Nuclear weapons and deterrence

Discusses deterrence theory in relation to the nuclear armed nations. Suggests the world may turn from the deterrence of war using nuclear weapons to deterring countries and other oganisations from their acquisition.

Cleanup worker exposures to hazardous chemicals at a former nuclear weapons plant : piloting of an exposure surveillance system

Cleanup of former U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons production facilities involves potential exposures to various hazardous chemicals. We have collaboratively developed and piloted an exposure database and surveillance system for cleanup worker hazardous chemical exposure data with a cleanup contractor at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS). A unique system feature is the incorporation of a 34-category work task-coding scheme. This report presents an overview of the data captured by this system during development and piloting from March 1995 through August 1998. All air samples collected were entered into the system. Of the 859 breathing zone samples collected, 103 unique employees and 39 unique compounds were represented. Breathing zone exposure levels were usually low (86% of breathing zone samples were below analytical limits of detection). The use of respirators and other exposure controls was high (87 and 88%, respectively). Occasional high-level excursions did occur. Detailed quantitative summaries are provided for the six most monitored compounds: asbestos, beryllium, carbon tetrachloride, chromium, lead, and methylene chloride. Task and job title data were successfully collected for most samples, and showed specific cleanup activities by pipe fitters to be the most commonly represented in the database. Importantly, these results demonstrate the feasibility of the implementation of integrated exposure database and surveillance systems by practicing industrial hygienists employed in industry as well as the preventive potential and research uses of such systems. This exposure database and surveillance system--the central features of which are applicable in any industrial work setting--has enabled one of the first systematic quantitative characterizations of DOE cleanup worker exposures to hazardous chemicals.

Integrating workplace exposure databases for occupational medicine services and epidemiologic studies at a former nuclear weapons facility

We outline methods for integrating epidemiologic and industrial hygiene data systems for the purpose of exposure estimation, exposure surveillance, worker notification, and occupational medicine practice. We present examples of these methods from our work at the Rocky Flats Plant?a former nuclear weapons facility that fabricated plutonium triggers for nuclear weapons and is now being decontaminated and decommissioned. The weapons production processes exposed workers to plutonium, gamma photons, neutrons, beryllium, asbestos, and several hazardous chemical agents, including chlorinated hydrocarbons and heavy metals. We developed a job exposure matrix (JEM) for estimating exposures to 10 chemical agents in 20 buildings for 120 different job categories over a production history spanning 34 years. With the JEM, we estimated lifetime chemical exposures for about 12,000 of the 16,000 former production workers. We show how the JEM database is used to estimate cumulative exposures over different time periods for epidemiological studies and to provide notification and determine eligibility for a medical screening program developed for former workers. We designed an industrial hygiene data system for maintaining exposure data for current cleanup workers. We describe how this system can be used for exposure surveillance and linked with the JEM and databases on radiation doses to develop lifetime exposure histories and to determine appropriate medical monitoring tests for current cleanup workers. We also present time-line-based graphical methods for reviewing and correcting exposure estimates and reporting them to individual workers.

Nuclear rivalry in South Asia : an examination of post Cold War nuclear arms control initiatives

South Asia has emerged in the post-Cold War era as a region where ongoing nuclear rivalry has the potential to result in a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. The United States, together with the global community, is devoting considerable effort to prevent the further development and deployment of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan. This thesis analyses the underlying reasons for the ongoing nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan, details post-Cold War initiatives to end the nuclear rivalry and examines the prospect of United States efforts to cap, reduce and eventually eliminate the nuclear arsenals of India and Pakistan. The thesis finds that historical factors form the basis of the continuing hostility and animosity between the two nations. The two nations have been bitter rivals since the time of partition in 1947 and the disputed territory of Kashmir continues to be the manifestation of deep seated antagonism and hostility. Pakistan's geography leaves it extremely vulnerable to conventional Indian attack and possession of nuclear weapons is seen as a means to redress the imbalance. Strong domestic support together with fervent nationalism and international prestige will continue to drive the nuclear programs of each nation. This thesis concludes that the nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan is regional in nature and the end of the Cold War has done little to improve the prospects for nuclear disarmament in the region. United States led efforts have failed to persuade India or Pakistan to either accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or dismantle their nuclear weapons. The thesis also notes that the United States has failed to take account of China as a significant regional power and it's impact on the nuclear programs of India and Pakistan. A fresh approach (to include China) with more emphasis on regional dialogue is suggested as a first step to ending the nuclear rivalry.

