Prediction of alcohol-related harm from controlled drinking stragegies and alcohol consumption trajectories

Aims To establish predictors of age 21 alcohol-related harm from prior drinking patterns, current levels of alcohol consumption and use of controlled drinking strategies.
Participants One thousand, five hundred and ninety-six students recruited from an initial sample of 3300 during their final year of high school in 1993.
Design Longitudinal follow-up across five waves of data collection.
Setting Post high school in Victoria, Australia.
Measurements Self-administered surveys examining a range of health behaviours, including alcohol consumption patterns and related behaviour.
Findings Drinking behaviours at age 21 were found to be strongly predicted by drinking trajectories established through the transition from high school. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that alcohol-related harms at age 21 were reduced where current levels of alcohol use fell within limits recommended in Australian national guidelines. After controlling for this effect it was found that the range of strategies employed by participants to control alcohol use maintained a small protective influence. Post-high-school drinking trajectories continued to demonstrate a significant effect after controlling for current behaviours. Findings revealed that over one quarter of males and females drank alcohol, but on a less-than-weekly basis. This pattern of alcohol use demonstrated considerable stability through the post-school transition and was associated with a low level of subsequent harm at age 21.
Conclusions Future research should investigate whether encouraging more Australian adolescents to drink alcohol on a less-than-weekly basis may be a practical intervention target for reducing alcohol-related harms.

Adolescent alcohol-use trajectories in the transition from high school

A cohort of 3300 students from high schools across Victoria, Australia, were surveyed regarding their patterns of alcohol consumption from mid-1993 to 1995. The first wave of data was collected halfway through the students' final year of school (year 12). Students were then resurveyed 3 months following school completion and on two subsequent occasions, each separated by 6-month intervals. Analysis of the four waves of data indicated that five longitudinal patterns (trajectories) characterized temporal trends in male and female alcohol use through the transition from high school. Stable non-use trajectories were evident for 17% of males and 16% of females. Trajectories of less than weekly use characterized 45% of females and 46% of males, and showed little tendency to escalate toward harmful use. Among those using alcohol on a weekly or more frequent basis in high school, with few exceptions, use continued with at least the same frequency, but the quantity of alcohol consumed tended to escalate over time toward harmful levels. Overall, findings indicate that patterns of alcohol use tend to be stable over time, and more frequent alcohol use during the final year of high school tends to precede potentially harmful alcohol use following high school. Encouraging those high school students who consume alcohol once per week or more often to use alcohol on a less than weekly basis may be a valuable yet neglected harm minimization strategy.

Prediction of alcohol-related harm from controlled drinking strategies and alcohol consumption trajectories

Aims To establish predictors of age 21 alcohol-related harm from prior drinking patterns, current levels of alcohol consumption and use of controlled drinking strategies.

Participants One thousand, five hundred and ninety-six students recruited from an initial sample of 3300 during their final year of high school in 1993.

Design Longitudinal follow-up across five waves of data collection.

Setting Post high school in Victoria, Australia.

Measurements Self-administered surveys examining a range of health behaviours, including alcohol consumption patterns and related behaviour.

Findings Drinking behaviours at age 21 were found to be strongly predicted by drinking trajectories established through the transition from high school. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that alcohol-related harms at age 21 were reduced where current levels of alcohol use fell within limits recommended in Australian national guidelines. After controlling for this effect it was found that the range of strategies employed by participants to control alcohol use maintained a small protective influence. Post-high-school drinking trajectories continued to demonstrate a significant effect after controlling for current behaviours. Findings revealed that over one quarter of males and females drank alcohol, but on a less-than-weekly basis. This pattern of alcohol use demonstrated considerable stability through the post-school transition and was associated with a low level of subsequent harm at age 21.

Conclusions Future research should investigate whether encouraging more Australian adolescents to drink alcohol on a less-than-weekly basis may be a practical intervention target for reducing alcohol-related harms.

Alternative learning trajectories

Lesson planning usually involves the generation of a hypothetical learning trajectory. This paper illustrates a teaching strategy that is one focus of a major research project. Alternative learning trajectories with different entry level prompts were used to enable students to access the concepts and procedures necessary for their joining the main learning trajectory. The strategy is being trialled in primary classrooms that have a large proportion of lower SES students, with the aim of maximising success in mathematics for all students.

The escape sonnets and other poetry

In its four parts, The escape sonnets is concerned with modes of perception and the play of language. 

Psychosocial precursors and correlates of differing internalizing trajectories from 3 to 15 years

Psychosocial precursors and correlates of parent-reported internalizing behavior trajectories across the age span of 3–15 years were explored using a community-based cohort of Australian children. Six internalizing trajectories had previously been identified for both girls (N = 810) and boys (N = 874) in this sample, comprising stable low, high, decreasing, and increasing pathways. Infancy and toddler temperamental traits (inhibition/shyness, irritability), behavior problems, and parent–child relationship difficulties constituted significant risks for subsequent problematic internalizing profiles. Several gender-specific trends were evident, with temperamental reactivity and shyness, less optimal parenting, and peer difficulties more salient for girls on increasing trajectories whereas externalizing problems were more prominent among boys on increasing trajectories. Factors associated with recovery from elevated symptoms included higher levels of social competence, better parent and peer relations, and more positive school adjustment. Findings suggest that individual characteristics and relationship experiences may be involved in the development and course of internalizing problems.

