Long-term trends in the Australaian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.

Long-term effects of calcium-vitamin-D3-fortified milk on bone geometry and strength in older men

The long-term effects of calcium and vitamin D supplementation on bone material and structural properties in older men are not known. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of high calcium (1000 mg/day)- and vitamin-D3 (800 IU/day)-fortified milk on cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone geometry at the axial and appendicular skeleton in men aged over 50 years. One hundred and eleven men who were part of a larger 2-year randomized controlled trial had QCT scans of the mid-femur and lumbar spine (L1–L3) to assess vBMD, bone geometry and indices of bone strength [polar moment of inertia (Ipolar)]. After 2 years, there were no significant differences between the milk supplementation and control group for the change in any mid-femur or L1–L3 bone parameters for all men aged over 50 years. However, the mid-femur skeletal responses to the fortified milk varied according to age, with a split of ≤62 versus >62 years being the most significant for discriminating the changes between the two groups. Subsequent analysis revealed that, in the older men (>62 years), the expansion in mid-femur medullary area was 2.8% (P < 0.01) less in the milk supplementation compared to control group, which helped to preserve cortical area in the milk supplementation group (between group difference 1.1%, P < 0.01). Similarly, for mid-femur cortical vBMD and Ipolar, the net loss was 2.3 and 2.8% less in the milk supplementation compared to control group (P < 0.01 and <0.001, respectively). In conclusion, calcium–vitamin-D3-fortified milk may represent an effective strategy to maintain bone strength by preventing endocortical bone loss and slowing the loss in cortical vBMD in elderly men.

Long-term flowering patterns of melliferous Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) species

The flowering patterns of 28 Victorian melliferous (honey-producing) eucalypts were investigated by using long-term observations of highly experienced, commercial apiarists. Frequency, timing, duration and intensity of flowering were determined, as were spatial differences within and among species. Data were obtained by face-to-face interviews with 25 Victorian apiarists, each of whom had operated a minimum of 350 hives for a minimum of 30 years. Flowering frequency ranged from 1 to 7 years, and most species flowered once every 2–4 years. Long-term flowering frequency, timing and duration were reported as constant, although short-term perturbations could occur. Most melliferous species flowered during spring and summer for a period of 3 months or more. Only few species had shorter flowering periods. Information provided by apiarists compared well with available published information (e.g. flowering period reported in field guides) and revealed a reliable, largely untapped source of long-term data, the use of which could benefit many ecological research endeavours.

Long-term 5-year effects of a reduced-fat diet intervention in individuals with glucose intolerance

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether reducing dietary fat would reduce body weight and improve long-term glycemia in people with glucose intolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A 5-year Follow-up of a 1-year randomized controlled trial of a reduced-fat ad libitum diet versus a usual diet. Participants with glucose intolerance (2-h blood glucose 7.0-11.0 mmol/l) were recruited from a Workforce Diabetes Survey. The group that was randomized to a reduced-fat diet participated in monthly small-group education sessions on reduced-fat eating for 1 year. Body weight and glucose tolerance were measured in 136 participants at baseline 6 months, and 1 year (end of intervention), with follow-up at 2 years (n = l04), 3 years (n = 99), and 5 years (n = 103). RESULTS: Compared with the control group, weight decreased in the reduced-fat-diet group (P < 0.0001); the greatest difference was noted at 1 year (-3.3 kg), diminished at subsequent follow-up (-3.2 kg at 2 years and -1.6 kg at 3 years), and was no longer present by 5 years (1.1 kg). Glucose tolerance also improved in patients on the reduced-fat diet; a lower proportion had type 2 diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance at 1 year (47 vs. 67%, P < 0.05), but in subsequent years, there were no differences between groups. However, the more compliant 50% of the intervention group maintained lower fasting and 2-h glucose at 5 years (P = 0.041 and P = 0.026 respectively) compared with control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The natural history for people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is weight gain and deterioration in glucose tolerance. This process may be ameliorated through adherence to a reduced fat intake

A structural events approach to examining long-term change in the Australian trade union movement, 1969-1996

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity, in constructing explanations of change. This paper argues that our understanding of structural change in the Australian trade union movement would be better served by a structural events approach that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, it outlines how these structural events can be identified and measured, and presents the preliminary findings from the methods application.

