A marginalised Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for model based analysis of EEG data

The work presented in this paper focuses on fitting of a neural mass model to EEG data. Neurophysiology inspired mathematical models were developed for simulating brain's electrical activity imaged through Electroencephalography (EEG) more than three decades ago. At the present well informative models which even describe the functional integration of cortical regions also exists. However, a very limited amount of work is reported in literature on the subject of model fitting to actual EEG data. Here, we present a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation of the EEG model via a marginalized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach.<br />

Inter-cycle variability of ignition delay in an ethanol fumigated common rail diesel engine

An experimental study has been performed to investigate the ignition delay of a modern heavy-duty common-rail diesel engine run with fumigated ethanol substitutions up to 40% on an energy basis. The ignition delay was determined through the use of statistical modelling in a Bayesian framework this framework allows for the accurate determination of the start of combustion from single consecutive cycles and does not require any differentiation of the in-cylinder pressure signal. At full load the ignition delay has been shown to decrease with increasing ethanol substitutions and evidence of combustion with high ethanol substitutions prior to diesel injection have also been shown experimentally and by modelling. Whereas, at half load increasing ethanol substitutions have increased the ignition delay. A threshold absolute air to fuel ratio (mole basis) of above ~110 for consistent operation has been determined from the inter-cycle variability of the ignition delay, a result that agrees well with previous research of other in-cylinder parameters and further highlights the correlation between the air to fuel ratio and inter-cycle variability. Numerical modelling to investigate the sensitivity of ethanol combustion has also been performed. It has been shown that ethanol combustion is sensitive to the initial air temperature around the feasible operating conditions of the engine. Moreover, a negative temperature coefficient region of approximately 900{1050 K (the approximate temperature at fuel injection) has been shown with for n-heptane and n-heptane/ethanol blends in the numerical modelling. A consequence of this is that the dominate effect influencing the ignition delay under increasing ethanol substitutions may rather be from an increase in chemical reactions and not from in-cylinder temperature. Further investigation revealed that the chemical reactions at low ethanol substitutions are different compared to the high (&gt; 20%) ethanol substitutions.

Characterising an ECG signal using statistical modelling: a feasibility study

For clinical use, in electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis it is important to detect not only the centre of the P wave, the QRS complex and the T wave, but also the time intervals, such as the ST segment. Much research focused entirely on qrs complex detection, via methods such as wavelet transforms, spline fitting and neural networks. However, drawbacks include the false classification of a severe noise spike as a QRS complex, possibly requiring manual editing, or the omission of information contained in other regions of the ECG signal. While some attempts were made to develop algorithms to detect additional signal characteristics, such as P and T waves, the reported success rates are subject to change from person-to-person and beat-to-beat. To address this variability we propose the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo statistical modelling to extract the key features of an ECG signal and we report on a feasibility study to investigate the utility of the approach. The modelling approach is examined with reference to a realistic computer generated ECG signal, where details such as wave morphology and noise levels are variable.

Comparison of Two Methods for Caluculating the Partition Functions of Various Spatial Statistical Models

Likelihood computation in spatial statistics requires accurate and efficient calculation of the normalizing constant (i.e. partition function) of the Gibbs distribution of the model. Two available methods to calculate the normalizing constant by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are compared by simulation experiments for an Ising model, a Gaussian Markov field model and a pairwise interaction point field model.<br />

The hidden permutation model and location-based activity recognition

Permutation modeling is challenging because of the combinatorial nature of the problem. However, such modeling is often required in many real-world applications, including activity recognition where subactivities are often permuted and partially ordered. This paper introduces a novel Hidden Permutation Model (HPM) that can learn the partial ordering constraints in permuted state sequences. The HPM is parameterized as an exponential family distribution and is flexible so that it can encode constraints via different feature functions. A chain-flipping Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is employed for inference to overcome the O(n!) complexity. Gradient-based maximum likelihood parameter learning is presented for two cases when the permutation is known and when it is hidden. The HPM is evaluated using both simulated and real data from a location-based activity recognition domain. Experimental results indicate that the HPM performs far better than other baseline models, including the naive Bayes classifier, the HMM classifier, and Kirshner's multinomial permutation model. Our presented HPM is generic and can potentially be utilized in any problem where the modeling of permuted states from noisy data is needed.

