Como tomadores de decisão experts percebem cenários complexos?

In this thesis, the basic research of Chase and Simon (1973) is questioned, and we seek new results by analyzing the errors of experts and beginners chess players in experiments to reproduce chess positions. Chess players with different levels of expertise participated in the study. The results were analyzed by a Brazilian grandmaster, and quantitative analysis was performed with the use of statistical methods data mining. The results challenge significantly, the current theories of expertise, memory and decision making in this area, because the present theory predicts piece on square encoding, in which players can recognize the strategic situation reproducing it faithfully, but commit several errors that the theory can¿t explain. The current theory can¿t fully explain the encoding used by players to register a board. The errors of intermediary players preserved fragments of the strategic situation, although they have committed a series of errors in the reconstruction of the positions. The encoding of chunks therefore includes more information than that predicted by current theories. Currently, research on perception, trial and decision is heavily concentrated on the idea of pattern recognition". Based on the results of this research, we explore a change of perspective. The idea of "pattern recognition" presupposes that the processing of relevant information is on "patterns" (or data) that exist independently of any interpretation. We propose that the theory suggests the vision of decision-making via the recognition of experience.

Os impactos dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos na evolução da balança comercial brasileira no período pós-real

The purpose of the present study is to discuss the eventual relationship between foreign direct investment in Brazil and trade balance, considering the period after the beginning of "Plano Real" on 1994, which presented a new currency regime and a new profile of Brazilian macroeconomy. It is important to state that there is a controversial debate around the question, since those investments are seen as positive to receiving countries by some authors and negative by other ones. Those who are favorable, argue that the recent attitude assumed by a lot of companies towards internalization is changing the modus operandi in some markets, providing a much more competitive framework. It is also remarkable - they also mention - the potential advantages brought by these new strategies. On the other hand, some authors defend that it increases the exposure of the country that receives such resources, since the subsidiaries of those companies operate under marketing strategies of profit maximization, considered the competitive environment they face. We will go over these opinions troughout the study, trying also to capture the reasons that usually motivate foreign companies to look for new markets and branches and also the effects on receiving country's Balance of Payments. Besides that point, the approach presented will try to answer if the increase of foreign capital stock in Brazil helps to explain some positive response from the country's trade balance, and more, on Balance of Payments. It is also important to mention that the considered period is extremely representative, mainly when considered the huge amounts involved and the increasing liberalization verified in brazilian's external policies since 1990. There is special concern, troughout the study, to define the pattern of such investments, and more, the impacts that those resources brought to public budget. The present study will focus on official data, published by Central Bank of Brazil, mainly those ones regarding Census of Foreign Capitals, as well as the referable to the evolution of Balance of Payments. Finally, based on statistical procedures, it will be provided multiple regressions on available data that will help the reader to capture the effects of some selected variables, which will bring a much more oriented analysis to the discussion.

Modelo de avaliação competitiva de destinos turísticos com base nas capacidades dinâmicas

Over the past few decades, the phenomenon of competitiveness, and the underlying competitive advantage thereof, has been analyzed in diverse ways, in terms of its sources (external and internal environment) and competitive management strategies, as well as different scopes (nations, economic sectors and organizations) and fields of study (economy and organizational theory). Moreover, competitiveness is a complex phenomenon and, thus, reflected in the many methods and approaches which some frameworks have developed throughout the period to try to examine it in the tourism sector as well as other industries. In this research a framework for destinations is presented on the basis of dynamic capabilities. This is an important contribution to the research, since previous studies for the tourism sector have not approached this relevant aspect of the competitive development of tourist destinations, i.e. based on the capabilities of innovation, transformation, creation and research presents a competitive evaluation of the dynamic capabilities of tourist destinations, on the basis of 79 activities, distributed in eight , this work presents an empirical application of the framework in a sample of twenty Brazilian cities, considered, by the Brazilian Tourism Minister, as indicative tourist destinations for regional development. The results obtained from this evaluation were submitted to tests of statistical reliability and have demonstrated that the destinations possess heterogeneous levels of capabilities between themselves (different levels developed in the categories between the cities) and inside each destination (developed levels of capability between the categories of the destination). In other words: heterogeneity is not only between category to category.

