Estimating the effects of energy imbalance on changes in body weight in children

BACKGROUND: Estimating changes in weight from changes in energy balance is important for predicting the effect of obesity prevention interventions. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to develop and validate an equation for predicting the mean weight of a population of children in response to a change in total energy intake (TEI) or total energy expenditure (TEE). DESIGN: In 963 children with a mean (+/-SD) age of 8.1 +/- 2.8 y (range: 4-18 y) and weight of 31.5 +/- 17.6 kg, TEE was measured by using doubly labeled water. Log weight (dependent variable) and log TEE (independent variable) were analyzed in a linear regression model with height, age, and sex as covariates. It was assumed that points of dynamic balance, called "settling points," occur for populations wherein energy is in balance (TEE = TEI), weight is stable (ignoring growth), and energy flux (EnFlux) equals TEE. RESULTS: TEE (or EnFlux) explained 74% of the variance in weight. The unstandardized regression coefficient was 0.45 (95% CI: 0.38, 0.51; R(2) = 0.86) after including covariates. Conversion into proportional changes (time(1) to time(2)) gave the equation (weight(2)/weight(1)) = (EnFlux(2)/EnFlux(1))(0.45). In 3 longitudinal studies (n = 212; mean follow-up of 3.4 y), the equation predicted the mean follow-up measured weight to within 0.5%. CONCLUSIONS: The relation of EnFlux with weight was positive, which implied that a high TEI (rather than low physical activity and low TEE) was the main determinant of high body weight. Two populations of children with a 10% difference in mean EnFlux would have a 4.5% difference in mean weight.

Differential effects of arginine, glutamate and phosphoarginine on Ca2+-activation properties of muscle fibres from crayfish and rat

The effects of two amino acids, arginine which has a positively charged side-chain and glutamate which has a negatively charged side-chain on the Ca²⁺-activation properties of the contractile apparatus were examined in four structurally and functionally different types of skeletal muscle; long- and short-sarcomere fibres from the claw muscle of the yabby (a freshwater decapod crustacean), and fast- and slow-twitch fibres from limb muscles of the rat. Single skinned fibres were activated in carefully balanced solutions of different pCa (-log₁₀[Ca²⁺]) that either contained the test solute (“test”) or not (“control”). The effect of phosphoarginine, a phosphagen that bears a nett negative charge, was also compared to the effects of arginine. Results show that (i) arginine (33-36 mmol l^-1) significantly shifted the force–pCa curve by 0.08–0.13 pCa units in the direction of increased sensitivity to Ca²⁺-activated contraction in all fibre types; (ii) phosphoarginine (9–10 mmol l^-1) induced a significant shift of the force–pCa curve by 0.18–0.24 pCa units in the direction of increased sensitivity to Ca²⁺ in mammalian fast- and slow-twitch fibres, but had no significant effects on the force–pCa relation in either long- or short-sarcomere crustacean fibres; (iii) glutamate (36–40 mmol l^-1), like arginine affected the force–pCa relation of all fibre types investigated, but in the opposite direction, causing a significant decrease in the sensitivity to Ca²⁺-activated contraction by 0.08–0.19 pCa units; (iv) arginine, phosphoarginine and glutamate had little or no effect on the maximum Ca²⁺-activated force of crustacean and mammalian fibres. The results suggest that the opposing effects of glutamate and arginine are not related to simply their charge structure, but must involve complex interactions between these molecules, Ca²⁺ and the regulatory and other myofibrillar proteins.

Effects of laterally wedged insoles on symptoms and disease progression in medial knee osteoarthritis: a protocol for a randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled trial

Background: Whilst laterally wedged insoles, worn inside the shoes, are advocated as a simple, inexpensive, non-toxic self-administered intervention for knee osteoarthritis (OA), there is currently limited evidence to support their use. The aim of this randomised, double-blind controlled trial is to determine whether laterally wedges insoles lead to greater improvements in knee pain, physical function and health-related quality of life, and slower structural disease progression as well as being more cost-effective, than control flat insoles in people with medial knee OA.