Modelling human preferences for ranking and collaborative filtering: a probabilistic ordered partition approach

Learning preference models from human generated data is an important task in modern information processing systems. Its popular setting consists of simple input ratings, assigned with numerical values to indicate their relevancy with respect to a specific query. Since ratings are often specified within a small range, several objects may have the same ratings, thus creating ties among objects for a given query. Dealing with this phenomena presents a general problem of modelling preferences in the presence of ties and being query-specific. To this end, we present in this paper a novel approach by constructing probabilistic models directly on the collection of objects exploiting the combinatorial structure induced by the ties among them. The proposed probabilistic setting allows exploration of a super-exponential combinatorial state-space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown order among them. Learning and inference in such a large state-space are challenging, and yet we present in this paper efficient algorithms to perform these tasks. Our approach exploits discrete choice theory, imposing generative process such that the finite set of objects is partitioned into subsets in a stagewise procedure, and thus reducing the state-space at each stage significantly. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are then presented for the proposed models. We demonstrate that the model can potentially be trained in a large-scale setting of hundreds of thousands objects using an ordinary computer. In fact, in some special cases with appropriate model specification, our models can be learned in linear time. We evaluate the models on two application areas: (i) document ranking with the data from the Yahoo! challenge and (ii) collaborative filtering with movie data. We demonstrate that the models are competitive against state-of-the-arts.

A statistical model for combustion resonance from a DI diesel engine with applications

Introduced in this paper is a Bayesian model for isolating the resonant frequency from combustion chamber resonance. The model shown in this paper focused on characterising the initial rise in the resonant frequency to investigate the rise of in-cylinder bulk temperature associated with combustion. By resolving the model parameters, it is possible to determine: the start of pre-mixed combustion, the start of diffusion combustion, the initial resonant frequency, the resonant frequency as a function of crank angle, the in-cylinder bulk temperature as a function of crank angle and the trapped mass as a function of crank angle. The Bayesian method allows for individual cycles to be examined without cycle-averaging|allowing inter-cycle variability studies. Results are shown for a turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine run at 2000 rpm and full load.

Camera model identification with unknown models

Feature based camera model identification plays an important role for forensics investigations on images. The conventional feature based identification schemes suffer from the problem of unknown models, that is, some images are captured by the camera models previously unknown to the identification system. To address this problem, we propose a new scheme: Source Camera Identification with Unknown models (SCIU). It has the capability of identifying images of the unknown models as well as distinguishing images of the known models. The new SCIU scheme consists of three stages: 1) unknown detection; 2) unknown expansion; and 3) (K+1)-class classification. Unknown detection applies a k-nearest neighbours method to recognize a few sample images of unknown models from the unlabeled images. Unknown expansion further extends the set of unknown sample images using a self-training strategy. Then, we address a specific (K+1)-class classification, in which the sample images of unknown (1-class) and known models (K-class) are combined to train a classifier. In addition, we develop a parameter optimization method for unknown detection, and investigate the stopping criterion for unknown expansion. The experiments carried out on the Dresden image collection confirm the effectiveness of the proposed SCIU scheme. When unknown models present, the identification accuracy of SCIU is significantly better than the four state-of-art methods: 1) multi-class Support Vector Machine (SVM); 2) binary SVM; 3) combined classification framework; and 4) decision boundary carving.

A Bayesian approach to the determination of ignition delay

A novel in-cylinder pressure method for determining ignition delay has been proposed and demonstrated. This method proposes a new Bayesian statistical model to resolve the start of combustion, defined as being the point at which the band-pass in-cylinder pressure deviates from background noise and the combustion resonance begins. Further, it is demonstrated that this method is still accurate in situations where there is noise present. The start of combustion can be resolved for each cycle without the need for ad hoc methods such as cycle averaging. Therefore, this method allows for analysis of consecutive cycles and inter-cycle variability studies. Ignition delay obtained by this method and by the net rate of heat release have been shown to give good agreement. However, the use of combustion resonance to determine the start of combustion is preferable over the net rate of heat release method because it does not rely on knowledge of heat losses and will still function accurately in the presence of noise. Results for a six-cylinder turbo-charged common-rail diesel engine run with neat diesel fuel at full, three quarters and half load have been presented. Under these conditions the ignition delay was shown to increase as the load was decreased with a significant increase in ignition delay at half load, when compared with three quarter and full loads.

