then perform numerical exercises to evaluate the impacts of income taxes in individual welfare and find that there is considerable divergence in the female labor participation response to taxes between the short run and the long run.