Fábrica de Software : um estudo de caso na Dataprev, sob a ótica da estrutura organizacional

The aim of this case study was to investigate how the evolutionary process of the development of software, especially the change of paradigm for the factory software, has affected the structure of the Board of Relacionamento, Desenvolvimento e Informações - DRD at a public company called Dataprev and also reflecting or not a return to the model taylorist-fordist of the organization on production. For this study, there were interviews and a questionnaire applied, as well as documentary and literature review on the following topics: organizational structure, factory software, taylorism and fordism. From the data collected and analyzed, in the perspective studied, it was understood that there is not a return to the model taylorist-fordist to organize the production in the process of adopting the concept of a software factory in Dataprev. In addition to that, there was a flexibility in the organizational structure of its units of development - the softwares factories Dataprev.

Mapas de Conhecimento: Em Busca de um Instrumento de Aplicação nas Organizações para Operacionalização da Gestão do Conhecimento

The present work consists on the development and exploration of a knowledge mapping model. It is aimed in presenting and testing that model in an exploratory manner for the operationalization in theoretical terms and its practical application. For this proposal, it approaches ¿knowledge management¿ by three dimensions of management: processes control, results control and leadership. Assuming the inherently personal character of knowledge and admitting the impossibility for the management to command the individuals knowledge mental processes, this study states the possibility for management to control the organizations information processes, to state and to monitor the objectives and to lead people. Therefore, the developed tool searches to graphically represent the people¿s knowledge, which becomes, consequently, information. Also it evaluates the individual¿s maturity against the identified knowledge and prescribes, according to the Situational Leadership Theory, a style of leadership in compliance with the respective maturities. The knowledge map considered here translates the graphical representation of the relevant knowledge that is said to reach the objectives of the organization. That fact allows the results management for two reasons: first, the knowledge items are directly or indirectly connected to an objective and second, the knowledge map developed indicates a importance grade of the identified knowledge for the main objective stated. The research strategy adopted to explore the model of knowledge mapping and to test its applicability, also identifying its possible contributions and limitations, is the Actionresearch. Following the research strategy¿s prescribed stages, the knowledge map, as considered by this study, was applied in a software development company to hospitals, clinics and restaurants management which is called ¿Tergus Systems and Consulting¿. More precisely, the knowledge map was applied in the customer support company¿s area for hospitals. The research¿s empirical evidences had concluded that the model is applicable with low level of complexity, but with great demand of time. The more important contributions are related to the identification of the relevant knowledge to the department objectives in set with a prescription of the knowledge capture and transference necessities, as well as, the orientation for the appropriate leadership style for each subordinate related to the knowledge item in question.

Evidências empíricas das competências profissionais críticas do CIO brasileiro

The primary objective of this work is to obtain a CIO¿s Critical Competencies model which could be applied to Brazilian CIO. This study was conducted by an explanatory research in a quantitative approach. Theoretical studies were done to understand CIO¿s environment, his identity, his career and organizational relationship. The analysis was based on six CIO¿s competencies models which describe how this professional could have a better performance. The intention of this approach was to provide a better understanding about the research problem. Then a meta-model was done as well as a survey. Once applied on Internet, the survey had 111 valid respondents, all Brazilian CIOs. To obtain the final model statistical factorial analysis was applied to the answers. Each identified factor in the model corresponds to a critical competency for Brazilian CIO. The model was submitted to hypotheses tests trying to establish what is the relation between each resultant factor and the time in the role for each respondent as well as his company size. This study has emerged a CIO critical competencies model to the Brazilian CIO, regarding his good performance.

Fatores-chave na qualidade de sistemas de home broker : uma análise teórico-empírica

This work has as main objective the development of a key factors¿ model for the quality of Home Broker systems. An explanatory research was performed, based on a quantitative approach. To achieve this goal, some theoretical models of technology acceptance (TAM, TRA, TPB and IDT), reliability and quality of service were reviewed. It was proposed an extended key factors¿ model and developed a questionnaire, which was the research instrument used in this study. The questionnaire was applied over the Internet, from which was obtained a participation of 113 valid respondents, all of them users of Home Broker system. Once performed the data collection, statistical tests were used for the Factorial Analysis in order to achieve a definitive model. The key factors found were Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, Subjective Norms, Compatibility, Reliability and Relative Advantage. Some hypotheses from the model were also tested to investigate the relationship between the importance given to the factors and the resulting degree of satisfaction about quality of service. As a result of the study, a key factors¿ model for the quality of Home Broker systems was established, and identified that the factor Compatibility" has more explanatory power than the others."