Methods/Design: Two hundred participants with painful radiographic medial knee OA and varus malalignment will be recruited from the community and randomly allocated to lateral wedge or control insole groups using concealed allocation. Participants will be blinded as to which insole is considered therapeutic. Blinded follow up assessment will be conducted at 12 months after randomisation. The outcome measures are valid and reliable measures recommended for OA clinical trials. Questionnaires will assess changes in pain, physical function and health-related quality-of-life. Magnetic resonance imaging will measure changes in tibial cartilage volume. To evaluate cost-effectiveness, participants will record the use of all health-related treatments in a log-book returned to the assessor on a monthly basis. To test the effect of the intervention using an intention-to-treat analysis, linear regression modelling will be applied adjusting for baseline outcome values and other demographic characteristics.

Discussion: Results from this trial will contribute to the evidence regarding the effectiveness of laterally wedged insoles for the management of medial knee OA.

Trial registration: ACTR12605000503628; NCT00415259.

Relationship of weaning weight to the mature liveweight of cashmere does on Australian farms

Median weaning weight and its relationship with the median mature liveweight of does was quantified for four commercial Australian cashmere farms in various parts of Australia. Individual liveweights, of does of all ages at the time of weaning in December, ranged from 9 to 61 kg. Individual farm means of adult does (>1 year old) ranged from 24.6 to 38.8 kg. The model for the logarithm of liveweight was: log₁₀(liveweight) = a + br ^{(Age + 0.6);} where a, b and r are parameters that are different for each farm. The result that the r parameter differs with farm was statistically significant (P = 9.4 10^-6). The percentage variance accounted for was 84.4% and the residual standard deviation was 0.042. Farms differed greatly in the median mature liveweight with some farms reaching ~44 kg and others only 31 kg. Median weaning weight was 14.1 kg (range 11.4-16.8 kg). Median weaning weight as a percentage of median mature doe liveweight on a particular farm varied from 32 to 42%. These weaning weights appear low in absolute and relative terms and thus are likely to incur production penalties.

Human saccadic eye movements and tracking by active foveation in log polar space

One of the possible models of the human visual system (HVS) in the computer vision literature has a high resolution fovea and exponentially decreasing resolution periphery. The high resolution fovea is used to extract necessary information in order to solve a vision task and the periphery may be used to detect motion. To obtain the desired information, the fovea is guided by the contents of the scene and other knowledge to position the fovea over areas of interest. These eye movements are called saccades and corrective saccades. A two stage process has been implemented as a mechanism for changing foveation in log polar space. Initially, the open loop stage roughly foveates on the best interest feature and then the closed loop stage is invoked to accurately iteratively converge onto the foveation point. The open loop stage developed for the foveation algorithm is applied to saccadic eye movements and a tracking system. Log polar space is preferred over Cartesian space as: (1) it simultaneously provides high resolution and a wide viewing angle; and (2) feature invariance occurs in the fovea which simplifies the foveation process.

Effects of task lighting on visual function in age-related macular degeneration

The purpose was to investigate the effects of the spectral power distribution (SPD) and illuminance of task lighting on visual function in age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) compared to normal healthy eyes. Twenty-eight subjects with ARMD and 18 age-matched normal subjects were studied. The effects on visual function were determined for four common task light sources: standard pearl coat incandescent (SP), daylight blue incandescent (DL), warm white fluorescent (WW) and cool white fluorescent (CW). Apart from a small, statistically significant improvement in contrast sensitivity with DL compared to SP lighting (0.5 dB, p = 0.01), there were no significant effects of SPD on other visual functions and no differences in the effects for subjects with ARMD and those with normal vision. Thus, for task lighting typically used in low vision rehabilitation, the SPD would seem to be of minimal clinical importance to visual function. However, increasing the task illuminance had a greater effect on visual function, in particular for subjects with ARMD (p < 0.01). For an increase in illuminance from 300 to 3000 lux, the mean increase in contrast sensitivity and near visual acuity was 1.5 dB and 0.13 log MAR, respectively. Although this effect is not large, we suggest that it is clinically relevant and supports the provision of additional task illuminance as an important part of low vision rehabilitation for patients with ARMD.