Changing the guard? China and the nuclear nonproliferation regime

China's profile in the nuclear nonproliferation regime is changing at a crucial time. The regime is under considerable internal and external strain as a result of eroding international support and trends in vertical and horizontal nuclear proliferation. While China's nonproliferation agenda and approach differ in some respects from those of other key actors, the gap separating China from the established drivers of efforts to address horizontal nuclear proliferation in terms of the objectives, institutions, and approach of the nonproliferation regime is diminishing, and there is considerable potential for China to contribute to the capacity of the regime to adapt to changing requirements. The Asia-Pacific region features both as the area of greatest nonproliferation concern to China and as the area where proliferation concerns are most likely to spur the further qualitative development of Chinese nonproliferation policy.

Australia and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, 1945–1974

This volume in the Documents on Australian Foreign Policy series draws on unpublished records from the National Archives of Australia to document the negotiation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) from an Australian perspective. Commencing with early post-war efforts to control nuclear energy following the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the volumes traces Australia’s changing attitude to the issue of nuclear arms control and disarmament during the Cold War years of the 1950s and 1960s and its ambiguous approach to the acquisition of nuclear weapons in the subsequent negotiation of the NPT. Signed by the Gorton government in 1970 after considerable debate in the policymaking community in Canberra, the treaty was ratified by the Whitlam government in 1973 and has since formed a fundamental plank in Australian attitudes and policies towards international efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear weapons.

Rogue en vogue : North Korea and the war on terror

North Korea occupies a unique place in the thinking of US policymakers insofar as it represents both a direct, physical threat and also a reminder of the limits to American power. In numerous ways, North Korea is anathema to the US: it has fulsomely rejected America’s systems of political–economic organisation, its gradual rapproachment with South Korea threatens to undermine the rationale for America’s military presence in Northeast Asia, and its possession of nuclear weapons threatens the safety of the US and its allies. For these reasons, and despite its lowly standing in the international political system, North Korea continues to severely frustrate the superpower’s interests and thus represents an existential threat to the US.

People's war under modern conditions : an investigation into Chinese defence strategy, 1977-2049

This thesis is an investigation of the relevance of ‘people's war’ to contemporary Chinese defence policy. This loose concept has been eroded by 'modernity’, but a guerilla-based defence remains the essential theme. Prior to China's acquisition of nuclear weapons, people's war was the sole element of the state's deterrent policy, aiming to swamp an invader with China's numerical strength. In the 1980s and beyond people's war finds effectiveness through a combination of materiel of middle range technology and the traditional usage of massive manpower. People's war under modern conditions remains essentially defensive, but now incorporates 'active defence’ with accent on greater mobility. However, the central thesis of this work relates to how the traditional strategy may influence nuclear doctrine. This thesis proposes that China could abandon long-range ballistic missiles and adopt a new concept in nuclear strategy: that of, Guerilla Nuclear Warfare. Trained in guerilla tactics and equipped with battlefield nuclear weapons, this would represent the logical extension of China's people's war strategy to the new nuclear conditions associated with superpower research into space-based ballistic missile defences and which, in full deployment, could nullify a Chinese nuclear deterrent based only on 'mid-tech' delivery systems. Guerilla Nuclear Warfare, as a strategy, would involve the irregular use of locally held and controlled tactical nuclear weapons, but it would also be a method of circumventing the proposed Soviet missile defence shield by not challenging it. Guerilla Nuclear Warfare does not exist in the late 1980s, but evidence exists to suggest its development. It cannot yet be proven as the new direction but China's strategic circumstances add weight to available indications: unless the Strategic Defence programs of the established superpowers are arrested then it appears the sole option available to the Chinese for the maintenance of a nuclear deterrent in the early part of the 21st Century.

Drawing lines in the sea : the laws that govern traffic on the world’s oceans can be as difficult to shape as water

Since World War II, however, the term has increasingly referred to law enforcement operations, as a means to enforce trade sanctions, to prevent the movement of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), and particularly in the Caribbean Sea, to prevent the smuggling of illicit drugs. Such ambiguity should allow flexibility when deciding whom should be targeted, as well as allowing states with veto powers in the UN Security Council, which may legitimately ship nuclear weapons and materials, to avoid being targeted as long as they do not export WMDs to rogue states or non-state groups or individuals.2 The ISPS Code was created under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and is part of the 1974 Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS) concerning the safety of merchant ships.

Mark Oliphant’s adventures in atomic wonderland

Australian physicist Mark Oliphant came to hold two oppositional views, both pro and anti nuclear weapons research. This, together with the dimensions of his ‘larger than life’ personality, impacted on his scientific reputation in the fall-out of Australia’s ‘McCarthyism’. Despite his bullying the Americans into funding the A-Bomb project, the atomic juggernaut unleashed on the world caused Oliphant to rethink his role as a scientist. Oliphant clashed with American hegemony and the Menzies Government’s duplication of the ‘Reds under the Bed’ paranoia in Australia in the 1950s. His outspokenness on the danger of nuclear proliferation found him out of step with the changed political climate of the Cold War. Drawing on neglected archival material and using a Brechtian theatrical mode, my play Ion Man’s Adventures in Atomic Wonderland investigates the tragic dimensions of a man who never fully understood, as Thomas Kuhn explained (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions), that scientific research is determined as much by politics and ideology as by the desire to understand the world.

