A factor analytical approach to the efficient futures market hypothesis

Most empirical evidence suggests that the efficient futures market hypothesis, henceforth referred to as EFMH, stating that spot and futures prices should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This article argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. The current article can be seen as a step in this direction. In particular, a newly developed factor analytical approach is employed, which is very general and, in addition, free of the otherwise so common incidental parameters bias in the presence of fixed effects. The approach is applied to a large panel covering 17 commodities between March 1991 and August 2012. The evidence suggests that the EFMH cannot be rejected once the panel evidence has been taken into account. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An analytical approach to predict web-warping and longitudinal strain in flexible roll formed sections of variable width

To reduce weight and improve passenger safety there is an increased need in the automotive industry to use Ultra High Strength Steel (UHSS) for structural and crash components. However, the application of UHSS is restricted by their limited formability and the difficulty of forming them in conventional stamping. An alternative method of manufacturing structural auto body parts from UHSS is the flexible roll forming process, which allows the manufacture of metal sheet with high strength and limited ductility into complex and weight-optimized components. One major problem in the flexible roll forming of UHSS is the web-warping defect, which is the deviation in height of the web area over the length of the profile. It has been shown that web-warping is strongly dependant to the permanent longitudinal strain formed in the flange of the part. Flexible roll forming is a continuous process with many roll stands, which makes numerical analysis extremely time intensive and computationally expensive. An analytical model of web-warping is therefore critical to improve design efficiency during the early process design stage before FEA is applied. This paper establishes for the first time an analytical model for the prediction of web-warping for the flexible roll forming of a section with variable width. The model is based on evaluating longitudinal edge strain in the flange of the part. This information is then used in combination with a simple geometrical model to investigate the relationship between web-warping and longitudinal strain with respect to process parameters.

A factor analytical approach to price discovery

Existing econometric approaches for studying price discovery presume that the number of markets are small, and their properties become suspect when this restriction is not met. They also require making identifying restrictions and are in many cases not suitable for statistical inference. The current paper takes these shortcomings as a starting point to develop a factor analytical approach that makes use of the cross-sectional variation of the data, yet is very user-friendly in that it does not involve any identifying restrictions or obstacles to inference.

Adoption of the world wide web by traditional Australian media organisations

The aim of this paper is it to identify whether Australian media companies moved online with a clear business model in mind or in an ad-hoc manner. In-depth interviews were conducted with four Internet media managers from two large Australian media organisations. All four had been involved in Web publishing from its early stages and had extensive knowledge of the development of Web publishing in the industry. The interviews focused on the period around the mid 1990’s when the early development of the organisations’ websites took place. We also review an analytical approach of examining narratives from research interviews developed by Davidson (Davidson 1997) and Mishler (Mishler1986a, 1986b).

The tri-dimensional role of information security in E-business : a managerial perspective

The effective management of information and its associated infrastructure is critical in electronic business. Failure to exercise due diligence in information assurance and security may lead to lost revenue or business opportunities, brand and reputation erosion, adverse media publicity, scrutiny from consumer advocates and even lawsuits. Traditionally, information security was approached in terms of goals. Yet, the goalsoriented approach may be a flawed one. In this paper, we adopt a conceptual analytical approach and propose a tri-dimensional understanding of information security in electronic business. Our approach can help managers better understand and communicate the information security’s role in e-business and the inter-dependencies between business and legal requirements, for devising the goals, objectives and policies relevant to their organization.

Sudden drawdown and drainage of a horizontal aquifer

Drainage of a saturated horizontal aquifer following a sudden drawdown is reanalyzed using the Boussinesq equation. The effect of the finite length of the aquifer is considered in detail. An analytical approximation based on a superposition principle yields a very good estimate of the outflow when compared to accurate numerical solutions. An illustration of the new analytical approach to analyze basin-scale field data is used to demonstrate possible field applications of the new solution.

Traditional Australian media organisations adoption of the World Wide Web

The aim of this paper is it to identify whether Australian media companies moved online with a clear business model in mind or in an ad-hoc manner. In-depth interviews were conducted with four Interact media managers from two large Australian media organisations. All four had been involved in Web publishing from its early stages and had extensive knowledge of the development of Web publishing in the industry. The interviews focused on the period around the mid 1990's when the early development of the organisations' websites took place. We also review an analytical approach of examining narratives from research interviews developed by Davidson (Davidson 1997) and Mishler (Mishler1986a, 1986b).

Show me the money

In the rush to become part of the e-business revolution many companies are tossing aside conventional thinking when it comes to analyzing the return on their investment. Too often, however, ignoring formal justification of any investment is a recipe for disaster. With this in mind, a study on the justification processes used by companies when investing in e-business was conducted. The research identified several benefits gained from investing in e-business. Participants highlighted several e-business benefits including: opening up new markets, improving access to management information and reducing operating costs. The justification methods used in organizations could be easily classified into 4 groups: 1. a strategic approach, 2. the integrated approach, 3. an analytical approach, and 4. a financial approach.

Modelling multi-criteria decision analysis for benchmarking management practices in project management

The link between management practices and worker’s motivations impacting construction productivity is being considered as significant among the research community. This research aimed to identify and analyse the underlying attributes impacting construction productivity from the site management perspective. This research presents a framework designed to analyse and quantify the relative relevance of different drivers in the determination of productivity levels and the degree of effectiveness of potential opportunities for improving performance of overall projects. Owing to the complexity of construction projects and underlying conflicting drivers influencing higher worker’s productivity, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to deal with interdependent relationships within a multi-criteria decision-making model. In the analytical approach, the large unstructured decision parameters are identified first and then are broken down into the manageable and measurable components using a top down hierarchical structure. This paper demonstrates an example to illustrate how to empirically analyse and prioritise a set of influencing parameters as selection criteria in devising appropriate management practices to ensure higher productivity vis-à-vis optimum performance of projects.