π-Selective stationary phases: (I) Influence of the spacer chain length of phenyl type phases on the aromatic and methylene selectivity of aromatic compounds in reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography

Phenyl type stationary phases of increasing spacer chain length (phenyl, methyl phenyl, ethyl phenyl, propyl phenyl and butyl phenyl, with 0–4 carbon atoms in the spacer chain, respectively) were synthesised and packed in house to determine the impact that the spacer chain length has on the retention process. Two trends in the aromatic selectivity, q_aromatic, were observed, depending on whether the number of carbon atoms in the spacer chain is even or odd. Linear log k′ vs ϕ plots were obtained for each stationary phase and the S coefficient was determined from the gradient of these plots. For the phenyl type phases, the S vs n_c plots of the retention factors of linear polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons vs the number of rings exhibit a distinct discontinuity that between 3 and 4 rings, which increases with increasing spacer chain length for even phases but decreases for odd phases. Accordingly, we suggest that the retention factors depend differently on the number of carbon atoms in the spacer chain depending on whether this number is even or odd and that this effect is caused by different orientations of the aromatic ring relative to the silica surface.

Time correlated anomaly detection based on inferences

Anomaly detection techniques are used to find the presence of anomalous activities in a network by comparing traffic data activities against a "normal" baseline. Although it has several advantages which include detection of "zero-day" attacks, the question surrounding absolute definition of systems deviations from its "normal" behaviour is important to reduce the number of false positives in the system. This study proposes a novel multi-agent network-based framework known as Statistical model for Correlation and Detection (SCoDe), an anomaly detection framework that looks for timecorrelated anomalies by leveraging statistical properties of a large network, monitoring the rate of events occurrence based on their intensity. SCoDe is an instantaneous learning-based anomaly detector, practically shifting away from the conventional technique of having a training phase prior to detection. It does acquire its training using the improved extension of Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) which is proposed in this study. SCoDe does not require any previous knowledge of the network traffic, or network administrators chosen reference window as normal but effectively builds upon the statistical properties from different attributes of the network traffic, to correlate undesirable deviations in order to identify abnormal patterns. The approach is generic as it can be easily modified to fit particular types of problems, with a predefined attribute, and it is highly robust because of the proposed statistical approach. The proposed framework was targeted to detect attacks that increase the number of activities on the network server, examples which include Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) and, flood and flash-crowd events. This paper provides a mathematical foundation for SCoDe, describing the specific implementation and testing of the approach based on a network log file generated from the cyber range simulation experiment of the industrial partner of this project.

Persistence of Escherichia coli on injured iceberg lettuce in the field, overhead irrigated with contaminated water

Fresh produce is increasingly implicated in food-related illnesses. Escherichia coli can survive in soil and water and can be transferred onto plant surfaces through farm management practices such as irrigation. A trial was conducted to evaluate the impact of field conditions on E. coli persistence on iceberg lettuce irrigated with contaminated water, and the impact of plant injury on the persistence of E. coli. Lettuce heads were injured at 14, 7, 3, 2, 1, and 0 days before inoculation, with uninjured heads used as a control. All lettuce heads (including controls) were overhead irrigated with a mixture of nonpathogenic E. coli strains (10^sup 7^ CFU/ml). E. coli counts were measured on the day of inoculation and 5 days after, and E. coli was detected on all lettuce head samples. Injury immediately prior to inoculation and harvest significantly (P = 0.00067) increased persistence of E. coli on lettuce plants. Harsh environmental conditions (warm temperatures, limited rainfall) over 5 days resulted in a 2.2-log reduction in E. coli counts on uninjured lettuce plants, and lettuce plants injured more than 2 days prior to inoculation had similar results. Plants with more recent injuries (up to 2 days prior to inoculation) had significantly (P = 7.6 × 10^sup -6^) greater E. coli persistence. Therefore, growers should postpone contaminated water irrigation of lettuce crops with suspected injuries for a minimum of 2 days, or if unavoidable, use the highest microbiological quality of water available, to minimize food safety risks.

Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.

