Edge patterns in aquatic invertebrates explained by predictive models

Predictive frameworks for understanding and describing how animals respond to habitat fragmentation, particularly across edges, have been largely restricted to terrestrial systems. Abundances of zooplankton and meiofauna were measured across seagrasssand edges and the patterns compared with predictive models of edge effects. Artificial seagrass patches were placed on bare sand, and zooplankton and meiofauna were sampled with tube traps at five positions (from patch edges: 12, 60 and 130 cm into seagrass; and 12 and 60 cm onto sand). Position effects consisted of the following three general patterns: (1) increases in abundance around the seagrasssand edge (total abundance and cumaceans); (2) declining abundance from seagrass onto sand (calanoid copepods, harpacticoid copepods and amphipods); and (3) increasing abundance from seagrass onto sand (crustacean nauplii and bivalve larvae). The first two patterns are consistent with resource-distribution models, either as higher resources at the confluence of adjacent habitats or supplementation of resources from high-quality to low-quality habitat. The third pattern is consistent with reductions in zooplankton abundance as a consequence of predation or attenuation of currents by seagrass. The results show that predictive models of edge effects can apply to aquatic animals and that edges are important in structuring zooplankton and meiofauna assemblages in seagrass. © 2010 CSIRO.

In-situ evaluation of predictive models for H₂S gas emission and the performance of optimal dosage of suppressing chemicals in a laboratory-scale sewer

This in-situ analysis quantifies hydrogen sulfide gas emission from a simulated sewerage system, with varying slopes between 0.5% and 1.5%, under the dosing of certain mitigating chemicals. A portable H₂S gas detector (OdaLog) was employed to record the gaseous phase concentration of hydrogen sulfide. The investigation was comprised of three interrelated phases. In the first stage, precision of four prediction models for H₂S gas emission from a laboratory-synthesized wastewater was assessed. It was found that the model suggested by Lahav fitted the experimental results accurately. Second phase explorations included jar tests to obtain the optimal dosage of four hydrogen sulfide suppressing chemicals, being Mg(OH)₂, NaOH, Ca(NO₃)₂, and FeCl₂. In the third stage, the optimal dosage of chemicals was introduced into the experimental sewerage system, with the OdaLog continuously monitoring the H₂S gas emission. According to a baseline (experiments with no chemical addition), it was found that NaOH and Mg(OH)₂ performed very good in mitigating the release of H₂S gas, while Ca(NO₃)₂ was not effective most probably due to the absence of biological activity. Furthermore, interpretation of OdaLog data through the optimum emission prediction model revealed that higher sewer slope led to more emission.

Guidelines for developing and reporting machine learning predictive models in biomedical research : a multidisciplinary view

BACKGROUND: As more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs.

OBJECTIVE: To attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence.

METHODS: A multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method.

RESULTS: The process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models.

CONCLUSIONS: A set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community.

Evaluation of the robustness of predictive yield models based on catchment characteristics using GIS for reservoir fisheries in Sri Lanka

Land-use patterns in the catchment areas of Sri Lankan reservoirs, which were quantified using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), were used to develop quantitative models for yield prediction. The validity of these models was evaluated through the application to five reservoirs that were not used in the development of the models, and by comparing with the actual fish yield data of these reservoirs collected by an independent body. The robustness of the predictive models developed was tested by principal component analysis (PCA) on limnological characteristics, land-use patterns of the catchments and fish yields. The predicted fish yields in five Sri Lankan reservoirs, using the empirical models based on the ratios of forest cover and/or shrub cover to reservoir capacity or reservoir area were in close agreement with the observed fish yields. The scores of PCA ordination of productivity-related limnological parameters and those of land-use patterns were linearly related to fish yields. The relationship between the PCA scores of limnological characteristics and land-use types had the appropriate algebraic form, which substantiates the influence of the limnological factors and land-use types on reservoir fish yields. It is suggested that the relatively high predictive power of the models developed on the basis of GIS methodologies can be used for more accurate assessment of reservoir fisheries. The study supports the importance and the need for an integrated management strategy for the whole watershed to enhance fish yields.

Fuzzy rule base assessment models : theoretical analyses and a case study

An assessment model is usually a mathematical model that produces a measuring index, in the form of a numerical score to a situation/object, with respect to the subject of measure. To allow a valid and useful comparison among various situations/objects according to their associated numerical scores to be made, two important properties, i.e., the monotone output property and output resolution properties, are essential in fuzzy inference-based assessment problems. In this paper, the conditions for a fuzzy assessment model to fulfill the monotone output property is investigated using a derivative approach. A guideline on how the input membership functions should be tuned is also provided. Besides, the output resolution property is defined as the derivative of the output of the assessment model with respect to the input, whereby the derivative should be greater than a minimum resolution. Based on the derivative, improvements to the output resolution property by refining the fuzzy production rules are suggested. A case study on the Bowles fuzzy RPN model to demonstrate the effectiveness of the properties is also included.