The structural events approach- A "better" way to understand long-term change in trade union structure: the Australian story (1986-96)

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity in constructing explanations of change. Using the Australian trade union movement as an example, this article argues that our understanding of the long-term change in the external structure of trade unions would be better served by a structural events approach (Waddington, 1995) that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, this article presents new data on structural change in the Australian trade union movement between 1986 and 1996, and explains the additional contribution made by union dissolutions and union formations to the reductionist effects of the merger wave that dominated these years.

Pregnancy and lactation have no long-term deleterious effect on measures of bone mineral in healthy women: a twin study

BACKGROUND: The long-term effects of pregnancy and lactation on measures of bone mineral in women remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE: We studied whether pregnancy or lactation has deleterious long-term effects on bone mineral in healthy women.

DESIGN: We measured bone mineral density (BMD; g/cm(2)) in women aged > or = 18 y. Analyses were performed on 3 data sets: study 1, 83 female twin pairs (21 monozygous and 62 dizygous) aged (x +/- SD) 42.2 +/- 15.5 y who were discordant for ever having been pregnant beyond 20 wk; study 2, 498 twin pairs aged 42.3 +/- 15.0 y; and study 3, 1354 individual twins, their siblings, and family members.

RESULTS: In study 1, there were no significant within-pair differences in unadjusted BMD or BMD adjusted for age, height, and fat mass at the lumbar spine or total-hip or in total-body bone mineral content (BMC; kg) (paired t tests). In study 2, there was no significant within-pair difference in measures of bone mineral or body composition related to the within-pair difference in number of pregnancies. In study 3, subjects with 1 or 2 (n = 455) and > or = 3 pregnancies (n = 473) had higher adjusted lumbar spine BMD (2.9% and 3.8%, respectively; P = 0.001) and total-body BMC (2.2% and 3.1%; P < 0.001) than did nulliparous women (n = 426). Parous women who breast-fed had higher adjusted total-body BMC (2.6%; P = 0.005), total-hip BMD (3.2%; P = 0.04), and lower fat mass (10.9%; P = 0.01) than did parous non-breast-feeders.

CONCLUSION: We found no long-term detrimental effect of pregnancy or breast-feeding on bone mineral measures.

Low carbohydrate diets: what are the potential short and long term health implications?

Low-carbohydrate diets for weight loss are receiving a lot of attention of late. Reasons for this interest include a plethora of low-carbohydrate diet books, the over-sensationalism of these diets in the media and by celebrities, and the promotion of these diets in fitness centres and health clubs. The re-emergence of low-carbohydrate diets into the spotlight has lead many people in the general public to question whether carbohydrates are inherently 'bad' and should be limited in the diet. Although low-carbohydrate diets were popular in the 1970s they have resurged again yet little scientific fact into the true nature of how these diets work or, more importantly, any potential for serious long-term health risks in adopting this dieting practice appear to have reached the mainstream literature. Evidence abounds that low-carbohydrate diets present no significant advantage over more traditional energy-restricted, nutritionally balanced diets both in terms of weight loss and weight maintenance. Studies examining the efficacy of using low-carbohydrate diets for long-term weight loss are few in number, however few positive benefits exist to promote the adoption of carbohydrate restriction as a realistic, and more importantly, safe means of dieting. While short-term carbohydrate restriction over a period of a week can result in a significant loss of weight (albeit mostly from water and glycogen stores), of serious concern is what potential exists for the following of this type of eating plan for longer periods of months to years. Complications such as heart arrhythmias, cardiac contractile function impairment, sudden death, osteoporosis, kidney damage, increased cancer risk, impairment of physical activity and lipid abnormalities can all be linked to long-term restriction of carbohydrates in the diet. The need to further explore and communicate the untoward side-effects of low-carbohydrate diets should be an important public health message from nutrition professionals.

Long-term effects of a reduced fat diet intervention on cardiovascular disease risk factors in individuals with glucose intolerance

The long-term effects on cardiovascular disease risk factors of a reduced fat (RF), ad libitum diet were compared with usual diet (control, CD) in glucose intolerance individuals.

Participants were 136 adults aged ≥40 years with ‘glucose intolerance’ (2 h blood glucose 7–11.0 mmol/l) detected at a Diabetes Survey who completed at 1 year intervention study of reduced fat, ad libitum diet versus usual diet. They were re-assessed at 2, 3 and 5 years. Main outcome measures were blood pressure, serum concentrations of total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, total cholesterol:HDL ratio, triglycerides and body weight.

