Futures in education

Futures education (FE) in a rapidly changing world is critical if young people are to be empowered to be proactive rather than reactive about the future. Research into young people's images and ideas of the future lead to the disturbing conclusion that, for many, the future is a depressing and fearful place where they feel hopeless and disempowered. On the other hand, as Richard Slaughter writes, 'young people are passionately interested in their own futures, and that of the society in which they live. They universally 'jump at the chance to study something with such intrinsic interest that also intersects with their own life interests in so many ways'. FE explicitly attempts to build on this interest and counter these fears by offering a profound and empowering set of learning strategies and ideas that can help people think and act critically and creatively about the future, without necessarily trying to predict it. Futures educators have, over the past decades, developed useful tools, ideas and a language for use with students of all ages to enable them to develop foresight literacy. Most of us tend to view the future as somehow beyond the present and rarely consider how decisions and choices made today profoundly affect not just one fixed future but any number of futures. The underlying goal of FE is to move from the idea of a single, pre-determined future to that of many possible futures, so that students begin to see that they can determine the future, that they need not be reactive and that they are not powerless. How does one do that? Ideas include, but are not limited to: timelines and Y-diagrams, futures wheels and mind maps, and 'Preferable, possible and probable' futures - a.k.a. the 3Ps. Current Australian curricula present education about the future in various implicit or explicit guises. A plethora of statements and curriculum outcomes mention the future, but essentially take 'it' for granted, and are uninformed by FE literature, language, ideas or tools. Science, the humanities and technology tend to be the main areas where such an implicit futures focus can be found. It also appears in documents about vocational education, civics and lifelong learning. Explicit FE is, as Beare and Slaughter put it, still the missing dimension in education. Explicit FE attempts to develop futures literacy, and draws widely upon futures studies literature for processes and content. FE provides such a wide range of ideas and tools that it can be incorporated into education in any number of ways. Programs in two very different schools, one primary and one secondary, are described in this article to provide examples of some of these ways. The first school, Kimberley Park State Primary School in Brisbane, operates with multi-age classrooms based on a 'thinking curriculum' developed around four organisers: change, perspectives, interconnectedness and sustainability. The second school, St John's Grammar School in Adelaide, is an independent school where FE operates as an integrated approach in Year Seven, as a separate one-semester subject in Year Nine and in separate subjects at other levels. Teachers both at Kimberley Park and St John's are very positive about FE. They say it promotes valuable and authentic learning, assists students to realise they have choices that matter and helps them see that the future need not be all doom and gloom. Because students are interested in the Big Questions, as one teacher put it, FE provides a perfect opportunity to address them, and to consider values that are fundamental for them and the future of the planet. Like any innovation, the long-term success of FE in schools depends on an embedding process so that the innovation does not depend on the enthusiasm and energy of a few individuals, only to disappear when they move on. It requires strong leadership, teacher knowledge, support and enthusiasm, and the support and understanding of the wider school community.

Untangling teachers’ images of their futures through their responses to the futures narratives of children

A significant amount of research has been undertaken exploring individuals’ images of a future. What often remains uninterrogated are the ways in which others’ respond to these images of a future, as they are articulated through narrative discourses. This paper, then, seeks to address this void through the presentation of research which considers the ways that teachers’ perceptions of "the future" are consolidated and challenged, as they work with children in a classroom setting.

Community factors influencing child and adolescent depression: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: Depression has been identified as a priority disorder among children and adolescents. While numerous reviews have examined the individual and family factors that contribute to child and adolescent depressive symptoms, less is known about community-level risk and protective factors. The aim of this study was to complete a systematic review to identify community risk and protective factors for depression in school-aged children (4-18 years). METHOD: The review adopted the procedures recommended by the Cochrane Non-Randomised Studies Methods Working Group and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify both observational and intervention study designs in both peer-reviewed and non-peer reviewed publications. RESULTS: A total of 21 studies met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen of the 18 community association studies and 2 of the 3 intervention studies reported one or more significant effects. Results indicated that community safety and community minority ethnicity and discrimination act as risk factors for depressive symptoms in school-aged children. Community disadvantage failed to achieve significance in meta-analytic results but findings suggest that the role of disadvantage may be influenced by other factors. Community connectedness was also not directly associated with depressive symptoms. CONCLUSION: There is evidence that a number of potentially modifiable community-level risk and protective factors influence child and adolescent depressive symptoms suggesting the importance of continuing research and intervention efforts at the community-level.