Experimentation and self learning in continuous database marketing

We present a method for continuous database marketing that identifies target customers for a number of marketing offers using predictive models. The algorithm then selects the appropriate offer for the customer. Experimental design principles are encapsulated to capture more information that will be used to monitor and refine the predictive models. The updated predictive models are then used for the next round of marketing offers.

Conservation ecology and breeding biology of the white-browed treecreeper, Climacteris affinis

The White-browed Treecreeper Climacteris affinis is one of many woodland-dependent birds that are at risk from the encroachment of human-dominated land-uses into natural landscapes. The White-browed Treecreeper inhabits semi-arid woodlands in north-west Victoria, Australia, a vegetation community that has undergone extreme modification in the last century due to the expansion of agriculture in the region. Extant woodlands represent only 10% of the original woodland cover in the region, and are highly fragmented and disturbed in many districts. Thus, the survival of the White-browed Treecreeper may depend on active management. However, current knowledge of the ecology and biology of this species is virtually non-existent, and inadequate for informed and effective conservation actions. The aim of this thesis is to redress this situation and provide the ecological basis for sound conservation management of the species. The thesis consists of two parts: an investigation of habitat use at three spatial scales and a study of the social organization, nesting requirements, breeding behaviour and reproductive success of a population of White-browed Treecreepers. Fifty-six patches of remnant woodland in north-west Victoria were surveyed to determine the factors affecting the occurrence of the White-browed Treecreeper at the regional scale. It was detected in 16 patches, and was largely confined to two core districts - Yarrara and, Wyperfeld (Pine Plains). The floristic composition of the dominant tree species was an important determinant of patch occupancy, with the results providing quantitative support for the previously suspected affinity for Belah Casuarina pauper and Slender Cypress-pine Callitris gracilis — Buloke Allocasuarina luehmannii woodlands. However, the absence of the White-browed Treecreeper from several districts was due to factors other than a lack of appropriate habitat. Demographic isolation - the distance from the focal patch to the nearest population of the White-browed Treecreeper - was the most important variable in explaining variation in patch occupancy. Patches isolated from other treecreeper populations by more than 8.3 km in landscapes of non-preferred native vegetation, and 3 km in agricultural landscapes, were unlikely to support the White-browed Treecreeper. The impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on the capacity of individuals to move through the landscape (i.e. functional connectivity) is considered in relation to disruption to dispersal and migration, and the potential collapse of local metapopulations. Habitat use was then examined in a network of patches and linear strips of Belah woodland embedded in a predominantly cultivated landscape. A minimum area of 18.5 ha of Belah woodland was identified as the most important criterion for patch occupancy at the local scale. This landscape appeared to be permeable to movement by the White-browed Treecreeper, facilitated by the extensive network of linear habitat, and clusters of small to medium fragments. The third scale of habitat use investigated the frequency of use of 1-ha plots within tracts of occupied woodland. It is important to discriminate between habitat traits that operate at the population level, and those that act as proximate cues for habitat selection by individuals. Woodlands that have high tree density, extensive cover of low-stature shrubs, abundant lichen, a complex vertical structure, and relatively low cover of grass and herbs are likely to support larger populations of the White-browed Treecreeper. However, individuals appeared to be using tree dominance (positive) and tall shrub cover (negative) as proximate environmental stimuli for habitat selectivity. A relatively high cover of ground lichen, which probably reflects a ground layer with low disturbance and high structural complexity, was also a reliable indicator of habitat use. Predictive models were developed which could be used to plan vegetation management to enhance habitat for the White-browed Treecreeper. The results of the regional, landscape and patch-scale investigations emphasise that factors operating at multiple spatial scales influence the suitability of remnant vegetation as habitat for the White-browed Treecreeper. The White-browed Treecreeper is typical of many small Australian passerines in that it has high annual survival, small clutches, a long breeding season, multiple broods and relatively low reproductive rates. Reproductive effort is adjusted through the number of clutches laid rather than clutch size. They occupy relatively large, all-purpose territories throughout the year. However, unlike many group territorial birds, territory size was not related to the number of occupants. The White-browed Treecreeper nests in tree hollows. They select hollows with a southerly orientation where possible, and prefer hollows that were higher from the ground. At Yarrara, there was considerable spatial variation in hollow abundance that, in concert with territorial constraints, restricted the actual availability of hollows to less than the absolute abundance of hollows. Thus, the availability of suitable hollows may limit reproductive productivity in some territories, although the magnitude of this constraint on overall population growth is predicted to be small. However, lack of recruitment of hollow-bearing trees would increase the potential for hollow availability to limit population growth. This prospect is particularly relevant in grazed remnants and those outside the reserve system. Facultative cooperative breeding was confirmed, with groups formed through male philopatry. Consequently, natal dispersal is female-biased, although there was no skew in the sex ratio of the fledglings or the general adult population. Helpers were observed performing all activities associated with parenting except copulation and brooding. Cooperatively breeding groups enjoyed higher fledgling productivity than simple pairs, after statistically accounting for territory and parental quality. However, the difference reflected increased productivity in the 1999-breeding season only, when climatic conditions were more favourable than in 1998. Breeding commenced earlier in 1999, and all breeding units were more likely to attempt a second brood. However, only breeders with helpers were successful in fledging second brood young, and it was this difference that accounted for the overall discrepancy in productivity. The key mechanism for increased success in cooperative groups was a reduction hi the interval between first and second broods, facilitated by compensatory reductions in the level of care to the first brood. Thus, females with helpers probably achieved significant energetic savings during this period, which enabled them to re-lay sooner. Furthermore, they were able to recommence nesting when the fledglings from the first brood were younger because there were more adults to feed the dependent juveniles. The current utility, and possible evolutionary pathways, of cooperative breeding is examined from the perspective of both breeders and helpers. Breeders benefit through enhanced fledgling productivity in good breeding conditions and a reduction in the burden of parental care, which may impart significant energetic savings. Further, breeders may facilitate philopatry as a means for ensuring a minimum level of reproductive success. Helpers benefit through an increase in their inclusive fitness in the absence of opportunities for independent breeding (i.e. ecological constraints) and access to breeding vacancies in the natal or adjacent territories (i.e. benefits of philopatry). However, the majority of breeding unit-years comprised unassisted breeders, which suggests that pairs are selectively favoured under certain environmental or demographic conditions.