Escape artists

The figure of the female visual artist within literature has attracted a great deal of attention from feminists. In this thesis, the author examines the idea of a feminist gaze located in the female protagonists within fiction that insists on the sense of touch to alter the principle of vision.

Timing of immune escape linked to success or failure of vaccination

Successful vaccination against HIV should limit viral replication sufficiently to prevent the emergence of viral immune escape mutations. Broadly directed immunity is likely to be required to limit opportunities for immune escape variants to flourish. We studied the emergence of an SIV Gag cytotoxic T cell immune escape variant in pigtail macaques expressing the Mane-A*10 MHC I allele using a quantitative RT-PCR to measure viral loads of escape and wild type variants. Animals receiving whole Gag expressing vaccines completely controlled an SIV_mac251 challenge, had broader CTL responses and exhibited minimal CTL escape. In contrast, animals vaccinated with only a single CTL epitope and challenged with the same SIV_mac251 stock had high levels of viral replication and rapid CTL escape. Unvaccinated naïve animals exhibited a slower emergence of immune escape variants. Thus narrowly directed vaccination against a single epitope resulted in rapid immune escape and viral levels equivalent to that of naïve unvaccinated animals. These results emphasize the importance of inducing broadly directed HIV-specific immunity that effectively quashes early viral replication and limits the generation of immune escape variants. This has important implications for the selection of HIV vaccines for expanded human trials.

Ageing mallee eucalypt vegetation after fire : insights for successional trajectories in semi-arid mallee ecosystems

A critical requirement in the ecological management of fire is knowledge of the age-class distribution of the vegetation. Such knowledge is important because it underpins the distribution of ecological features important to plants and animals including retreat sites, food sources and foraging microhabitats. However, in many regions, knowledge of the age-class distribution of vegetation is severely constrained by the limited data available on fire history. Much fire-history mapping is restricted to post-1972 fires, following satellite imagery becoming widely available. To investigate fire history in the semi-arid Murray Mallee region in southern Australia, we developed regression models for six species of mallee eucalypt (Eucalyptus oleosa F.Muell. ex. Miq. subsp. oleosa, E. leptophylla F.Muell. ex. Miq., E. dumosa J. Oxley, E. costata subsp. murrayana L. A. S. Johnson & K. D. Hill, E. gracilis F.Muell. and E. socialis F.Muell. ex. Miq.) to quantify the relationship between mean stem diameter and stem age (indicated by fire-year) at sites of known time since fire. We then used these models to predict mean stem age, and thus infer fire-year, for sites where the time since fire was not known. Validation of the models with independent data revealed a highly significant correlation between the actual and predicted time since fire (r = 0.71, P < 0.001, n = 88), confirming the utility of this method for ageing stands of mallee eucalypt vegetation. Validation data suggest the models provide a conservative estimate of the age of a site (i.e. they may under-estimate the minimum age of sites >35 years since fire). Nevertheless, this approach enables examination of post-fire chronosequences in semi-arid mallee ecosystems to be extended from 35 years post-fire to over 100 years. The predicted ages identified for mallee stands imply a need for redefining what is meant by ‘old-growth’ mallee, and challenges current perceptions of an over-abundance of ‘long-unburnt’ mallee vegetation. Given the strong influence of fire on semi-arid mallee vegetation, this approach offers the potential for a better understanding of long-term successional dynamics and the status of biota in an ecosystem that encompasses more than 250 000 km² of southern Australia.

Policy trajectories : treading the discursive path of policy analysis

This paper is concerned with theorising the nature of policy and its production. It takes as its starting point the work of Stephen Ball,1 particularly his writings within the pages of this journal (13(2), 1993)—later reprinted as Chapter 2 in Education Reform (1994a)—as well as his earlier writings in Politics and Policy Making in Education (1990) and Reforming Education and Changing Schools (Bowe, Ball & Gold, 1992). More broadly, the paper is located within a 'new' sociological interest in education policy often referred to as 'policy sociology'2 (Payne, Dingwall, Payne & Carter, 1981; Ozga, 1987, Ball, 1990; Bowe, Ball & Gold, 1992); a concern that is 'rooted in the social science tradition, historically informed and drawing on qualitative and illuminative techniques' (Ozga, 1987, p. 144) and 'united by the conviction that "things", especially policy discourse, must be pulled apart' (Troyna, 1994, p. 71) to determine whose interests they serve.

Learning and detecting activities from movement trajectories using the hierarchical hidden Markov model

Directly modeling the inherent hierarchy and shared structures of human behaviors, we present an application of the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) for the problem of activity recognition. We argue that to robustly model and recognize complex human activities, it is crucial to exploit both the natural hierarchical decomposition and shared semantics embedded in the movement trajectories. To this end, we propose the use of the HHMM, a rich stochastic model that has been recently extended to handle shared structures, for representing and recognizing a set of complex indoor activities. Furthermore, in the need of real-time recognition, we propose a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter (RBPF) that efficiently computes the filtering distribution at a constant time complexity for each new observation arrival. The main contributions of this paper lie in the application of the shared-structure HHMM, the estimation of the model's parameters at all levels simultaneously, and a construction of an RBPF approximate inference scheme. The experimental results in a real-world environment have confirmed our belief that directly modeling shared structures not only reduces computational cost, but also improves recognition accuracy when compared with the tree HHMM and the flat HMM.