Effects of acute alkalosis and acidosis on performance

Ingestion of agents that modify blood buffering action may affect high-intensity performance. Here we present a meta-analysis of the effects of acute ingestion of three such agents - sodium bicarbonate, sodium citrate and ammonium chloride - on performance and related physiological variables (blood bicarbonate, pH and lactate). A literature search yielded 59 useable studies with 188 observations of performance effects. To perform the mixed- model meta-analysis, all performance effects were converted into a percentage change in mean power and were weighted using standard errors derived from exact p-values, confidence limits (CLs) or estimated errors of measurement. The fixed effects in the meta-analytic model included the number of performance-test bouts (linear), test duration (log linear), blinding (yes/no), competitive status (athiete/nonathlete) and sex (male/female). Dose expressed as buffering mmoL/kg/body mass (BM) was included as a strictly proportional linear effect interacted with all effects except blinding. Probabilistic inferences were derived with reference to thresholds for small and moderate effects on performance of 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Publication bias was reduced by excluding study estimates with a standard error >2.7%. The remaining 38 studies and 137 estimates for sodium bicarbonate produced a possibly mod- erate performance enhancement of 1.7% (90% CL ± 2.0%) with a typical dose of 3.5mmoL/kg/BM (-0.3g/kgIBM) in a single 1-minute sprint, following blinded consumption by male athletes. In the 16 studies and 45 estimates for sodium citrate, a typical dose of l.SmmoL/kgIBM (-0.5gIkgJBM) had an unclear effect on performance of 0.0% (±1.3%), while the five studies and six estimates for ammonium chloride produced a possibly moderate impairment of 1.6% (±1.9%) with a typical dose of 5.5mmoL/kgIBM (-0.3glkg/BM). Study and subject characteristics had the following modifying small effects on the enhancement of performance with sodium bicarbonate: an increase of 0.5% (±0.6%) with a 1 mmoL/kg/BM increase in dose; an increase of 0.6% (±0.4%) with five extra sprint bouts; a reduction of 0.6% (±0.9%) for each 10-fold increase in test duration (e.g. 1-10 minutes); reductions of 1.1% (± 1 .1%) with nonathletes and 0.7% (±1.4%) with females. Unexplained variation in effects between research settings was typically ± 1.2%. The only noteworthy effects involving physiological variables were a small correlation between performance and pre-exercise increase in blood bicarbonate with sodium bi- carbonate ingestion, and a very large correlation between the increase in blood bicarbonate and time between sodium citrate ingestion and exercise. The approximate equal and opposite effects of sodium bicarbonate and am- monium chloride are consistent with direct performance effects of pH, but sodium citrate appears to have some additional metabolic inhibitory effect. Important future research includes studies of sodium citrate ingestion several hours before exercise and quantification of gastrointestinal symptoms with sodium bicarbonate and citrate. Although individual responses may vary, we recommend ingestion of 0.3-0.5 glkg/BM sodium bicarbonate to improve mean power by 1.7% (±2.0%) in high-intensity races of short duration. ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR

Wear of permanent incisors with age on commercial Australian Angora goat farms

OBJECTIVE: To quantify if, and to what extent, permanent incisor wear differed with age of goat and farm of origin on commercial Australian Angora goat farms. DESIGN: Observations were made on three Angora goat farms in the wheat-sheep zone of Victoria, each managed according to the farmer's practices. Farmers provided a representative flock of does. METHODS: The proportion and pattern of wear of permanent incisors were recorded and percentage wear calculated. After log(y + 10) transformation, a parsimonious general linear model was developed to relate wear to farm and age, with age considered as a continuous variate. RESULTS: The range in wear of the permanent incisors was 0-100%. For each farm, the most parsimonious model for permanent first incisor wear and average wear of all permanent incisors was a separate straight line relating the transformed incisor wear to the age of doe. The models accounted for 66-73% of variance. On each farm the incisor wear was similar and low for ages up to approximately 4 years. On all farms, the amount of incisor wear increased dramatically with age, although the rate of increase differed with each farm. CONCLUSIONS: Permanent incisor wear increased with age of goat and differed with farm of origin. Angora goat farmers need to be aware of the potential for incisor wear to affect doe production and health.