High-performance composite from epoxy and glass fibers : morphology, mechanical, dynamic mechanical, and thermal analysis

Diglycidyl ether of bisphenol-A type epoxy resin cured with diamino diphenyl sulfone was used as the matrix for fiber-reinforced composites to get improved mechanical and thermal properties for the resulting composites. E-glass fiber was used for fiber reinforcement. The morphology, tensile, flexural, impact, dynamic mechanical, and thermal properties of the composites were analyzed. The tensile, flexural, and impact properties showed dramatic improvement with the addition of glass fibers. Dynamic mechanical analysis was performed to obtain the Tg of the cured matrix as well as the composites. The improved thermal stability of the composites was clear from the thermogravimetric analysis. Scanning electron micrographs were taken to understand the interfacial adhesion between the fiber and the matrix. The values of mechanical properties were compared with modified epoxy resin composite system. Predictive models were applied using various equations to compare the mechanical data obtained theoretically and experimentally.

Comparing towed and baited underwater video techniques for assessing temperate marine fishes

Accurate estimates of fish species occurrence are important to any species’ assessments and distribution model. With increasing emphasis on nondestructive sampling, underwater video techniques are commonly used without a thorough understanding of their advantages and disadvantages. This study compared data collected from baited remote underwater stereo-video systems (stereo BRUVS) and towed-video systems to determine; (1) the differences between these video techniques in terms of fish assemblages, functional groups (i.e. pelagic carnivore, epibenthic carnivore/omnivore or herbivore) and observability (i.e. conspicuous or cryptic), and (2) what impact do these two techniques have on the interpretation of spatially-explicit, predictive models. We found stereo BRUVS and towedvideo techniques recorded very different assemblages, functional groups and observability categories across structurally complex benthic biological habitats (i.e. macroalgae dominated habitats). However, as the habitat complexity became less (e.g. seagrass and areas with no visible macro-biota) both techniques appeared to provide similar fish assemblage information. We also found considerable differences in the predicted extents of habitat suitability between the two video techniques.

A performance model of speculative prefetching in distributed information systems

Previous studies in speculative prefetching focus on building and evaluating access models for the purpose of access prediction. This paper investigates a complementary area which has been largely ignored, that of performance modelling. We use improvement in access time as the performance metric, for which we derive a formula in terms of resource parameters (time available and time required for prefetching) and speculative parameters (probabilities for next access). The performance maximization problem is expressed as a stretch knapsack problem. We develop an algorithm to maximize the improvement in access time by solving the stretch knapsack problem, using theoretically proven apparatus to reduce the search space. Integration between speculative prefetching and caching is also investigated, albeit under the assumption of equal item sizes.