Community school teacher education and the construction of pedagogical discourse in Papua New Guinea

Pedagogical discourse in Papua New Guinea (PNG) community schooling is mediated by a western styles education. The daily administration and organisation of school activity, graded teaching and learning, subject selection, content boundaries, teaching and assessment methods are all patterned after western schooling. This educational settlement is part of a legacy of German, British and Australian government and non-government colonialism that officially came to an end in 1975. Given the colonial heritage of schooling in PNG, this study is interested in exploring particular aspects of the degree of mutuality between local discourses and the discourses of a western styled pedagogy in post-colonial times, for the purpose of better informing community school teacher education practices. This research takes place at and in the vicinity of Madang Teachers College, a pre-service community school teachers college on the north coast of Papua New Guinea. The research was carried out in the context of the researcher’s employment as a contract lecturer in the English language Department between 1991-1993. As an in-situ study it was influenced by the roles of different participants and the circumstances in which data was gathered and constituted, data which was compatible with participants commitments to community school teacher education and community school teaching and learning. In the exploration of specific pedagogic practices different qualitative research approaches and perspectives were brought to bear in ways best suited to the circumstances of the practice. In this way analytical foci were more dictated by circumstances rather by design. The analytical approach is both a hermeneutic one where participants’ activities are ‘read like texts’, where what is said or written is interpreted against the background of other informing contexts and texts, to better understand how understandings and meanings are produced and circulated; and also a phenomenological one where participants’ perspectives are sought to better understand how pedagogical discursive formations are assimilated with the ‘self’. The effect of shifting between these approaches throughout the study is to build up a sense of co-authorship between researcher and participants in relation to particular aspects of the research. The research explores particular sites where pedagogic discourse is produced, re-produced, distributed, articulated, consumed and contested, and in doing so seeks to better understand what counts as pedagogical discourse. These are sites that are largely unexplored in these terms, in the academic literature on teacher education and community schooling in PNG. As such, they represent gaps in what is documented and understood about the nature of post-colonial pedagogy and teacher training. The first site is a grade two community school class involved in the teaching and early learning of English as the ‘official’ language of instruction. Here local discourses of solidarity and agreement are seen to be mobilised to make meaningful, what are for the teacher and children moments in their construction as post-colonial subjects. What in instructional terms may be seen as an English language lesson becomes, in the light of the research perspectives used, an exercise in the structuring of new social identities, relations and knowings, problematising autonomous views of teaching and learning. The second site explores this issue of autonomous (decontextualised) teaching and learning through an investigation of student teachers’ epistemological contextualisations of knowledge, teaching and learning. What is examined is the way such orientations are constructed in terms of ‘traditional’ and ‘modern’ epistemological and pedagogical alignments, and, in terms of differently conceived notions of community, in a problematisation of the notion of community schooling. The third and fourth sites examine reflective accounts of student teachers’ pedagogic practices, understandings and subjectivities as they confront the moral and political economies and cultural politics of schooling in School Experiences and Practicum contexts, and show how dominant behaviourist and ‘rational/autonomous’ conceptions of what counts as teaching and learning are problematised in the way some students teachers draw upon wider social discourses to construct a dialogue with learners. The final site is a return to the community school where the discourse of school reports through which teachers, children and parents are constructed as particular subjects of schooling, are explored. Here teachers report children’s progress over a four year period and parents write back in conforming, confronting and contesting ways, in the midst of the ongoing enculturation of their children. In this milieu, schooling is shown to be a provider of differentiated social qualifications rather than a socially just and relevant education. Each of the above-mentioned studies form part of a research and pedagogic interest in understanding the ‘disciplining’ effects of schooling upon teacher education, the particular consequences of those effects, what is embraces, resisted and hidden. Each of the above sites is informed by various ‘intertexts’. The use of intertexts is designed to provide a multiplicity of views, actions and voices while enhancing the process of cross-cultural reading through contextualising the studies in ways that reveal knowledges and practices which are often excluded in more conventional accounts of teaching and learning. This research represents a journey, but not an aimless one. It is one which reads the ideological messages of coherence, impartiality and moral soundness of western pedagogical discourse against the school experiences of student-teachers, teachers, children and parents, in post-colonial Papua New Guinea, and finds them lacking.

Regressive logistic and proportional hazards disease models for within-family analyses of measured genotypes, with application to a CYP17 polymorphism and breast cancer

Various statistical methods have been proposed to evaluate associations between measured genetic variants and disease, including some using family designs. For breast cancer and rare variants, we applied a modified segregation analysis method that uses the population cancer incidence and population-based case families in which a mutation is known to be segregating. Here we extend the method to a common polymorphism, and use a regressive logistic approach to model familial aggregation by conditioning each individual on their mother's breast cancer history. We considered three models: 1) class A regressive logistic model; 2) age-of-onset regressive logistic model; and 3) proportional hazards familial model. Maximum likelihood estimates were calculated using the software MENDEL. We applied these methods to data from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study on the CYP17 5UTR TC MspA1 polymorphism measured for 1,447 case probands, 787 controls, and 213 relatives of case probands found to have the CC genotype. Breast cancer data for first- and second-degree relatives of case probands were used. The three methods gave consistent estimates. The best-fitting model involved a recessive inheritance, with homozygotes being at an increased risk of 47% (95% CI, 28-68%). The cumulative risk of the disease up to age 70 years was estimated to be 10% or 22% for a CYP17 homozygote whose mother was unaffected or affected, respectively. This analytical approach is well-suited to the data that arise from population-based case-control-family studies, in which cases, controls and relatives are studied, and genotype is measured for some but not all subjects.