Futures for Australian curriculum studies: metaphors, genres and complicated conversations

My specific brief for the conference presentation on which this essay is based was to speak from the standpoint of a 'curriculum theorist'. However, I rarely use the terms 'curriculum theory' or 'curriculum theorising' other than in the company of US and Canadian colleagues. I prefer to speak of 'curriculum inquiry' or 'curriculum work' and I think of my work as a university teacher and researcher as being directed towards understanding curriculum. From this standpoint I interpret the theme of this Point and Counterpoint, 'Futures for Australian Curriculum', as a focus for speculation on the possible and desirable ways in which the arts of curriculum inquiry can be developed, tested and renewed. In other words, how can we sustain rigorous, vigorous and generative forms of curriculum work?
I will respond to this question by referring to three artefacts of Australian curriculum studies, the first two of which come from the Australian
Curriculum Studies Association's (ACSA) own material history; the third is (arguably) the major synoptic text of North American 'curriculum theory' published during the past decade. I will use these artefacts to illustrate three key issues concerning futures in curriculum inquiry, namely:
• the significance of metaphor;
• questions about genre and a renewed role for
the arts in our work;
• the idea of 'complicated conversation'.

Realized volatility and correlation in grain futures markets: testing for spillover effects

Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean, and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit properties consistent with the stylized facts observed in earlier studies. According to daily realized correlations and regression coefficients, the spot returns from the three grain futures are positively related. The realized estimates are then used to evaluate the degree of volatility transmission across grain futures prices. The impulse response analysis is conducted by fitting the vector autoregressive model to realized volatility and correlation estimates, using the bootstrap method for statistical inference. The results indicate that rich dynamic interactions exist among the volatilities and correlations across the grain futures markets.

Electrochemical methods applied in innovative corrosion inhibitor experiments : case studies

Electrochemical methods can be used more effectively if innovative experiments are designed and employed. This is especially true if a corrosion system to be tested involves inhibitors that could change the mechanism and pattern of corrosion in complex ways. This paper discusses corrosion inhibitor test design using several practical cases as examples. Particular attention is on difficult issues such as the simulation of localized corrosion phenomena and the influence of corrosion mechanism on inhibitor test results. ©2012 by NACE International.

Studies on the interaction between malanin and metal ions by fluorescence spectra methods

A novel protein with anti-tumor activities named malanin was isolated and purified from an endemic plant in Yunnan and Guangxi provinces. Effects of copper ion, silver ion and calcium ion on malanin and apo-malanin fluorescence spectra were studied. The results showed that copper ion leads to obvious statistic quenching of malanin and apo-malanin fluorescence. The dissociation constant of them from malanin and apo-malanin were about 2.37×10-4 and 2.66×10-4 mol·L-1, respectively. The silver ion did not have quenching action on malanin fluorescence, but it had statistic quenching effect on apo-malanin fluorescence, and its dissociation constant was 2.37×10-4 mol·L-1. Calcium ion did not have quenching action on malanin and apo-malanin fluorescence. It plays an important role in keeping malanin natural conformation.

Online versus postal data collection methods: an examination of issues and a comparison of results

New communications technologies often allow new ways of conducting market research. Determining the advantages of a new data collection method over established alternatives is difficult without thorough comparative testing. Computer-mediated marketing research is one such example of a new technology that has been enthusiastically embraced by marketing organisations and those servicing them. While researchers using the Internet (Net) and World Wide Web (Web) in its early years reported benefits such as high response levels, there is little in the way of comparative evidence to support any claimed advantages. This paper reports on the outcomes of three separate studies in which members (subscribers) of various organisations have been surveyed using both postal and online (email invitation and HTML Web form) data collection methods. The conclusion here is that it would be unwise to assume that one method can be directly substituted for another and obtain the same response. Differences in both the response pattern and demographic profile of respondents between the groups are consistently noticed, such as to warrant further examination of the methods used in online marketing research, and to suggest the need for further study.

Do logbooks influence recall of physical activity in validation studies?