An investigation into the use of physical modelling for the prediction of various feature types visible from different view points

This paper describes a general purpose flexible technique which uses physical modelling techniques for determining the features of a 3D object that are visible from any predefined view. Physical modelling techniques are used to determine which of many different types of features are visible from a complete set of viewpoints. The power of this technique lies in its ability to detect and parameterise object features, regardless of object complexity. Raytracing is used to simulate the physical process by which object features are visible so that surface properties (eg specularity, transparency) as well as object boundaries can be used in the recognition process. Using this technique occluding and non-occluding edge based features are extracted using image processing techniques and then parameterised. Features caused by specularity are also extracted and qualitative descriptions for these are defined.

Effects of time since fire on birds : how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (>20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (<5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (>20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.

Corner inlet and Nooramunga habitat mapping project

Deakin University and the University of Tasmania were commissioned by Parks Victoria (PV) to create two updated habitat maps for areas within the Corner Inlet and Nooramunga Marine and Coastal Park and Ramsar area. The team obtained a ground-truth data set using in situ video and still photographs. This dataset was used to develop and assess predictive models of benthic marine habitat distributions incorporating data from both ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite) imagery atmospherically corrected by CSIRO and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) bathymetry. This report describes the results of the mapping effort as well as the methodology used to produce these habitat maps.

Overall accuracies of habitat classifications were good, returning overall accuracies >73 % and kappa values > 0.62 for both study localities. Habitats predicted with highest accuracies included Zosteraceae in Nooramunga (91 %), reef in Corner Inlet (80 %), and bare sediment (no-visible macrobiota/no-visible seagrass classes; both > 76 %). The majority of classification errors were due to the misclassification of areas of sparse seagrass as bare sediment. For the Corner Inlet study locality the no-visible macrobiota (10,698 ha), Posidonia (4,608 ha) and Zosteraceae (4,229 ha) habitat classes covered the most area. In Nooramunga no-visible seagrass (5,538 ha), Zosteraceae (4,060 ha) and wet saltmarsh (1,562 ha) habitat classes were most dominant.

In addition to the commissioned work preliminary change detection analyses were undertaken as part of this project. These analyses indicated shifts in habitat extents in both study localities since the late 1990s/2000. In particular, a post-classification analysis highlighted that there were considerable increases in seagrass habitat (primarily Zosteraceae) throughout the littoral zones and river/creek mouths of both study localities. Further, the numerous channel systems remained stable and were free of seagrass at both times. A substantial net loss of Posidonia in the Corner Inlet locality is likely but requires further investigation due to potential misclassifications between habitats in both the 1998 map (Roob et al. 1998) and the current mapping. While the unsupervised Independent Components Analysis (ICA) change detection technique indicated some changes in habitat extent and distribution, considerable areas of habitat change observed in the post-classification approach are questionable, and may reflect misclassifications rather than real change. A particular example of this is an apparent large decrease in Zosteraceae and increase in Posidonia being related to the classification of Posidonia beds as Zosteraceae in the 1998 mapping. Despite this, we believe that changes indicated by both the ICA and post-classification approaches have a high likelihood of being ‘actual’ change. A pattern of gains and losses of Zosteraceae in the region north of Stockyard channel is an example of this. Further analyses and refinements of approaches in change detection analyses such as would improve confidence in the location and extent of habitat changes over this time period.

This work has been successful in providing new baseline maps using a repeatable method meaning that any future changes in intertidal and shallow water marine habitats may be assessed in a consistent way with quantitative error assessments. In wider use, these maps should also allow improved conservation planning, advance fisheries and catchment management, and progress infrastructure planning to limit impacts on the Inlet environment.

Satellite tracking large numbers of individuals to infer population level dispersal and core areas for the protection of an endangered species

Aim: Tracking the dispersal patterns and habitat use of migratory species is necessary to delineate optimal areas for protection, with large sample sizes being more representative of the population. Here, we examine the dispersal patterns of a key Mediterranean loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) breeding population to identify priority foraging sites for protection. Location: Zakynthos Island, Greece and the wider Mediterranean. Method: We examined the dispersal patterns and foraging sites of 75 adult loggerheads (n = 38 males and 37 females) tracked from the breeding area of Zakynthos Island (Greece) from 2004 to 2011. We then combined our data with published sea turtle literature to identify key foraging sites for protection. Results: While both males and females exhibited similar dispersal patterns, about 25% males remained < 100 km of Zakynthos, whereas all females (except one) migrated > 200 km. Integration of our data with the wider literature isolated 10 core sites in proximity to existing protected areas, which could potentially protect 64% of the Zakynthos population, while five sites support individuals from at least 10 other loggerhead breeding populations. Main conclusions: Due to the widespread availability of neritic foraging grounds across the Mediterranean, sea turtles from Zakynthos exhibit disparate dispersal patterns. However, protecting only a few objectively defined important sites can encompass a large proportion of the foraging areas used and hence have considerable conservation benefit.