Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk : reoffending rates for rapists, child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.

Assessing risk for sexual offenders in New Zealand : development and validation of a computer-scored risk measure

A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced when the variables used can be extracted from existing electronic databases. This study reports the results of applying a computerized set of historical variables with a sample of 1,133 male sexual offenders released from prison by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. Area under the curve figures of 0.70-0.78 were obtained over periods of 5 to 15 years, reflecting a significant level of association with sexual recidivism. Detected rates of re-offending across risk levels were comparable to those previously reported for the Static-99. Rates of sexual re-offending by child molesters for all sexual offences and offences against child victims are reported separately.

Risk assessment of child-victim sex offenders for extended supervision in New Zealand

Recently enacted legislation in New Zealand, the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, allows for the imposition of up to 10 years of supervision in the community for child-victim sex offenders following their release from prison. The Act requires reports to be written specifically assessing the risk of sexual re-offending against children. This study examined the application of actuarial measures used by the New Zealand Department of Corrections in these assessments, including a computer-scored instrument based on static factors (the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale; ASRS) and a clinically-based judgement of dynamic risk factors (the SONAR). It was expected that a conservative approach would be taken in making recommendations for or against extended periods of supervision, such that a high score on either measure would predict a recommendation for extended supervision. It was found, however, that a more individualized approach was often taken, whereby a baseline assessment of risk as predicted by the ASRS was adjusted by clinicians based on SONAR ratings. Implications for the practice of risk assessment in sexual re-offending are discussed.

Specific risk assessment based on victim type in children sexual offenders

Actuarial instruments for assessing sex offender recidivism have limited utility for specific risk assessment questions, such as the risk posed to particular types of victim. In order to obtain variables that discriminate between offenders with different classes of victim, data were coded from 324 files of child sexual offenders from a community-based sexual offender treatment program. Offenders with single or multiple victims were compared, as were offenders who did or did not offend against victims of both genders, and offenders with only intra-familial or extra-familial victims versus offenders with victims in both relationship categories. Variables that discriminated single-victim and multiple-victim offenders were similar to those identified in actuarial risk assessment scales, with the exception of history of childhood sexual abuse. With the exception of physical abuse history, the same variables discriminated specific offender groups according to victim gender and victim relationship, although in different combinations. There was limited support for the notion of specific risk variables.

Risk assessment with female sex offenders : can women meet the criteria of community protection laws?

Although females represent a small proportion of the sex offender population, they occasionally appear before the courts under the current generation of laws intended to protect the public from high-risk sex offenders. In this context, practitioners are called upon to provide assessment of the risk these women pose for sexual re-offending. The primary issues addressed in this paper are related to the validity of conducting such risk assessments and providing professional opinions as to the risk of further sexual offences that may be committed by female offenders. The approach taken is to summarize briefly the available professional literature regarding female sex offenders, and then to present the findings of the relatively few empirical studies that address sexual recidivism in females. The final section examines the positions taken in the published works of various international experts regarding risk assessment with females, followed by conclusions and recommendations in light of the standards typically prescribed by community protection laws.

Recent research (N=9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments

A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from “agestratified” actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the “multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1),” from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the “age invariance effect” that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

Back to basics : empirical support for the importance of release planning in reducing sex offender recidivism

This article reports findings from a series of empirical studies investigating whether poor release planning might contribute to sex offender recidivism. A coding protocol was developed to measure the comprehensiveness of release planning which included items relating to accommodation, employment, pro-social support, community based treatment, and the Good Lives Model (T. Ward & C.A. Stewart, 2003) secondary goods. The protocol was retrospectively applied to groups of recidivist and non recidivist child molesters, matched on static risk level and time since release. As predicted, overall release planning was significantly poorer for recidivists compared to non recidivists. The accommodation, employment, and social support items combined to best predict recidivism, with predictive accuracy comparable to that obtained using static risk models. Results highlighted the importance of release planning in efforts to reduce sex offender recidivism. Implications for policy makers and community members are briefly discussed.

The quality of community reintegration planning for child molesters : effects on sexual recidivism

Research on the causal factors underlying sex offender recidivism has not considered the success or failure of the reintegration process by which the offender rejoins the community after prison. The authors developed a coding protocol to measure the quality and comprehensiveness of reintegration planning for sex offenders. The protocol was retrospectively applied to groups of recidivists and nonrecidivists who were matched on static risk level and follow-up time. The protocol demonstrated adequate reliability. Compared to nonrecidivists, recidivists had significantly lower scores relating to accommodation, employment, and the Good Lives Model secondary goods, as well as lower total reintegration plan scores. ANCOVAs showed that when IQ and level of sexual deviance were controlled for, accommodation (a place to live) was significantly related to sexual recidivism and the Good Lives Model—secondary goods was significantly related to any recidivism. These results suggest that poor reintegration planning may be a risk factor for recidivism.

The rehabilitation of offenders : reducing risk and promoting better lives

This article examines the nature of offender rehabilitation and briefly reviews the effectiveness of correctional interventions in reducing recidivism. It then outlines the two most prominent contemporary theories of offender rehabilitation: the Risk-Need-Responsivity Model and the Good Lives Model (GLM). Our aim is to introduce these two broad rehabilitation frameworks and analyse their practice implications. We conclude that the GLM can offer an alternative view of offender rehabilitation that seeks to help offenders live more fulfilling lives while also reducing risk.

Mental health diversion courts: a two year recidivism study of a South Australian mental health court program.

The need to develop specialized judicial processes to deal with offenders with mental illnesses is now widely recognized and has led to the introduction of mental health court diversion programs around the world. At present, however, there is only limited evidence from which to assess the impact of these initiatives. This paper describes the South Australian model of diversion, with specific reference to the relationship between identified participant characteristics, program compliance rates, and re-offending outcomes. The results of a two-year recidivism study suggest that involvement with the program has a positive impact on recidivism, but that this is independent from the individual's level of success in the program. Lower risk offenders were more likely to achieve successful outcomes than those in the higher risk categories. The implications of these results, as well the factors that might inform the ongoing development of mental health court programs, are discussed.

Recidivism among participants of an employment assistance program for prisoners and offenders

Recidivism outcomes were examined over a 2-year postrelease period for participants of an Australian employment assistance program. The voluntary 12-month program operated from 17 Victorian correctional locations, 7 prisons, and 10 community corrections locations, targeting participants at moderate to high risk of reoffending. Recidivism outcomes included simple rates of reoffending for the whole program (N = 3,034 registered participants) and analyses of rate and seriousness of reoffending and extent of poly-offending for a random sample of 600 program participants and 600 nonparticipants. Offending among program participants' pre- and post-registration was also investigated. Results showed a very low rate of reoffending (7.46%) for the entire program participant group while engaged in the program. As well, program participants had significantly lower levels of recidivism than nonparticipants, and postregistration offending was significantly lower than preregistration offending. Findings indicate that long-term postrelease employment support programs provide positive benefits in terms of reduced reoffending.

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in this issue); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. doi:10.1080/1068316X.2014.917854]. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.