Contests with the probability of a draw : a stochastic foundation

This article proposes a stochastic foundation for the contest success function (CSF for short) with a richer structure on the set of possible outcomes of the contest. Specifically, the analysis allows for the possibility of a draw, so that no contestant can claim a victory over all other players. Under plausible conditions, this article not only discovers new functional forms of CSFs, but also shows the newly derived CSFs have very different properties in equilibrium to those of conventional CSFs. For example, in contrast to the CSFs discussed in the contest literature, which always generate a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium, the newly discovered CSFs admit the possibility of multiple equilibria.

Climatic, vegetation and edaphic influences on the probability of fire across mediterranean woodlands of south-eastern Australia

 Aim: We investigated how the probability of burning is influenced by the time since fire (TSF) and gradients of climate, soil and vegetation in the fire-prone mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. This provided insight into the processes controlling contemporary fuel dynamics and fire regimes across biogeographical boundaries, and the consequent effects of climate change on potential shifts in boundaries between fuel systems and fire regimes, at a subcontinental scale. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: A desktop-based GIS was used to generate random sampling points across the study region to collect data on intersecting fire interval, rainfall, vegetation and soil type. We used a Bayesian framework to examine the effects of combinations of rainfall, vegetation and soil type on the hazard-of-burning and survival parameters of the Weibull distribution. These analyses identify the nature of environmental controls on the length of fire intervals and the age-dependence of the hazard of burning. Results: Higher rainfall was consistently associated with shorter fire intervals. Within a single level of rainfall, however, the interaction between soil and vegetation type influenced the length of fire intervals. Higher-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in grass-dominated communities, whereas lower-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in shrub-dominated communities. The hazard of burning remained largely independent of TSF across the region, only markedly increasing with TSF in shrub-dominated communities at high rainfall. Main conclusions: Rainfall had a dominant influence on fire frequency in the mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. Predicted changes in the spatial distribution and amount of rainfall therefore have the potential to drive changes in fire regimes, although the effects of soil fertility and rainfall on fire regimes do not align on a simple productivity gradient. Reduced soil fertility may favour plant traits that increase the rate of woody litter fuel accumulation and flammability, which may alter the overriding influence of rainfall gradients on fire regimes.

Using occupancy as a state variable for monitoring the critically endangered Alaotran gentle lemur Hapalemur alaotrensis

Although monitoring is an essential tool for biodiversity conservation, monitoring programmes are often poorly designed and thus unlikely to produce results that are meaningful for management. Monitoring is especially challenging when dealing with rare and elusive species in areas where conservation resources are particularly limited. In such cases, monitoring techniques aimed at estimating occupancy represent an attractive alternative to traditional methods concerned with estimating population size, as the collection of detection/non-detection data is in general less costly and easier to implement. In this study, we evaluated the use of occupancy as a state variable for the monitoring of the Alaotran gentle lemur Hapalemur alaotrensis, a Critically Endangered primate exclusively inhabiting the dense marshes around Lake Alaotra in Madagascar. We used a likelihood-based modelling approach that explicitly accounts for detectability. This showed that the probability of detection of H. alaotrensis was extremely low and depended on site characteristics that can vary in space and time, confirming the need to account for imperfect detection when monitoring this species. We used our models to explore factors affecting the probability of occupancy and detection to identify management implications, and also developed recommendations for the ongoing monitoring of this species. The method applied in this study provides an efficient tool for the monitoring of an elusive species and has the potential to provide a flexible sampling framework for local community based monitoring initiatives.

How long should we ignore imperfect detection of species in the marine environment when modelling their distribution?

The application of the 'ecosystem approach' to marine conservation management demands knowledge of the distribution patterns of the target species or communities. This information is commonly obtained from species distribution models (SDMs). This article explores an important but rarely acknowledged assumption in these models: almost all species may be present, but simply not detected by the particular survey method. However, nearly all of these SDM approaches neglect this important characteristic. This leads to the violation of a fundamental assumption of these models, which presuppose the detection of a species is equal to one (i.e. at each survey locality, a species is perfectly detected). In this article, the concept of imperfect detection is discussed, how it potentially influences the prediction of species' distributions is examined, and some statistical methods that could be used to incorporate the detection probability of species in estimates of their distribution are suggested. The approaches discussed here could improve the collection and interpretation of marine biological survey data and provide a coherent way to incorporate detection probability estimates in the modelling of species distributions. This will ultimately lead to an unbiased and more rigorous understanding of the distribution of species in the marine environment.

Chemiluminescence detection of MDMA in street drug samples using tris (2,2'-bipyridine) ruthenium (III)

Tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(II) chemiluminescence was investigated for the detection of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and several related compounds in street drug samples. Optimization using flow injection analysis showed that the selectivity of the reagent can be targeted towards the detection of secondary amines by altering the pH of the reaction environment. The greater selectivity of this mode of detection, compared to UV-absorbance, reduces the probability of false positive results from interfering compounds. The detection limit for MDMA under these conditions was 0.48 μM. A HPLC method incorporating post-column tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(II) chemiluminescence detection was applied to the determination of MDMA in five street drug samples. The results obtained were in good agreement with quantification performed using traditional UV-absorbance detection, which demonstrates the viability of this method for confirmatory analysis of drug samples. This is the first report of tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(II) chemiluminescence for the detection of MDMA and related amphetamine derivatives.

