Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location Cloud forests in Mexico.
Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five.
Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas.
Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses.

Distribution of disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Wilsons Promontory National Park and potential for further impact

The extent of disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi was determined within vegetation communities of Wilsons Promontory National Park. Aerial survey of visible symptoms by helicopter and systematic survey along all roads and tracks followed by isolation of the pathogen from soil found that in total 551 ha of moist foothill forest, heath and heathy woodland broad vegetation types were affected by the disease. P. cinnamomi was isolated from 93% of sites that, based on the presence of visible symptoms, were expected to yield the pathogen. The species-rich heathy woodland was most affected with 6.5% of the total area of this type showing symptoms of disease. The size of infestation ranged from 229 ha on the slopes of the Vereker Range in the north to less than 1 ha along the Sealers Cove Walking Track in the south. The potential for disease to spread into uninfested vegetation was estimated for all sites from which P. cinnamomi was isolated. Eight of 18 sites where evidence of disease was found were estimated to have a high potential for further disease spread. This study indicates that even though the disease may be waning in some areas of the Park, the pathogen is active and easily isolated from others and provides a continuing threat to susceptible vegetation communities.

Analysis of the potential and problems of new institutional economics for third world development

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to provide a critical evaluation of the potential of new institutional economics (NIE) in third world development.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews various theories under NIE from both conceptual and empirical perspectives. It then reviews the various definitions of institutions and show that institutions are essential to overcome problems of information and uncertainty.

Findings – The review finds that weak institutions can undermine development and hence governments in developing countries should strengthen their institutions to provide greater scope for efficient functioning of markets. Where the market does not work owing to high transactions costs, traditional institutions of collective action and group decision making can work and hence need to be recognised.

Research limitations/implications – The major implications of the paper is that in developing countries, a clear understanding of various institutions such as user groups, inter-linked credit markets, rotational irrigation etc. is needed before they are replaced or modified by other institutions. The main limitations of NIE are that there can be capture by elites of various institutional innovations in rural areas, and that it does not explicitly consider income distribution and uncertainty which are glossed over and hence remain areas for future research.

Originality/value – This paper critically reviews the various institutional environments that developing countries face in addressing development issues.

Novel data management algorithms in peer-to-peer content distribution networks

The peer-to-peer content distribution network (PCDN) is a hot topic recently, and it has a huge potential for massive data intensive applications on the Internet. One of the challenges in PCDN is routing for data sources and data deliveries. In this paper, we studied a type of network model which is formed by dynamic autonomy area, structured source servers and proxy servers. Based on this network model, we proposed a number of algorithms to address the routing and data delivery issues. According to the highly dynamics of the autonomy area, we established dynamic tree structure proliferation system routing, proxy routing and resource searching algorithms. The simulations results showed that the performance of the proposed network model and the algorithms are stable.

Estimating intergenerational distribution preferences

Resource management decisions influence not only the output of the economy but also the distribution of utility between groups within the community. The theory of cost benefit analysis provides a means of incorporating distributional changes into the decision making calculus through the application of distributional or welfare weights. However, this practice has not been widely adopted in part due to difficulties in the estimation of distributional weights. This paper addresses this problem by using the stated preference method of choice modelling to estimate distributional weights suitable for inclusion in a cost benefit analysis framework. The findings of a choice modelling experiment designed to estimate community preferences with respect to intergenerational utility distribution illustrate the potential of this method in addressing distributional issues.

Clincial pharmacogenetics and potential application in personalized medicine

The current `fixed-dosage strategy' approach to medicine, means there is much inter-individual variation in drug response. Pharmacogenetics is the study of how inter-individual variations in the DNA sequence of specific genes affect drug responses. This article will highlight current  pharmacogenetic knowledge on important drug metabolizing enzymes, drug transporters and drug targets to understand interindividual variability in drug clearance and responses in clinical practice and potential use in  personalized medicine. Polymorphisms in the cytochrome P450 (CYP) family may have had the most impact on the fate of pharmaceutical drugs. CYP2D6, CYP2C19 and CYP2C9 gene polymorphisms and gene duplications account for the most frequent variations in phase I metabolism of drugs since nearly 80% of drugs in use today are metabolised by these enzymes. Approximately 5% of Europeans and 1% of Asians lack CYP2D6 activity, and these  individuals are known as poor metabolizers. CYP2C9 is another clinically significant drug metabolising enzyme that demonstrates genetic variants. Studies into CYP2C9 polymorphism have highlighted the importance of the CYP2C9*2 and CYP2C9*3 alleles. Extensive polymorphism also occurs in a majority of Phase II drug metabolizing enzymes. One of the most important polymorphisms is thiopurine S-methyl transferases (TPMT) that catalyzes the S-methylation of thiopurine drugs. With respect to drug transport  polymorphism, the most extensively studied drug transporter is  P-glycoprotein (P-gp/MDR1), but the current data on the clinical impact is limited. Polymorphisms in drug transporters may change drug's distribution, excretion and response. Recent advances in molecular research have revealed many of the genes that encode drug targets demonstrate genetic polymorphism. These variations, in many cases, have altered the targets sensitivity to the specific drug molecule and thus have a profound effect on drug efficacy and toxicity. For example, the β2-adrenoreceptor, which is encoded by the ADRB2 gene, illustrates a clinically significant genetic variation in drug targets. The variable number tandem repeat polymorphisms in serotonin transporter (SERT/SLC6A4) gene are associated with response to antidepressants. The distribution of the common variant alleles of genes that encode drug metabolizing enzymes, drug transporters and drug targets has been found to vary among different populations. The promise of pharmacogenetics lies in its potential to identify the right drug at the right dose for the right individual. Drugs with a narrow therapeutic index are thought to benefit more from pharmacogenetic studies. For example, warfarin serves as a good practical example of how pharmacogenetics can be utilized prior to commencement of therapy in order to achieve maximum efficacy and minimum toxicity. As such, pharmacogenetics has the potential to achieve optimal quality use of medicines, and to improve the efficacy and safety of both prospective and licensed drugs.