O impacto das práticas ITIL na flexibilidade organizacional - evidências empíricas em uma empresa multinacional de TI

The present work has as main objective the identification and impact analysis for the practice ITIL in the organizational flexibility of a multinational IT company, being this study of quali-quantitative and exploratory nature. To achieve this objective, some theoretical studies on bureaucracy, organization flexibility, control, IT governance and ITIL were done, as a form to better understand the research problem. For analysis effect a set of eleven ITIL process was considered in this research ¿ service desk, incident management, problem management, change management, configuration management, release management, service level management, availability management, capacity management, continuity management and finally IT financial services management ¿ grouped in its two core areas ¿ service support and service delivery. Then a scale was constructed and validated, on the basis of theoretical models developed by Volberda (1997), Tenório (2002) and Golden and Powell (1999), to measure the flexibility related to each process comprising the ITIL core. The dimensions adopted to measure flexibility were: organization design task, managerial task, IT impact on work force, HR management, efficiency impact, sensitivity, versatility and robustness. The instrument used in research was a semi-structured interview, which was divided in two parts. The data collection was performed with ten interviewed people from an IT multinational company, based on convenience, some were managers and there were users, some were ITIL certified and others not. The statistic tests of t student and Wilcoxon non-parametric were adopted. The result of the research indicated that the ITIL service support area, for possessing greater operational focus, presents flexibility trend. The opposite was found for the service delivery area, which has greater tactical focus. The results also suggest that the change management discipline was the one that contributed for the most flexibility inside the company, followed by incident management discipline and the service desk function.

Decisão monocrática e agravo interno: celeridade ou entrave processual?

A presente pesquisa foi projetada para aferir o impacto das Leis nº. 9.139/95 e nº. 9.765/98, que culminaram na ampliação dos poderes decisórios do relator (artigo 557, par. 1º, CPC), com a finalidade de minorar a carga de trabalho dos órgãos colegiados e reduzir o tempo de julgamento dos recursos. Para avaliar se os propósitos do legislador foram atingidos, a pesquisa utiliza dados estatísticos coletados no Tribunal de Justiça do Rio de Janeiro. Posteriormente, tenciona-se realizar a investigação em outros Estados. A abordagem empírica deste trabalho busca alinhá-lo às modernas tendên- cias da processualística, que privilegiam a pesquisa experimental em detrimento de análises tipicamente formalistas, dogmáticas e indiferentes aos reais problemas dos Tribunais.

Evidências empíricas das competências profissionais críticas do cio brasileiro

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal a obtenção de um modelo de Competências Críticas que possa ser aplicado ao CIO brasileiro. Para isso foi realizada uma pesquisa de natureza explanatória por meio de abordagem quantitativa. Para atingir este objetivo, foram feitos estudos teóricos relacionados ao ambiente do CIO, sua identidade, seu desenvolvimento na carreira, bem como seu relacionamento com sua organização e com fornecedores. Para efeito de análise foi considerado nesta pesquisa um conjunto de seis modelos encontrados na literatura mundial que descrevem as competências necessárias ao desempenho profissional do CIO, buscando assim, obter-se um melhor entendimento do problema de pesquisa. A partir daí, foi proposto um metamodelo de competências críticas e elaborado um questionário, sendo este o instrumento de pesquisa que foi utilizado neste estudo. Aplicado o questionário a partir da Internet, obteve-se uma participação de 111 respondentes válidos, sendo todos CIOs brasileiros. Uma vez efetuada a coleta de dados, foram adotados testes estatísticos relativos à Análise Fatorial, com o propósito de obter-se um modelo definitivo. Neste modelo encontrado, cada fator identificado representa uma competência crítica para o CIO brasileiro. Foram também testadas hipóteses a partir do modelo identificado, apurando qual a relação existente entre a importância atribuída aos fatores resultantes e o tempo de atuação de cada respondente como CIO, bem como o porte das empresas em que atuou. Como resultado do estudo, estabeleceu-se um modelo de competências críticas aplicável ao CIO brasileiro, associado ao seu bom desempenho nas suas atribuições.

Estatística básica aplicada à administração judiciária

A partir da Constituição de 1988, houve crescimento expressivo na busca pela prestação jurisdicional, mas sem acréscimo proporcional na estrutura judiciária e sem a adequada alteração do sistema processual. O descompasso provocou o congestionamento da maioria dos órgãos judiciais. Atualmente, a morosidade é o problema mais grave enfrentado pelo Poder Judiciário brasileiro. Dentre as suas várias causas, somente as que têm relação com o modo de prestação do serviço podem ser enfrentadas internamente. Nesse contexto, a modernização da administração judiciária, baseada em informação estatística de qualidade, é a solução que se mostra viável. No Rio Grande do Sul, o aprimoramento do sistema de coleta de dados é condição indispensável para que o Tribunal de Justiça disponha de estatísticas adequadas de medição da produtividade individual e de indicadores de desempenho da instituição. A capacitação dos magistrados em técnicas estatísticas básicas também se faz necessária, a fim de que as informações fornecidas pelo sistema possam ser interpretadas corretamente, em benefício da administração do Poder Judiciário.

