On the optimality of the Friedman Rule with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation

We study the optimal “inflation tax” in an environment with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxes. We first derive the general conditions needed for the optimality of the Friedman rule in this setup. These general conditions are distinct in nature and more easily interpretable than those obtained in the literature with a representative agent and linear taxation. We then study two standard monetary specifications and derive their implications for the optimality of the Friedman rule. For the shopping-time model the Friedman rule is optimal with essentially no restrictions on preferences or transaction technologies. For the cash-credit model the Friedman rule is optimal if preferences are separable between the consumption goods and leisure, or if leisure shifts consumption towards the credit good. We also study a generalized model which nests both models as special cases.

The optimality of the Friedman rule when some distorting taxes are exogenous

This paper investigates the optimality of the Friedman rule in a two-sector small open economy. That policy prescription is found to be a necessary condition for Pareto efficiency. If a planner can select all conceivable distorting taxes, then, for some initial values of public debt, money balances and foreign assets, it is possible to decentralize a Pareto efficient allocation. If the planner can select only some of these tax rates, then second-best policies may also satisfy the Friedman rule. However, this last result depends on the set of tax instruments the planner can choose from.

Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil

This article studies the interplay between fiscal rules, public investment and growth in Brazil. It is investigated if it would make sense to raise public investment and, if so, under which fiscal rule it is best to do it — whether through tax financing, debt financing, or a reduction of public consumption. We construct and simulate a competitive general equilibrium model, calibrated to Brazilian economy, in which public capital is a component of the production function and public consumption directly affects individuals’ well-being. After assessing the impacts of alternative fiscal rules, the paper concludes that the most desirable financing scheme is the reduction of public consumption, which dominates the others in terms of output and welfare gains. The model replicates the observed growth slowdown of the Brazilian economy when we increase taxes and reduce public capital formation to the levels observed after 1980 and shows that the growth impact of the expansion of tax collection in Brazil was much larger than that of public investment compression.

A consumption CAPM with a reference level

We study an intertemporal asset pricing model in which a representative consumer maximizes expected utility derived from both the ratio of his consumption to some reference level and this level itself. If the reference consumption level is assumed to be determined by past consumption levels, the model generalizes the usual habit formation specifications. When the reference level growth rate is made dependent on the market portfolio return and on past consumption growth, the model mixes a consumption CAPM with habit formation together with the CAPM. It therefore provides, in an expected utility framework, a generalization of the non-expected recursive utility model of Epstein and Zin (1989). When we estimate this specification with aggregate per capita consumption, we obtain economically plausible values of the preference parameters, in contrast with the habit formation or the Epstein-Zin cases taken separately. All tests performed with various preference specifications confirm that the reference level enters significantly in the pricing kernel.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries

Using the theoretical framework of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), we perform an empirical investigation on how widespread is the predictability of cay {a modi ed consumption-wealth ratio { once we consider a set of important countries from a global perspective. We chose to work with the set of G7 countries, which represent more than 64% of net global wealth and 46% of global GDP at market exchange rates. We evaluate the forecasting performance of cay using a panel-data approach, since applying cointegration and other time-series techniques is now standard practice in the panel-data literature. Hence, we generalize Lettau and Ludvigson's tests for a panel of important countries. We employ macroeconomic and nancial quarterly data for the group of G7 countries, forming an unbalanced panel. For most countries, data is available from the early 1990s until 2014Q1, but for the U.S. economy it is available from 1981Q1 through 2014Q1. Results of an exhaustive empirical investigation are overwhelmingly in favor of the predictive power of cay in forecasting future stock returns and excess returns.

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Illegitimate identity in the middle of an ideological crisis and tensions in the consumption network: a study on why plus-size fashion brands are illegitimate fashion elements

O presente trabalho explora as causas pelas quais o campo da moda plus size carece de legitimidade com as consumidoras plus size. Eu explorei o assunto em três artigos. No primeiro, eu estudo o processo de legitimação de um novo mercado emergente, o mercado da moda plus size brasileira e os desafios para sua a institucionalização. Eu conduzi dezessete entrevistas com consumidoras plus size, uma netnografia em quatro blogs de moda plus size brasileiros e analisei de maneira semiótica um site que vende roupas de moda plus size. Meus resultados indicam que, apesar de ter atores legítimos que promovem essas marcas de moda plus size, o campo da moda plus size ainda é percebido como uma versão vergonhosa do campo da moda. Defendo aqui que o fato de uma das lógicas de campo da moda plus size ser estigma, acaba afetando os projetos identitários das consumidoras de maneira depreciativa, de forma elas não se envolvem em práticas de capital cultural que ocorrem dentro do campo da moda plus size. No segundo artigo, eu conduzi uma introspecção genealógica em que eu pesquisei questões de identidade. Como uma mulher (que se assume ) plus size, eu imaginei que seria relevante para olhar para dentro de mim mesma, a fim de explorar a forma como a minha identidade liga-se com a rede semiótica-material que me rodeia em termos de moda, alimentos e outros elementos. Meus dados vieram tanto de técnicas de introspecção simultâneas, quanto retrospectivas. Em termos teóricos, eu usei a ideia de ―assemblages‖ e eu foquei minha análise tanto nos aspectos materiais da minha rede de consumo, quanto na estabilidade da rede. As consequências da minha assemblage estão ligadas a uma gestão de qualidade total da minha identidade, tanto online como off-line, refletidas em práticas de consumo que se conectam à ideia de uma lógica de consumo bulímica em que o consumo de alimentos e gestão corpo estão interligadas. Por fim, no meu terceiro artigo, eu explorei o conceito de identidade a partir do consumo da moda feminina plus size. Foram feitas catorze entrevistas fenomenológicas, cujos dados foram analisados a partir de uma perspectiva hermenêutica. Três categorias temáticas emergiram da análise de dados: a construção da identidade por meio da moda, elementos de identidade plus size e estratégias criativas para lidar com a falta de produtos para mulheres plus size no varejo. Entre os principais resultados, destacam-se a forma como o termo plus size atua como estigma, influenciando projetos de identidade das consumidoras, o papel do varejo no processo de estigmatização e a saga épica de compras, que envolve um "mercado negro", com a participação de vendedores. Eu concluo discutindo o papel da identidade na instabilidade do campo da moda plus size.