Perspectivas de longo prazo da economia brasileira: uma analise exploratoria

As perspectivas de longo prazo da economia brasileira são examinadas tomando como referência principal a chamada Teoria do Crescimento Endógeno. Estudaremos a situação daquelas variáveis onde já há consenso de sua importância para o processo de desenvolvimento. O artigo mostra que o desempenho de nosso sistema educacional é muito ruim, mesmo para padrões latino americanos. Existem inúmeras restrições de mercado e outras barreiras ao comércio internacional e à adoção tecnológica e o grau de abertura do país é muito pequeno. Os serviços de infra-estrutura são insuficientes e caros, enquanto o sistema tributário é muito concentrado e distorcido. Enquanto persistir este quadro é pouco provável que o país cresça de forma sustentável e duradoura a taxas próximas daquelas de duas décadas passadas. Entretanto, a privatização no setor de infra-estrutura pode levar a um boom temporário devido ao aumento dos investimentos necessários para satisfazer a enorme demanda reprimida. Uma condição necessária, mas não suficiente, é a estabilidade de preços.

Sustained growth, government expenditure and inflation

We construct and simulate a theoretical model in order to explain particular historical experiences in which inflation acceleration apparently helped to spur a period of economic growth. Government financed expenditures affect positively the produtivity growth in this model so that the distortionary effect of inflation tax is compensated by the productive effect of public expenditures. We show that for some interval of money creation rates there is an equilibrium where money is valued and where steady state physica1 capital grows with inflation. It is a1so shown that zero inflation and growth maximization are never the optimal policies.

Integração, crescimento e bem-estar

Neste artigo desenvolve-se um modelo de crescimento econômico endógeno para o caso de duas economias integradas levando-se em conta a presença de custos de transporte na forma de iceberg costs. A presença de tais custos juntamente com a existência de ganhos de escala terá um efeito negativo sobre a taxa de crescimento dos países integrados e exercerá um importante efeito sobre a localização da produção de insumos intermediários. Demonstra-se, no entanto, que um processo de integração com custos de transporte ainda leva a um aumento da taxa de crescimento de estado estacionário devido ao aumento do mercado consumidor de insumos. O ganho de bem-estar decorrente da integração dependerá das dotações de cada país, na medida em que o nível de consumo per capita após a integração depende destas dotações. Adicionalmente, apresenta-se uma simulação de ganhos em termos de taxa de crescimento do PNB e de bem-estar para uma integração econômica entre Brasil e Argentina.

Sobre a inexistente relação entre política industrial e comércio exterior

Ao contrário do que se encontra na literatura internacional, em nosso país a defesa da intervenção governamental para promoção da atividade industrial está, via de regra, associada à necessidade de melhoria de nossas contas externas. Este artigo discute possíveis elos entre política industrial e comércio exterior, centrando em argumentos comumente encontrados no debate de crescimento e de apoio à indústria no Brasil. Discutiremos a racionalidade destes argumentos tanto do ponto de vista macroeconômico quanto microeconômico, e mostraremos que, enquanto no primeiro caso há graves inconsistências lógicas e teóricas, no segundo a evidência é amplamente desfavorável ou os argumentos em geral não se aplicam. Discutiremos também se experiências internacionais de crescimento rápido (e de expansão de comércio exterior) podem ser creditadas a políticas industriais e se estas podem ser facilmente reproduzidas no país. Nosso diagnóstico aqui também é pessimista

Impactos de Bem-estar da Privatização de Infra-estrutura

Rio de Janeiro

Welfare and fiscal policy with public goods and infrastructure

We construct and simulate a model to study the welfare and macroeconomic impact of government actions when its productive role is taken into account. The trade-off between public investment and public consumption is also investigated, since public consumption is introduced as a public good that directly affects individuals' well-being. Our results replicate econometric evidence showing that part of the observed slowdown of U.S. productivity growth can be explained by the reduction of investment in infrastructure which also implied a sizable welfare 1085 to the popu1ation. Depending on the methodology used we found a welfare cost ranging from 4.2% to 1.16% of GNP. The impact of fiscal policy can be qualitative and quantitative distinct depending on Whether we assume a higher or smaller output elasticity to infrastructure. If it is high enough, increases in tax rates may stimulate accumulation and production, which is the opposite prediction of standard ncocJassica1 models.

On the economic and fiscal effects of infrastructure investment in Brazil

This article studies the productive impact of infrastructure investment in Brazil. Public-capital expenditures in the country have decreased continuously over the last two decades, and this paper shows the significant impact this has had on infrastructure stocks. Cointegration analysis is used to investigate the long-run association between output and infrastructure, the results being then used to study the short-run dynamic of these variables. Whether in the short or long run, the productive impact of infrastructure was found to be relevant. Other group of simulations studies the impact of expanding capital expenditures through debt finance on debt to GDP ratio as well as on public cash áow and net worth.

The effects of longevity and distortions on education and retirement

This article studies the impact of longevity and taxation on life-cycle decisions and long-run income. Individuals allocate optimally their total lifetime between education, working and retirement. They also decide at each moment how much to save or consume out of their income, and after entering the labor market how to divide their time between labor and leisure. The model incorporates experience-earnings profiles and the return-to-education function that follows evidence from the labor literature. In this setup, increases in longevity raises the investment in education - time in school - and retirement. The model is calibrated to the U.S. and is able to reproduce observed schooling levels and the increase in retirement, as the evidence shows. Simulations show that a country equal to the U.S. but with 20% smaller longevity will be 25% poorer. In this economy, labor taxes have a strong impact on the per capita income, as it decreases labor effort, time at school and retirement age, in addition to the general equilibrium impact on physical capital. We conclude that life-cycle effects are relevant in analyzing the aggregate outcome of taxation.

Produtividade agregada brasileira (1970-2000): declínio robusto e fraca recuperação

This study explores the productivity performance of the Brazilian economy between 1970 and 1998. We assess how much of the TFP downfall can be explained by some departures from the standard procedure. We incorporate to the standard measure utilization of capacity, changes in the workweek of capital, services of capital from electricity consumption, relative prices distortions, human capital, and investment in specific technology. We conclude that the downfall in productivity is quite robust to those specifications. The only case that presents a marked difference from the standard TFP measure occurs when relative prices of capital are corrected. The implications of this finding are a topic for future research.

Infrastructure privatization in a neoclassical economy : macroeconomic impact and welfare computation

In this paper a competitive general equilibrium model is used to investigate the welfare and long run allocation impacts of privatization. There are two types of capital in this model economy, one private and the other initially public ("infrastructure"), and a positive externality due to the latter is assumed. A benevolent government can improve upon decentralized allocation internalizing the externality, but it introduces distortions in the economy through the finance of its investments. It is shown that even making the best case for public action - maximization of individuals' welfare, no• operation inefficiency and free supply to society of infrastructure services - privatization is welfare improving for a large set of economies. Hence, arguments against privatization based solely on under-investment are incorrect, as this maybe the optimal action when the financing of public investment are considered. When operation inefficiency is introduced in the public sector, gains from privatization are much higher and positive for most reasonable combinations of parameters .

A note on growth, welfare and public policy

In this note the growth anti welfare effects of fiscal anti monetary policies are investigated in three economies where public investment is part of the productive process It is shown that growth is maximized at positive levels of income tax and inflation but that there is no direct relationship between government size, productivity and growth or between inflation and growth. However, unless there are no transfers or public goods in the economy, maximization of growth does not imply welfare maximization and the optimal tax rate and government size are greater than those that maximize growth. Money is not superneutral anti the optimal rate of money creation is below the maximizing rate of growth.