Detection of Arabidopsis thaliana AtRAD1 cDNA variants and assessment of function by expression in a yeast rad1 mutant

The Saccharomyces cerevisiae RAD1 and human XPF genes encode a subunit of a nucleotide excision repair endonuclease that also is implicated in some forms of homologous recombination. An Arabidopsis thaliana gene (AtRAD1) encoding the orthologous plant protein has been identified recently. Here we report the isolation of three structurally distinct AtRAD1 cDNAs from A. thaliana leaf tissue RNA. One of the isolates (AtRAD1-1) corresponds to the cDNA previously shown to encode the full-length AtRad1 protein, whereas the other two (AtRAD1-2, AtRAD1-3) differ slightly in size due to variations at the 5′ end of exon 6 or the 3′ end of exon 7, respectively. The sequence differences argue that these cDNAs were probably templated by mRNAs generated via alternative splicing. Diagnostic polymerase chain reaction pointed to the presence of the AtRAD1-1 and AtRAD1-2 but not AtRAD1-3 transcripts in bud and root tissue, and to a fourth transcript (AtRAD1-4), having both alterations identified in AtRAD1-2 and AtRAD1-3, in root tissue. However, the low frequency of detection of AtRAD1-3 and AtRAD1-4 makes the significance of these tissue-specific patterns unclear. The predicted AtRad1-2, AtRad1-3 and AtRad1-4 proteins lack part of the region likely required for endonuclease complex formation. Expression of AtRAD1-2 and AtRAD1-3 in a yeast rad1 mutant did not complement the sensitivity to ultraviolet radiation or the recombination defect associated with the rad1 mutation. These results suggest that alternative splicing may modulate the levels of functional AtRad1 protein.

Comparison of soluble manganese(IV) and acidic potassium permanganate chemiluminescence detection using flow injection and sequential injection analysis for the determination of ascorbic acid in vitamin C tablets

The limits of detection (3s) for ascorbic acid were 5×10⁻⁸ M with acidic potassium permanganate using both flow injection analysis (FIA) and sequential injection analysis (SIA) whereas the soluble manganese(IV) afforded 1×10⁻⁸ M and 5×10⁻⁹ M for FIA and SIA, respectively. Determinations of ascorbic acid in Vitamin C tablets were achieved with minimal sample pretreatment using a standard additions calibration and gave good agreement with those of iodimetric titration.

Determination of selected neurotransmitter metabolites using monolithic column chromatography coupled with chemiluminescence detection

The oxidation of selected clinically important neurotransmitter metabolites with acidic potassium permanganate in the presence of polyphosphates evokes chemiluminescence of sufficient intensity to enable the sensitive determination of these species. Limits of detection for 5-hydroxyindole-3-acetic acid (5-HIAA), vanilmandelic acid (VMA; α,4-dihydroxy-3-methoxybenzeneacetic acid), 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol (MHPG), homovanillic acid (HVA, 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylacetic acid) and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC) were between 5 × 10⁻⁹ and 4 × 10⁻⁸ M, using flow-injection analysis methodology. In addition, we demonstrate the rapid determination of homovanillic acid and 5-hydroxyindole-3-acetic acid in human urine – without the need for extraction procedures – using monolithic column chromatography with chemiluminescence detection.

Determination of psilocin and psilocybin using flow injection analysis with acidic potassium permanganate and tris(2,2’-bipyridyl) ruthenium(II) chemiluminescence detection respectively

A simple, rapid and sensitive method for the determination of psilocin and psilocybin is described. This is the first report on the determination of psilocin and psilocybin using flow injection analysis with acidic potassium permanganate and tris(2,2′-bipyridyl)ruthenium(II) chemiluminescence. The limits of detection (signal-to-noise ratio = 3) are 9 × 10⁻¹⁰ M and 3 × 10⁻¹⁰ M for psilocin and psilocybin, respectively.A concise synthetic route for psilocin in three steps from readily available starting materials is also described. The structures were elucidated on the basis of spectroscopic data.

A complex relationship among chemical concentration, detection threshold and suprathreshold intensity of bitter compounds

Detection thresholds and psychophysical curves were established for caffeine, quinine-HCl (QHCl), and propylthiouracil (PROP) in a sample of 33 subjects (28 female mean age 24 ± 4). The mean detection threshold (±standard error) for caffeine, QHCl, and PROP was 1.2 ± 0.12, 0.0083 ± 0.001, and 0.088 ± 0.07 mM, respectively. Pearson product–moment analysis revealed no significant correlations between detection thresholds of the compounds. Psychophysical curves were constructed for each bitter compound over 6 concentrations. There were significant correlations between incremental points of the individual psychophysical curves for QHCl and PROP. Regarding caffeine, there was a specific concentration (6 mM) below and above which the incremental steps in bitterness were correlated. Between compounds, analysis of psychophysical curves revealed no correlations with PROP, but there were significant correlations between the bitterness of caffeine and QHCl at higher concentrations on the psychophysical curve (P < 0.05). Correlation analysis of detection threshold and suprathreshold intensity within a compound revealed a significant correlation between PROP threshold and suprathreshold intensity (r = 0.46–0.4, P < 0.05), a significant negative correlation for QHCl (r = –0.33 to –0.4, P < 0.05), and no correlation for caffeine. The results suggest a complex relationship between chemical concentration, detection threshold, and suprathreshold intensity.