Risk assessment of sexual offenders for extended supervision orders in New Zealand : basic principles and current practice

A growing number of jurisdictions in North America, the United Kingdom, and Australasia have enacted legislation allowing for special sentencing, civil commitment, and community supervision options for high risk sexual offenders. In New Zealand, one example of this concern for public protection is the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, which provides for additional supervision of sexual offenders with child victims for up to 10 years after their release from prison. Recent experience with expert evidence and judicial decision making in such cases suggests that those involved in the process might benefit from a more thorough understanding of the current state of sexual offender risk assessment that can be provided by mental health professionals.

Risk assessment of child-victim sex offenders for extended supervision in New Zealand

Recently enacted legislation in New Zealand, the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, allows for the imposition of up to 10 years of supervision in the community for child-victim sex offenders following their release from prison. The Act requires reports to be written specifically assessing the risk of sexual re-offending against children. This study examined the application of actuarial measures used by the New Zealand Department of Corrections in these assessments, including a computer-scored instrument based on static factors (the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale; ASRS) and a clinically-based judgement of dynamic risk factors (the SONAR). It was expected that a conservative approach would be taken in making recommendations for or against extended periods of supervision, such that a high score on either measure would predict a recommendation for extended supervision. It was found, however, that a more individualized approach was often taken, whereby a baseline assessment of risk as predicted by the ASRS was adjusted by clinicians based on SONAR ratings. Implications for the practice of risk assessment in sexual re-offending are discussed.

Case formulation with sex offenders : an illustration of individualized risk assessment

There has been a rapid expansion of the professional literature in risk assessment with sexual offenders over the past 20 years.  However, recent professional experience suggests that risk assessment reports often fail to be as relevant or useful as they might be for judicial decision-makers.  Research with large samples of offenders has refined our understanding of identifiable subgroups with different rates of sexual reoffending, but the management of risk requires that we deal effectively with individual offenders.  One area that can be improved is the development of case formulations of risk.  Clinicians must move beyond the mechanical use of actuarial static and dynamic risk factors to a broader integration of relevant information about the individual if they are to assist in managing risk in a way that serves the needs of the offender while protecting public safety.

Specific risk assessment based on victim type in children sexual offenders

Actuarial instruments for assessing sex offender recidivism have limited utility for specific risk assessment questions, such as the risk posed to particular types of victim. In order to obtain variables that discriminate between offenders with different classes of victim, data were coded from 324 files of child sexual offenders from a community-based sexual offender treatment program. Offenders with single or multiple victims were compared, as were offenders who did or did not offend against victims of both genders, and offenders with only intra-familial or extra-familial victims versus offenders with victims in both relationship categories. Variables that discriminated single-victim and multiple-victim offenders were similar to those identified in actuarial risk assessment scales, with the exception of history of childhood sexual abuse. With the exception of physical abuse history, the same variables discriminated specific offender groups according to victim gender and victim relationship, although in different combinations. There was limited support for the notion of specific risk variables.

Assessing risk for sexual offenders in New Zealand : development and validation of a computer-scored risk measure

A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced when the variables used can be extracted from existing electronic databases. This study reports the results of applying a computerized set of historical variables with a sample of 1,133 male sexual offenders released from prison by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. Area under the curve figures of 0.70-0.78 were obtained over periods of 5 to 15 years, reflecting a significant level of association with sexual recidivism. Detected rates of re-offending across risk levels were comparable to those previously reported for the Static-99. Rates of sexual re-offending by child molesters for all sexual offences and offences against child victims are reported separately.

A conditional probability approach to risk assessment for child sexual offenders with different classes of victim

Specific scales were developed for discriminating child sexual offenders with different classes of victim. The project demonstrates a method of individualising scores on actuarial risk assessment measured in a way that makes them more meaningful for those involved in decision-making about individual child sexual offenders. At present, the only quantifiable approach to specific decision-making relies on a general prediction of future behaviour, based on group data. The Bayesian approach is one method that can be used to assist decision-makers to use this information in ways that lead to the more appropriate management of risk. Ultimately, the better management of known child sexual offenders will lead to fewer offences and a reduction in the number of children who lives are profoundly affected by sexual victimisation.

Risk assessment with female sex offenders : can women meet the criteria of community protection laws?

Although females represent a small proportion of the sex offender population, they occasionally appear before the courts under the current generation of laws intended to protect the public from high-risk sex offenders. In this context, practitioners are called upon to provide assessment of the risk these women pose for sexual re-offending. The primary issues addressed in this paper are related to the validity of conducting such risk assessments and providing professional opinions as to the risk of further sexual offences that may be committed by female offenders. The approach taken is to summarize briefly the available professional literature regarding female sex offenders, and then to present the findings of the relatively few empirical studies that address sexual recidivism in females. The final section examines the positions taken in the published works of various international experts regarding risk assessment with females, followed by conclusions and recommendations in light of the standards typically prescribed by community protection laws.