The reduced fat diet lowered total cholesterol (P<0.01), LDL cholesterol (P≤0.05), total cholesterol:HDL ratio (P≤0.05), body weight (P<0.01) and systolic blood pressure (P≤0.05) initially and diastolic blood pressure (P<0.01) long-term. No significant changes occurred in HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. In the more compliant 50% of the intervention group, systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels and body weight were lower at 1, 2 and 3 years (P<0.05).

It was concluded that a reduced fat ad libitum diet has short-term benefits for cholesterol, body weight and systolic blood pressure and long-term benefits for diastolic blood pressure without significantly effecting HDL cholesterol and triglycerides despite participants regaining their lost weight.

Omega 6 to omega 3 fatty acid imbalance early in life leads to persistant reductions in DHA levels in glycerophospholipids in rat hypothalamus even after long-term omega 3 fatty acid repletion

Failure to provide omega 3 fatty acids in the perinatal period results in alterations in nerve growth factor levels, dopamine production and  permanent elevations in blood pressure. The present study investigated whether changes in brain (i.e., hypothalamus) glycerophospholipid fatty acid profiles induced by a diet rich in omega 6 fatty acids and very low in alpha-linolenic acid (ALA) during pregnancy and the perinatal period could be reversed by subsequent feeding of a diet containing ALA. Female rats (6 per group) were mated and fed either a low ALA diet or a control diet containing ALA throughout pregnancy and until weaning of the pups at 3 weeks. At weaning, the pups (20 per group) remained on the diet of their mothers until 9 weeks, when half the pups were switched onto the other diet, thus generating four groups of animals. At 33 weeks, pups were killed, the hypothalamus dissected from the male rats and analysed for glycerophospholipid fatty acids. In the animals fed the diet with very little ALA and then re-fed the control diet containing high levels of ALA for 24 weeks, the DHA levels were still significantly less than the control values in PE, PS and PI fractions, by 9%, 18% and 34%, respectively. In this group, but not in the other dietary groups, ALA was detected in all glycerophospholipid classes at 0.2–1.7% of the total fatty acids. The results suggest that omega 6–3 PUFA imbalance early in life leads to irreversible changes in hypothalamic composition. The increased ALA and reduced DHA proportions in the animals re-fed ALA in later life are consistent with a dysfunction or down-regulation of the conversion of ALA to 18:4n-3 by the delta-6 desaturase.

Long-term risk factor control after a cardiac rehabilitation programme

This study examined the hypothesis that Phase II cardiac rehabilitation participants (CRP) had better long-term risk factor control, self-rated perception of health and return to work rates than non-participants (NP) between 18 and 36 months post myocardial infarction (MI). It was a comparative study in a 550 bed hospital.

Approximately half of both groups did not achieve a total cholesterol (TC) of 5.5mmol/L or less. Compared with NP, CRP were significantly more likely to have a TC<=6.5mmol/L (7% vs. 28%) (p=0.006). NP with TC>6.5mmol/L were significantly less likely to be on treatment (p=0.002). CRP were more likely to regularly exercise than NP (79% vs. 61%) (p=0.038). The success rate for blood pressure targets, return to work rates and self-rated perception of health were similar in both groups.

In conclusion, CRP had better long-term control of some risk factors than NP. The study provides comparative longer term patient outcomes after an Australian cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programme and forms the basis for further outcome measurement.

Making long-term economic growth more sustainable: evaluating the costs and benefits

Currently, traditional development issues such as economic stagnation, poverty, hunger, and illness as well as newer challenges like environmental degradation and globalisation demand attention. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. Optimal economic growth has also been a crucial goal of both development theorists and practitioners. This paper examines the conditions under which optimal growth might be sustainable, by assessing the costs and benefits of growth. Key environmental and social aspects are considered. The Ecol-Opt-Growth-1 model analyses economic–ecological interactions, including resource depletion, pollution, irreversibility, other environmental effects, and uncertainty. It addresses some important issues, including savings, investment, technical progress, substitutability of productive factors, intergenerational efficiency, equity, and policies to make economic growth more sustainable—a basic element of the sustainomics framework. The empirical results support growing concerns that costs of growth may outweigh its benefits, resulting in unsustainability. Basically, in a wide range of circumstances, long term economic growth is unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage. Nevertheless, the model has many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable, as advocated by sustainomics. One example suggests that government supported abatement programs are needed to move towards sustainable development, since the model runs without abatement were infeasible. The optimal rate of abatement increases over time. Abatement of pollution is necessary to improve ecosystem viability and increase sustainability. Further research is necessary to seek conditions under which alternative economic growth paths are likely to become sustainable.