The effects of topographic variation and the fire regime on coarse woody debris: insights from a large wildfire

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a common structural component of terrestrial ecosystems, and provides important habitat for biota. Fires modify the distribution of CWD, both spatially and temporally. Changes in fire regimes, such as those arising from prescribed burning and changing climatic conditions, make it critical to understand the response of this resource to fire. We created a conceptual model of the effects of fire on logs and dead trees in topographically diverse forests in which trees often survive severe fire. We then surveyed paired sites, in a damp gully and adjacent drier slope, ~3.5. years after a large wildfire in south-eastern Australia. Sites were stratified by fire severity (unburnt, understorey burnt and severely burnt), and fire history (burnt ≤3. years or ≥20. years prior to the wildfire). Both components of the fire regime influenced CWD availability in gullies. Severe wildfire and fire history ≤3. years reduced the volume of small logs (10-30. cm diameter) in gullies, while severe wildfire increased the number of large dead trees in gullies. CWD on slopes was not affected by fire severity or history at ~3.5. years post-fire. Log volumes on slopes may recover more quickly after wildfire through rapid collapse of branches and trees. Gullies generally supported more logs than slopes, but longer inter-fire intervals in gullies may allow fuel loads to accumulate and lead to comparatively larger fire impacts. Given that fire severity and fire interval are predicted to change in many fire-prone ecosystems in coming decades, this study highlights the importance of understanding the interacting effects of multiple components of the fire regime with landscape structure. In particular, variation in fire interval and fire severity in relation to topographic position will influence the pattern of accumulation of coarse woody debris across the landscape, and therefore the structure and quality of habitats for biota.

K-Center: an approach on the multi-source identification of information diffusion

The global diffusion of epidemics, computer viruses, and rumors causes great damage to our society. It is critical to identify the diffusion sources and timely quarantine them. However, most methods proposed so far are unsuitable for diffusion with multiple sources because of the high computational cost and the complex spatiotemporal diffusion processes. In this paper, based on the knowledge of infected nodes and their connections, we propose a novel method to identify multiple diffusion sources, which can address three main issues in this area: 1) how many sources are there? 2) where did the diffusion emerge? and 3) when did the diffusion break out? We first derive an optimization formulation for multi-source identification problem. This is based on altering the original network into a new network concerning two key elements: 1) propagation probability and 2) the number of hops between nodes. Experiments demonstrate that the altered network can accurately reflect the complex diffusion processes with multiple sources. Second, we derive a fast method to optimize the formulation. It has been proved that the proposed method is convergent and the computational complexity is O(mn log α) , where α = α (m,n) is the slowly growing inverse-Ackermann function, n is the number of infected nodes, and m is the number of edges connecting them. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm to estimate the spreading time and the number of diffusion sources. To evaluate the proposed method, we compare the proposed method with many competing methods in various real-world network topologies. Our method shows significant advantages in the estimation of multiple sources and the prediction of spreading time.

Couch potatoes to jumping beans: a pilot study of the effect of active video games on physical activity in children

The primary objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the effect of active video games on children's physical activity levels.Twenty children (mean +/- SD age = 12 +/- 1.5 years; 40% female) were randomised to receive either an active video game upgrade package or to a control group (no intervention). Effects on physical activity over the 12-week intervention period were measured using objective (Actigraph accelerometer) and subjective (Physical Activity Questionnaire for Children [PAQ-C]) measures. An activity log was used to estimate time spent playing active and non-active video games.Children in the intervention group spent less mean time over the total 12-week intervention period playing all video games compared to those in the control group (54 versus 98 minutes/day [difference = -44 minutes/day, 95% CI [-92, 2]], p = 0.06). Average time spent in all physical activities measured with an accelerometer was higher in the active video game intervention group compared to the control group (difference at 6 weeks = 194 counts/min, p = 0.04, and at 12 weeks = 48 counts/min, p = 0.06).This preliminary study suggests that playing active video games on a regular basis may have positive effects on children's overall physical activity levels. Further research is needed to confirm if playing these games over a longer period of time could also have positive effects on children's body weight and body mass index.