Sex offender risk assessment : consideration of human rights in community protection legislation

ObjectivesRisk assessments provided to judicial decision makers as a part of the current generation of legislation for protecting the public from sexual offenders can have a profound impact on the rights of individual offenders. This article will identify some of the human rights issues inherent in using the current assessment procedures to formulate and communicate risk as a forensic expert in cases involving civil commitment, preventive detention, extended supervision, or special conditions of parole. MethodBased on the current professional literature and applied experience in legal proceedings under community protection laws in the United States and New Zealand, potential threats to the rights of offenders are identified. Central to these considerations are issues of the accuracy of current risk assessment measures, communicating the findings of risk assessment appropriately to the court, and the availability of competent forensic mental health professionals in carrying out these functions. The role of the forensic expert is discussed in light of the competing demands of protecting individual human rights and community protection. ConclusionActuarial risk assessment represents the best practice for informing judicial decision makers in cases involving sex offenders, yet these measures currently demonstrate substantial limitations in predictive accuracy when applied to individual offenders. These limitations must be clearly articulated when reporting risk assessment findings. Sufficient risk assessment expertise should be available to provide a balanced application of community protection laws.

Putting woman-centered care into practice : a new (ANEW) approach to psychosocial risk assessment during pregnancy

Background: When antenatal care is provided, identification and management of challenging problems, such as depression, domestic violence, child abuse, and substance abuse, are absent from traditional midwifery and medical training. The main objective of this project was to provide an alternative to psychosocial risk screening in pregnancy by offering a training program (ANEW) in advanced communication skills and common psychosocial issues to midwives and doctors, with the aim of improving identification and support of women with psychosocial issues in pregnancy.

Methods: ANEW used a before‐and‐after survey design to evaluate the effects of a 6‐month educational intervention for health professionals. The setting for the project was the Mercy Hospital for Women in Melbourne, Australia. Surveys covered issues, such as perceived competency and comfort in dealing with specific psychosocial issues, self‐rated communication skills, and open‐ended questions about participants' experience of the educational program.

Results: Educational program participants (n = 22/27) completed both surveys. After the educational intervention, participants were more likely to ask directly about domestic violence (p = 0.05), past sexual abuse (p = 0.05), and concerns about caring for the baby (p = 0.03). They were less likely to report that psychosocial issues made them feel overwhelmed (p = 0.01), and they reported significant gains in knowledge of psychosocial issues, and competence in dealing with them. Participants were highly positive about the experience of participating in the program.

Conclusions:The program increased the self‐reported comfort and competency of health professionals to identify and care for women with psychosocial issues.

Does the polygraph lead to better risk prediction for sexual offenders?

The polygraph is receiving increased attention surrounding its ability to facilitate more honest disclosures from sexual offenders concerning risk-related information (e.g., historical risk factors and acute-dynamic risk factors). In addition, the polygraph has become accepted as a standard containment tool in the US, although UK professionals appear to have taken a more cautionary approach. The aim of this review is to provide a basic overview of current risk assessment procedure in the absence of the polygraph, and then to investigate studies that use the polygraph to enhance sexual offenders' risk assessments. Specifically, studies examining historical risk factors, stable-dynamic risk factors, and acute-dynamic risk factors are examined and evaluated. We conclude that there is reasonable evidence supporting polygraph use in some areas of risk assessment. However, the vast majority of studies suffers from serious confounds that should be taken into account by professionals who use the polygraph as a standard practice in sexual offender risk assessment and management. Finally, the future of the polygraph is discussed in light of the presented empirical evidence.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project's objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner

Quantitative microbial risk assessment modelling for the use of reclaimed water in irrigated horticulture

Reuse of treated sewage effluent for the irrigation of horticultural crops is being propounded and practiced as a means of alleviating pressure on freshwater resources. Concerns have been raised. however, as to the risk to human health, primarily disease, associated with this practice. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a useful tool for estimating this risk. We describe how QMRA works and the current state of knowledge of the components of QMRA models for the horticultural reuse scenario.

Risk assessment in child protection: problem rather than solution?

Risk assessment in child protection services has been promoted as the most reliable way to ensure that maltreatment to children is prevented and has become central to practice with children and families. However, recent research in Australia has suggested that children are being left in unsafe situations, leading to further maltreatment, by the very agencies responsible for their protection. The present article explores the reasons why child protection has become central to child protection practice and presents a wide ranging critical appraisal of risk assessment and its application. It is argued that risk assessment is a flawed process and, as a central tenet of practice, is implicated in any problems that children's protective services face. Consequently, any future reconfiguration of services for children in need of protection needs to include a re-evaluation of the efficacy of risk  assessment.