State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time variation in the bias by making the loss function depend on the state of the economy. The asymmetry parameter in the loss function is specified to depend on set state variables which may cause forecaster to intentionally bias their forecasts. We consider both the Lin–Ex and asymmetric power loss functions. For the commonly used Lin–Ex and Lin–Lin loss functions, we show the model can be easily estimated by least squares. We apply our methodology to the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that forecast uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the asymmetry parameter in the loss function dependent upon whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. When the economy is in expansion, forecaster uncertainty is related to an overprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. In contrast, when the economy is in contraction, forecaster uncertainty is related to an underprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. Our results are robust to the particular loss function that is employed in the analysis.

The chaotic state of the law of rape in Victoria: a mandate for reform

This article is intended as a final commentary and sequel to two earlier articles in this journal that have examined the arcane and circular wording of s. 37AA of the Crimes Act 1958 (Vic) and its patent incompatibility with ss 36 and 38 of that Act that define the elements of rape. In particular, this article will revisit many of the essential points raised in the first two articles in order to afford readers with an appropriate backdrop against which the Victorian Court of Appeal’s decision in GC v The Queen will be examined. The article concludes with a strenuous recommendation that s. 37AA be repealed or substantially amended in order to comport with ss 36 and 38 as well as the Court of Appeal’s decision in NT v The Queen that significantly reshaped the Morgan principle.

Ambiguities and inconsistencies in relation to the obligations of proxies under corporations law: a model for reform

This article reconsiders the important question which came to light as a result of the controversial 2002 Coles Myer annual general meeting: do directors that are appointed as proxy have an obligation to vote as directed (and indeed should they)? A recent decision of the New South Wales Supreme Court, which was subsequently approved on appeal, stands for the proposition that proxy holders are agents of the shareholders that appointed them. However, currently the Corporations Act only requires a Chairman appointed as proxy to vote as directed — not an ordinary director. This article briefly explains the present state of the law in Australia on this issue, and then explores some interesting recent judicial remarks which may suggest that ordinary directors appointed as proxy must vote as directed in order to satisfy their director’s duties (both common law and statutory) to the company. We finally outline a proposed statutory reform initiative which seeks to remove the present uncertainty in the law by introducing a blanket requirement that all proxy holders must vote as directed.

State and input simultaneous estimation for a class of nonlinear systems

This paper addresses the problem of estimating simultaneously the state and input of a class of nonlinear systems. Here, the systems nonlinear part comprises a Lipschitz nonlinear function with respect to the state and input, and a state-dependent unknown function including additive disturbance as well as uncertain/nonlinear/time-varying terms. Upon satisfying some conditions, the observer design problem can be solved via a Riccati inequality or a LMI-based technique with asymptotic estimation guaranteed. A numerical example is included for illustration.

The constitutional rights of children and the Prevention of Organised Crime Act 121 of 1998

The Prevention of Organised Crime Act 121 of 1998 [POCA] embodies a serious attempt by the South African government to effectively police and curb organised crime, money laundering and criminal gang activities in South Africa. The Act provides inter alia for a range of crippling fines and for orders such as confiscation and forfeiture. Asset forfeiture and confiscation orders can affect the rights of third parties directly and indirectly in a number of ways. Young persons and children can beaffected indirectly because asset forfeiture and confiscation orders may violate the right to parental care of the dependent young persons and children of the person who is subject to the order. This brief article will investigate aspects of the protection afforded to the rights of children when such orders are made in terms of the provisions of the Prevention of Organised Crime Act.

Recognising and monitoring high-level behaviours in complex spatial environments

The recognition of activities from sensory data is important in advanced surveillance systems to enable prediction of high-level goals and intentions of the target under surveillance. The problem is complicated by sensory noise and complex activity spanning large spatial and temporal extents. This paper presents a system for recognising high-level human activities from multi-camera video data in complex spatial environments. The Abstract Hidden Markov mEmory Model (AHMEM) is used to deal with noise and scalability The AHMEM is an extension of the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM) that allows us to represent a richer class of both state-dependent and context-free behaviours. The model also supports integration with low-level sensory models and efficient probabilistic inference. We present experimental results showing the ability of the system to perform real-time monitoring and recognition of complex behaviours of people from observing their trajectories within a real, complex indoor environment.

Shear- free perfect fluids with solenoidal magnetic curvature and a γ-law equation of state

We show that shear-free perfect fluids obeying an equation of state p = (γ − 1)μ are non-rotating or non-expanding under the assumption that the spatial divergence of the magnetic part of the Weyl tensor is zero.

Policing, rule of law, state capacity and sustainable peace in Timor-Leste

This paper sets out to demonstrate the link between development, state capacity and peace, employing Timor-Leste as the case study. It employs the association between state capacity and development to illustrate where if state capacity is lacking or functions improperly there is likely to be a low level of state legitimacy. This in turn manifests as lack of respect for or failure of rule of law, developing as generalised lawlessness and anti-state activity and eventually manifesting as intra-state or civil conflict. In particular, policing is seen as a critical component in state legitimacy, being the 'front line' of the judicial system from which legitimacy ultimately derives. This issue is particularly critical in states emerging from traditional legal and judicial structures, but which have not yet articulated into 'rational-legal' structures. Ipso facto, key state institutions, such as the judicial system and police are required to function well, while these are alone not enough to guarantee peace, they are significant contributors to and guarantors of peace.

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.

Shear-free perfect fluids with a γ-law equation of state

 We investigate all shear-free perfect fluid solutions of the Einstein field equations where the pressure and energy density satisfy a (Formula presented.)-law equation of state with (Formula presented.). We prove that such a fluid is either non rotating or non expanding. As a consequence, it follows by combining our result with those of Collins and Wainwright that any such shear-free perfect fluid which models either an expand universe or a collapsing star must in fact be a Friedmann–Robertson–Walker spacetime.