Monte Carlo calculations of the free energy of binary SII hydrogen clathrate hydrates for identifying efficient promoter molecules

The thermodynamics of binary sII hydrogen clathrates with secondary guest molecules is studied with Monte Carlo simulations. The small cages of the sII unit cell are occupied by one H2 guest molecule. Different promoter molecules entrapped in the large cages are considered. Simulations are conducted at a pressure of 1000 atm in a temperature range of 233?293 K. To determine the stabilizing effect of different promoter molecules on the clathrate, the Gibbs free energy of fully and partially occupied sII hydrogen clathrates are calculated. Our aim is to predict what would be an efficient promoter molecule using properties such as size, dipole moment, and hydrogen bonding capability. The gas clathrate configurational and free energies are compared. The entropy makes a considerable contribution to the free energy and should be taken into account in determining stability conditions of binary sII hydrogen clathrates.

EEG data classification using wavelet features selected by Wilcoxon statistics

This paper introduces a method to classify EEG signals using features extracted by an integration of wavelet transform and the nonparametric Wilcoxon test. Orthogonal Haar wavelet coefficients are ranked based on the Wilcoxon test&rsquo;s statistics. The most prominent discriminant wavelets are assembled to form a feature set that serves as inputs to the na&iuml;ve Bayes classifier. Two benchmark datasets, named Ia and Ib, downloaded from the brain&ndash;computer interface (BCI) competition II are employed for the experiments. Classification performance is evaluated using accuracy, mutual information, Gini coefficient and F-measure. Widely used classifiers, including feedforward neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, ensemble learning Adaboost and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are also implemented for comparisons. The proposed combination of Haar wavelet features and na&iuml;ve Bayes classifier considerably dominates the competitive classification approaches and outperforms the best performance on the Ia and Ib datasets reported in the BCI competition II. Application of na&iuml;ve Bayes also provides a low computational cost approach that promotes the implementation of a potential real-time BCI system.

EEG signal classification for BCI applications by wavelets and interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems

The nonlinear, noisy and outlier characteristics of electroencephalography (EEG) signals inspire the employment of fuzzy logic due to its power to handle uncertainty. This paper introduces an approach to classify motor imagery EEG signals using an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) in a combination with wavelet transformation. Wavelet coefficients are ranked based on the statistics of the receiver operating characteristic curve criterion. The most informative coefficients serve as inputs to the IT2FLS for the classification task. Two benchmark datasets, named Ia and Ib, downloaded from the brain-computer interface (BCI) competition II, are employed for the experiments. Classification performance is evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and F-measure. Widely-used classifiers, including feedforward neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, AdaBoost and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are also implemented for comparisons. The wavelet-IT2FLS method considerably dominates the comparable classifiers on both datasets, and outperforms the best performance on the Ia and Ib datasets reported in the BCI competition II by 1.40% and 2.27% respectively. The proposed approach yields great accuracy and requires low computational cost, which can be applied to a real-time BCI system for motor imagery data analysis.

Fuzzy system with tabu search learning for classification of motor imagery data

This paper introduces an approach to classify EEG signals using wavelet transform and a fuzzy standard additive model (FSAM) with tabu search learning mechanism. Wavelet coefficients are ranked based on statistics of the Wilcoxon test. The most informative coefficients are assembled to form a feature set that serves as inputs to the tabu-FSAM. Two benchmark datasets, named Ia and Ib, downloaded from the brain-computer interface (BCI) competition II are employed for the experiments. Classification performance is evaluated using accuracy, mutual information, Gini coefficient and F-measure. Widely-used classifiers, including feedforward neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, ensemble learning Adaboost and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are also implemented for comparisons. The proposed tabu-FSAM method considerably dominates the competitive classifiers, and outperforms the best performance on the Ia and Ib datasets reported in the BCI competition II.