Um estudo empírico sobre os benefícios de SOA nas empresas: a visão dos profissionais de TI

Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal a avaliação da percepção dos profissionais de tecnologia de informação quanto aos benefícios atribuídos a arquitetura orientada a serviço (SOA). Em busca deste objetivo, e visando uma melhor compreensão do tema, estudos teóricos foram desenvolvidos abordando os seguintes assuntos: Arquitetura de Software, Gerenciamento de Processos de Negócio (BPM) e Arquiteturas Orientadas a Serviços (SOA). A partir do referencial teórico e de um grupo de foco – composto por seis profissionais experientes em SOA – oito hipóteses foram levantadas, representando os principais benefícios atribuídos a estas arquiteturas. Um questionário foi então preparado e, a partir dele, 66 respostas válidas foram obtidas. Os resultados foram analisados utilizando-se de estatísticas descritivas e dos testes estatísticos não-paramétricos de Wilcoxon e qui-quadrado, buscando a validação, ou rejeição, das hipóteses apresentadas. Como resultado, em suma, percebe-se que, apesar da recente adoção das SOAs pelas empresas brasileiras, parece haver uma consonância entre seus profissionais de TI quanto aos benefícios desta nova abordagem para projetos de tecnologia da informação. Evidencia-se também a grande importância de disciplinas como governança e planejamento para a garantia do sucesso na implantação de projetos baseados nestas arquiteturas.

Os efeitos da governança corporativa sobre a informação assimétrica

Em dezembro de 2000, a Bovespa criou uma listagem diferenciando as empresas que voluntariamente aceitassem práticas de governança corporativas adicionais àquelas exigidas pela CVM. A finalidade da inovação era estreitar a relação entre as empresas e seus investidores, diminuindo a assimetria informacional, dando maior segurança ao investidor e, dessa forma, fomentando os recursos aplicados no mercado de capital. Este trabalho procura avaliar a iniciativa feita pela Bovespa, para tanto foram aplicados vários testes estatísticos e econométricos, que diferenciaram as empresas enquanto a política de governança adotada. O banco de dados possui um total de 326 empresas que foram analisadas no período de 1996 à 2008. Os resultados apontam a existência de uma relação clara entre a governança corporativa e a assimetria de informação. Companhias que adotam políticas de governança mais restritivas (Novo Mercado, Nível 2 e Nível 1) possuem menos assimetrias de informação. Os resultados apontam para a constituição de um mercado com características distintas do tradicional da Bovespa. As companhias que sofrem maiores restrições configuram um ambiente institucional mais seguro, donde se conclui que a iniciativa da Bovespa em diferenciar o mercado conforme o grau de governança trouxe contribuições positivas para a melhora do acesso à informação, que se traduz em um mercado mais seguro para o acionista.

Verificação da existência de assimetria de informações no processo de emissão de ações no mercado brasileiro: uma forma de medir a importância da estrutura de ativos da empresa

O presente estudo testa a existência da assimetria de informações no mercado de capitais no Brasil, por meio da realização de testes sobre o comportamento do preço das ações de empresas brasileiras no período de 1994 a 2001. A análise será conduzida levando-se em consideração diversas hipóteses, em particular o modelo de Equilíbrio da Decisão de Emissão-Investimento desenvolvido por Myers e Majluf. Este estudo buscará discutir novas formas de verificar a existência da Assimetria de Informação pela utilização de modelos estatísticos, ampliando desta forma o conceito de medida correta sugerido por Nathalie Dierkens.

Sistemas de previsão de preços de commodities no mercado futuro

Este trabalho compara procedimentos de previsão de preços de commodities, utilizados de maneira impírica pelos analistas de mercado, com os procedimentos fornecidos pela Análise de Séries Temporais. Aplicamos os métodos de previsão utilizando as Médias Móveis, os métodos baseados em Alisamentos exponenciais e principalmente os modelos ARIMA de Box-Jenkins. Estes últimos são, em geral, generalizações dos primeiros, com a vantagem de utilizar os instrumentos estatísticos de medidas das incertezas, como o desvio-padrão e os intervalos de confiança para as previsões