Use of high resolution digital multi-spectral imagery to assess the distribution of disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi on heathland at Anglesea, Victoria

Disease caused by the soilborne plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi causes long-term floristic and structural changes in native vegetation communities in Australia. Key components of the management of this disease are to know where it occurs and the rate at which it spreads. The distribution of P. cinnamomi has generally been assessed as locality points of infestation and mapping the extent of diseased vegetation in any area is difficult and costly. This study was undertaken in P. cinnamomi-infested heathland communities in southern Victoria, Australia, where the symptoms of P. cinnamomi arise as a mosaic within healthy vegetation. We investigated the potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of mapping and monitoring vegetation affected by P. cinnamomi using digital multi-spectral imaging. This technique was developed for the purposes of monitoring vegetation and provides a single, seamless ortho-rectified digital image over the total area of interest. It is used to spatially quantify small differences in the characteristics of vegetation. In this study, the symptoms of disease caused by P. cinnamomi infestation were related to differences in the imagery and were used to map areas of infestation. Comparison of the digital multi-spectral imaging indications with on-ground observations gave moderate accuracy between the datasets (κ = 0.49) for disease and healthy indications. This study demonstrates the ability of the technique to determine disease extent over broad areas in native vegetation and provides a non-invasive, cost effective tool for management.

Annual variation in the distribution of summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine area, Australia, and its effect on the composition and structure of alpine vegetation

Australian alpine ecosystems are expected to diminish in extent as global warming intensifies. Alpine vegetation patterns are influenced by the duration of snow cover including the presence of snowdrifts in summer, but there is little quantitative information on landscape-scale relationships between vegetation patterns and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts in the Australian alps. We mapped annual changes in summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine region, Australia, from Landsat TM images and modelled the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts from long-term records (1954–2003) of winter snow depth. We then compared vegetation composition and structure among four classes that differed in the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. We found a curvilinear relationship between annual winter snow depth and the area occupied by persistent snowdrifts in the following summer (r²=0.9756). Only 21 ha (0.42% of study area) was predicted to have supported summer snowdrifts in 80% of the past 50 years, while 440 ha supported persistent summer snow in 10% of years. Mean cover and species richness of vascular plants declined significantly, and species composition varied significantly, as the frequency of summer snow persistence increased. Cushion plants and rushes were most abundant where summer snowdrifts occurred most frequently, and shrubs, grasses and sedges were most abundant in areas that did not support snowdrifts in summer. The results demonstrate strong regional relationships between vegetation composition and structure and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. Reductions in winter snow depth due to global warming are expected to lead to substantial reductions in the extent of persistent summer snowdrifts. As a consequence, shrubs, grasses and sedges are predicted to expand at the expense of cushion plants and rushes, reducing landscape vegetation diversity. Fortunately, few vascular plant species (e.g. Ranunculus niphophilus) appear to be totally restricted to areas where summer snow occurs most frequently. The results from this study highlight potential indicator species that could be monitored to assess the effects of global warming on Australian alpine environments.

A potential application of a piezoelectric atomiser for ophthalmic drug delivery

A liquid atomiser composed of a piezoelectric transducer and a metal plate with numerous micro-apertures is studied to identify the most influential factors on its atomising performance. The Taguchi method is employed in the experiment design and analysis of the study on how each factor acts in the atomising process. An optimal condition is determined for producing a stream of droplets. The study shows that the droplet size and the spraying velocity are suitable for ophthalmic drug delivery application, with an even distribution of the drug over most of the eyeball surface area due to the controllable cross-sectional area of the droplet stream. This greatly improves the treatment effectiveness and efficiency of eye therapy. Finally, a structure of the ophthalmic drug delivery system is proposed.

