Nuclear rivalry in South Asia : an examination of post Cold War nuclear arms control initiatives

South Asia has emerged in the post-Cold War era as a region where ongoing nuclear rivalry has the potential to result in a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. The United States, together with the global community, is devoting considerable effort to prevent the further development and deployment of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan. This thesis analyses the underlying reasons for the ongoing nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan, details post-Cold War initiatives to end the nuclear rivalry and examines the prospect of United States efforts to cap, reduce and eventually eliminate the nuclear arsenals of India and Pakistan. The thesis finds that historical factors form the basis of the continuing hostility and animosity between the two nations. The two nations have been bitter rivals since the time of partition in 1947 and the disputed territory of Kashmir continues to be the manifestation of deep seated antagonism and hostility. Pakistan's geography leaves it extremely vulnerable to conventional Indian attack and possession of nuclear weapons is seen as a means to redress the imbalance. Strong domestic support together with fervent nationalism and international prestige will continue to drive the nuclear programs of each nation. This thesis concludes that the nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan is regional in nature and the end of the Cold War has done little to improve the prospects for nuclear disarmament in the region. United States led efforts have failed to persuade India or Pakistan to either accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or dismantle their nuclear weapons. The thesis also notes that the United States has failed to take account of China as a significant regional power and it's impact on the nuclear programs of India and Pakistan. A fresh approach (to include China) with more emphasis on regional dialogue is suggested as a first step to ending the nuclear rivalry.