Purpose: To examine whether physical activity logbooks influence estimates of validity of 7-d recall physical activity questionnaires. Methods: A  convenience sample of 551 adults aged 18–75 yr wore an MTI  accelerometer for seven consecutive days and were then randomly administered two of four 7-d recall physical activity questionnaires that varied in length and format (Active Australia Survey (AAS), long and short  International Physical Activity Questionnaires (IPAQ-L and IPAQ-S), and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)). A subsample of 75% concurrently completed a physical activity logbook. Results: Correlations (rho) between self-reported and measured duration of moderate- and vigorous-intensity activity and total activity were similar among participants who received a logbook and those who did not for each of the four instruments. There was also no interaction between assessment method (survey, accelerometer) and the assignment of a logbook. For the IPAQ-L, however, variability in the difference between accelerometer data and responses to the vigorous items was smaller among those assigned a logbook (F = 4.128, df = 260, P = 0.043). Overall, there were no differences in percent agreement or kappa for participation in sufficient levels of physical activity according to receipt of a logbook for any of the surveys. Conclusion: The process of self-monitoring through completion of a logbook does not appear to influence estimates of validity for brief or long questionnaires with global questions. Whereas the magnitude of error in accuracy of recall of particular types of activity may be reduced by completion of a logbook that is similar in structure to the survey being validated, this does not appear to influence overall estimates of validity.

Gait termination : a review of experimental methods and the effects of aging and gait pathologies

The study of human gait has expanded and diversified to the extent that it is now possible to identify a substantive literature concerning a variety of gait tasks, such as gait initiation [Halliday SE, Winter DA, Frank JS, Patla AE, Prince F. The initiation of gait in young, elderly, and Parkinson's disease subjects. Gait Posture 1998;8:8–14; Mickelborough J, van der Linden ML, Tallis RC, Ennos AR. Muscle activity during gait initiation in normal elderly people. Gait Posture 2004;19:50–57], stepping over and across obstacles [Patla AE, Prentice SD, Robinson C, Newfold J. Visual control of locomotion: strategies for changing direction and for going over obstacles. J Exp Psych 1991;17:603–34; Chen, HC, Ashton-Miller JA, Alexander NB, Schultz AB. Effect of age and available response time on ability to step over an obstacle. J Gerontol 1994;49:227–33; Sparrow WA, Shinkfield AJ, Chow S, Begg RK. Gait characteristics in stepping over obstacles. Hum Mov Sci 1996;15:605–22; Begg RK, Sparrow WA, Lythgo ND. Time-domain analysis of foot–ground reaction forces in negotiating obstacles. Gait Posture 1998;7:99–109; Patla AE, Rietdyk S. Visual control of limb trajectory over obstacles during locomotion: effect of obstacle height and width. Gait Posture 1993;1:45–60] negotiating raised surfaces such as curbs and stairs [Begg RK, Sparrow WA. Gait characteristics of young and older individuals negotiating a raised surface: implications for the prevention of falls. J Gerontol Med Sci 2000;55A:147–54; Mcfayden BJ, Winter DA. An integrated biomechanical analysis of normal stair ascent and descent. J Biomech 1988;21:733–44]. In addition, increasing research interest in age-related declines in gait that might predispose individuals to falls has engendered a very extensive literature concerning ageing effects on gait. While rapid locomotor adjustments are common in the course of daily activities there has been no previous review of the findings concerning gait adaptations when walking is terminated both rapidly and unexpectedly. The aims of this review were first, to summarise the key research findings and methodological considerations from studies of termination. The second aim was to demonstrate the effects of ageing and gait pathologies on termination with respect to the regulation of step characteristics, lower-limb muscle activation patterns and foot–ground reaction forces.

Comparability of dietary patterns assessed by multiple dietary assessment methods: results from the 1946 British Cohort

Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the consistency of dietary patterns assessed through the use of a dietary recall and a 5-day food diary. Design: Participants (n=2265) of a longitudinal study of health and development completed 48-h dietary recall at interview, followed by a 5-day food diary and with the 24 h immediately preceding the interview analysed separately as a 24-h recall. Mean intakes of foods and nutrients were calculated and dietary patterns were assessed using exploratory factor analysis, using the method of principal components. Paired t-tests and correlation coefficients were used to compare the three dietary assessment methods. Results: Five distinct dietary patterns were identified using the food diary and the 48-h recall but were less consistent on the 24-h recall.  Correlations between factor scores on the 48-h recall and the food diary (r=0.13–0.67) were higher than those between the 24-h recall and food diary (r=-0.01–0.59). The recall methods were effective at ranking subjects according to food and nutrient intakes, with the 48-h recall and food diary showing higher correlations in both males and females. Conclusions: This study indicates that a 48-h recall effectively characterises dietary patterns in British adults when compared to a food diary and ranks participants appropriately with respect to most nutrients and foods and is superior to a single 24-h recall. These results have implications for longitudinal studies where maximising response rates to repeat dietary assessment tools is essential.