Potential for long-distance dispersal of Hormosira banksii

This study examined the potential for long-distance dispersal via drifting fertile fronds of the brown seaweed, Hormosira banksii. Results suggest that H. banksii may have dual dispersal capabilities (e.g. propagules and drifting fronds), which may maintain the broad distribution of this species.

An agent-based approach to value theory and wealth distribution in economics

Any attempt to model an economy requires foundational assumptions about the relations between prices, values and the distribution of wealth. These assumptions exert a profound influence over the results of any model. Unfortunately, there are few areas in economics as vexed as the theory of value. I argue in this paper that the fundamental problem with past theories of value is that it is simply not possible to model the determination of value, the formation of prices and the distribution of income in a real economy with analytic mathematical models. All such attempts leave out crucial processes or make unrealistic assumptions which significantly affect the results. There have been two primary approaches to the theory of value. The first, associated with classical economists such as Ricardo and Marx were substance theories of value, which view value as a substance inherent in an object and which is conserved in exchange. For Marxists, the value of a commodity derives solely from the value of the labour power used to produce it - and therefore any profit is due to the exploitation of the workers. The labour theory of value has been discredited because of its assumption that labour was the only ‘factor’ that contributed to the creation of value, and because of its fundamentally circular argument. Neoclassical theorists argued that price was identical with value and was determined purely by the interaction of supply and demand. Value then, was completely subjective. Returns to labour (wages) and capital (profits) were determined solely by their marginal contribution to production, so that each factor received its just reward by definition. Problems with the neoclassical approach include assumptions concerning representative agents, perfect competition, perfect and costless information and contract enforcement, complete markets for credit and risk, aggregate production functions and infinite, smooth substitution between factors, distribution according to marginal products, firms always on the production possibility frontier and firms’ pricing decisions, ignoring money and credit, and perfectly rational agents with infinite computational capacity. Two critical areas include firstly, the underappreciated Sonnenschein-Mantel- Debreu results which showed that the foundational assumptions of the Walrasian general-equilibrium model imply arbitrary excess demand functions and therefore arbitrary equilibrium price sets. Secondly, in real economies, there is no equilibrium, only continuous change. Equilibrium is never reached because of constant changes in preferences and tastes; technological and organisational innovations; discoveries of new resources and new markets; inaccurate and evolving expectations of businesses, consumers, governments and speculators; changing demand for credit; the entry and exit of firms; the birth, learning, and death of citizens; changes in laws and government policies; imperfect information; generalized increasing returns to scale; random acts of impulse; weather and climate events; changes in disease patterns, and so on. The problem is not the use of mathematical modelling, but the kind of mathematical modelling used. Agent-based models (ABMs), objectoriented programming and greatly increased computer power however, are opening up a new frontier. Here a dynamic bargaining ABM is outlined as a basis for an alternative theory of value. A large but finite number of heterogeneous commodities and agents with differing degrees of market power are set in a spatial network. Returns to buyers and sellers are decided at each step in the value chain, and in each factor market, through the process of bargaining. Market power and its potential abuse against the poor and vulnerable are fundamental to how the bargaining dynamics play out. Ethics therefore lie at the very heart of economic analysis, the determination of prices and the distribution of wealth. The neoclassicals are right then that price is the enumeration of value at a particular time and place, but wrong to downplay the critical roles of bargaining, power and ethics in determining those same prices.

Many routes lead to Rome : potential causes for the multi-route migration system of Red Knots, Calidris canutus islandica

Migrants, such as birds or representatives of other taxa, usually make use of several stopover sites to cover the distance between their site of origin and destination. Potentially, multiple routes exist, but often little is known about the causes and consequences of alternative migration routes. Apart from their geographical distribution, the suitability of potential sites might play an important role in the animals’ decisions for a particular itinerary. We used an optimal-migration model to test three nonmutually exclusive hypotheses leading to variations in the spring migration routes of a subspecies of Red Knot, Calidris canutus islandica, which migrates from wintering grounds in Western Europe to breeding grounds in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic: the breeding location hypothesis, the energy budget hypothesis, and the predation risk hypothesis. Varying only breeding location, the model predicted that birds breeding in the Canadian Arctic and on West Greenland stop over on Iceland, whereas birds breeding in East and Northeast Greenland migrate via northern Norway, a prediction that is supported by empirical findings. Energy budgets on stopover sites had a strong influence on the choice of route and staging times. Varying foraging-intensity and mass-dependent predation risk prompted the birds to use less risky sites, if possible. The effect of simultaneous changes in the energy budget and predation risk strongly depended on the site where these occurred. Our findings provide potential explanations for the observations that C. canutus islandica uses a diverse array of migration routes. Scrutinizing the three alternative driving forces for the choice of migratory routes awaits further, specific data collection in rapidly developing fields of research (e.g., predation risk assessment, GPS tracking). Generally, the type of modeling presented here may not only highlight alternative explanations, but also direct follow-up empirical research.