Development and piloting of an exposure database and surveillance system for DOE cleanup operations

An industrial hygiene exposure database and surveillance system was developed in partnership between National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-funded independent investigators and practicing industrial hygienists at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colo. RFETS is a former U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons plant that is now in cleanup phase. This project is presented as a case study in the development of an exposure database and surveillance system in terms that are generalizable to most other industries and work contexts. Steps include gaining organizational support; defining system purpose and scope; defining database elements and coding; planning practical and efficient analysis strategies; incorporating reporting capabilities; and anticipating communication strategies that maximize the probability that surveillance findings will feed back to preventive applications. For each of these topics, the authors describe both general considerations as well as the specific choices made for this system. An important feature of the system is a two-tier task-coding scheme comprising 33 categories of task groups. Examples of grouped analyses of exposure data captured during the system pilot period demonstrate applications to exposure control, medical surveillance, and other preventive measures. Reprinted by permission of the publisher.

Development of an exposure database and surveillance system for use by practicing OSH professionals

This report summarizes the development of an occupational exposure database and surveillance system for use by health and safety professionals at Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS), a former nuclear weapons production facility. The site itself is currently in the cleanup stage with work expected to continue into 2006. The system was developed with the intent of helping health and safety personnel not only to manage and analyze exposure monitoring data, but also to identify exposure determinants during the highly variable cleanup work. Utilizing a series of focused meetings with health and safety personnel from two of the major contractors at RFETS, core data elements were established. These data elements were selected based on their utility for analysis and identification of exposure determinants. A task-based coding scheme was employed to better define the highly variable work. The coding scheme consisted of a two-tiered hierarchical list with a total of 34 possible combinations of work type and task. The data elements were incorporated into a Microsoft Access database with built-in data entry features to both promote consistency and limit entry choices to enable stratified analyses. In designing the system, emphasis was placed on the ability of end users to perform complex analyses and multiparameter queries to identify trends in their exposure data. A very flexible and user-friendly report generator was built into the system. This report generator allowed users to perform multiparameter queries using an intuitive system with very little training. In addition, a number of automated graphical analyses were built into the system, including ex posure levels by any combination of building, date, employee, job classification, type of contaminant, work type or task, exposure levels over time, exposure levels relative to the permissible exposure limit (PELS), and distributions of exposure levels. Both of these interfaces, allow the user to ''drill down'' or gradually narrow query criteria to identify specific exposure determinants. A number of other industrial hygiene processes were automated by the use of this database. Exposure calculations were coded into the system to allow automatic calculation of time-weighted averages and sample volumes. In addition, a table containing all the PELs and other relevant occupational exposure limits was built into the system to allow automatic comparisons with the current standards. Finally, the process of generating reports for employee notification was automated. The implementation of this system demonstrates that an integrated database system can save time for a practicing hygienist as well as provide useful and more importantly, timely information to guide primary prevention efforts.

India-Pakistan relations: Legalization and agreement design

This article examines agreements between India and Pakistan to determine if there are design features that played a role in their success or failure. I show that India and Pakistan share attributes that are particularly well suited for a positive correlation between increased legalization and compliance, that the law plays a role in strengthening norms, and that legalizing commitments can create compliance constituencies that act as constraining influences on governments.

Characterisation of a synthesised fluorescent ligand (4-acridinol-1-sulphonic acid) using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy

The synthesis and complete characterisation of the fluorescent ligand, 4-acridinol-1-sulphonic acid (the acridine analogue of 8-quinolinol-5-sulfonic acid) is described. Using a judicious array of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy experiments, the structural elucidation and full assignment of all proton and carbon chemical shifts were afforded. The 4-acridinol-1-sulphonic acid was found to behave in a similar manner to 8-quinolinol-5-sulphonic acid, forming fluorescent complexes with magnesium(II) and zinc(II). The uncorrected emission maxima for the metal–acridinol complexes were found to be at around 620 nm compared to 505 nm for the respective quinolinol complexes. Unfortunately, preliminary spectrofluorimetric analytical figures of merit revealed that the detection limits of the new acridinol metal complexes were one and a half orders of magnitude poorer than those attained with the corresponding quinolinol ligand. However, in contrast to 8-quinolinol-5-sulphonic acid, the 4-acridinol-1-sulphonic acid ligand showed considerable selectivity for magnesium(II) and zinc(II) over aluminium(III).