Driver behaviour prediction for motion simulators using changepoint segmentation

Driving phenomenon is a repetitive process, that permits sequential learning under identifying the proper change periods. Sequential filtering is widely used for tracking and prediction of state dynamics. However, it suffers at abrupt changes, which cause sudden incremental prediction error. We provide a sequential filtering approach using online Bayesian detection of change points to decrease prediction error generally, and specifically at abrupt changes. The approach learns from optimally detected segments for identifying driving behaviour. Change points detection is done by the Pruned Exact Linear Time algorithm. Computational cost of our approach is bounded by the cost of the implemented sequential filter. This computational performance is suitable to the online nature of motion simulator's delay reduction. The approach was tested on a simulated driving scenario using Vortex by CM Labs. The state dimensions are simulated 2D space coordinates, and velocity. Particle filter was used for online sequential filtering. Prediction results show that change-point detection improves the quality of state estimation compared to traditional sequential filters, and is more suitable for predicting behavioural activities.

Proximate cues to phases of movement in a highly dispersive waterfowl, anas superciliosa

BACKGROUND: Waterfowl can exploit distant ephemeral wetlands in arid environments and provide valuable insights into the response of birds to rapid environmental change, and behavioural flexibility of avian movements. Currently much of our understanding of behavioural flexibility of avian movement comes from studies of migration in seasonally predictable biomes in the northern hemisphere. We used GPS transmitters to track 20 Pacific black duck (Anas superciliosa) in arid central Australia. We exploited La Niña conditions that brought extensive flooding, so allowing a rare opportunity to investigate how weather and other environmental factors predict initiation of long distance movement toward freshly flooded habitats. We employed behavioural change point analysis to identify three phases of movement: sedentary, exploratory and long distance oriented movement. We then used random forest models to determine the ability of meteorological and remote sensed landscape variables to predict initiation of these phases. RESULTS: We found that initiation of exploratory movement phases is influenced by fluctuations in local weather conditions and accumulated rainfall in the landscape. Initiation of long distance movement phases was found to be highly individualistic with minor influence from local weather conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals how individuals utilise local conditions to respond to changes in resource distribution at broad scales. Our findings suggest that individual movement decisions of dispersive birds are informed by the integration of multiple weather cues operating at different temporal and spatial scales.

Decadal decline in demersal fish biomass coincident with a prolonged drought and the introduction of an exotic starfish

Between 1990 and 2011, Port Phillip Bay in southern Australia experienced 2 major ecological disturbances: a prolonged drought from 1997 to 2010, and the introduction of the invasive starfish, Asterias amurensis. The drought reduced land-based nitrogen inputs by 64%, and the biomass of A. amurensis in the deep centre of the bay peaked at 56% of the resident fish biomass in 2000. The impacts of these disturbances on fish were assessed using a demersal trawl time-series spanning 2 decades (1990 to 2011). The timing and spatial extent of changes to fish biomass were analysed using ANCOVA and change point analysis. During the drought, fish biomass declined by 69% in the deep centre of the bay, by 50% at intermediate depths, and showed no significant change around the shallow fringes. This spatial pattern is consistent with hydrodynamic modelling, which suggests that during the drought a greater proportion of the (lower) nitrogen input was retained near the coastal fringe. Most of the decline in fish biomass was attributed to the cumulative effects of reduced productivity during the 12 yr drought. However, declines in 3 species in the deep region were attributed to competition with A. amurensis. Each of these species exhibited high dietary overlap with A. amurensis and displayed sharp declines in biomass coinciding with the peak abundance of A. amurensis in 2000.

A longitudinal study of body change strategies among adolescent males

This study was designed to examine the factors predicting a range of body change strategies among adolescent males over an 8-month time period. This is the first published longitudinal study of body change strategies to increase weight and muscles among males. The 5 body change strategies in the present study were eating and exercise to lose weight, increase weight, increase muscles, bingeing, and use of food supplements. The extent to which Body Mass Index (BMI) and these body change strategies predicted each other over an 8-month period was evaluated. The role of pressure from parents and peers to lose weight, increase weight, or increase muscles was also evaluated. After controlling for the Time 1 level of each variable, only bingeing, and use of food supplements were predicted by other Time 1 body change variables. Bingeing at Time 1, and a combination of all of the other variables predicted bingeing at Time 2; use of food supplements and bingeing at Time 1 predicted the use of food supplements at Time 2. Perceived pressure from parents and peers to lose weight at Time 1 predicted strategies to lose weight at Time 2; perceived pressure from parents and peers to increase weight at Time 1 predicted strategies to increase weight at Time 2; and perceived pressure to lose weight, increase weight, and increase muscles at Time 1 predicted the use of food supplements at Time 2. These results indicate that extreme body change strategies are predicted by the adoption of more normative body change strategies at an earlier point in time, and that a range of body change strategies among adolescent males are affected by perceived pressures from parents and peers.

Whose history? Whose heritage? Positing a sustainable future for Point Nepean, Victoria

Australia's national heritage comprises exceptional natural and cultural places which help give Australia its national identity. This paper reports on work in progress. It critically and reflectively explores the bonds and  limitations between the work of historians, heritage professionals and ‘free thinkers’ – architects, artists and writers – in the task of identifying, protecting and interpreting the possibilities and opportunities presented by our cultural heritage at Point Nepean, Victoria. Underway is the development of an extensive knowledge database, as historians grapple with the problem of understanding the complex history of Point Nepean. Historians and heritage professionals aspire to recreate the past; they search for the patterns of history; they use historical evidence to gain political objectives; they distil insights from the historical record itself. While scholarship and rigorous procedures are generally adhered to, much hangs on interpretation and perspective; how documentation and imagination are interwoven; on how and by whom the story is told. Once a place is listed on National and/or State registers, the conservation process is invoked for transferring information about the past into the future, using current skills, knowledge and  techniques. In Australia conservation is underpinned by the principle that change to a heritage place should not occur at the expense of its special character and qualities, by what is described as its heritage significance. This requires that approval be obtained before any action takes place which has, will have, or is likely to have, a significant impact on the national heritage values of a listed place. Conflict in heritage management arises because there are many different views on how different values are  managed. It is the role of the architectural historian, conservation architect and architect to creatively reveal the inherent values, to interpret them and sustain the place into the future, never losing sight of Point Nepean’s unique ‘sense of place’.

From ecological science to environmental education : a professional turning point?

This article explores the significance of a shift in young people’s professional career from ecological science to environmental education. The article reflects on the role of higher education in addressing social and political issues in environment and sustainability, and then provides an account of a course on environmental education research methodology at the Universidad Nacional Autfinoma de México. The course included participants with an academic and professional background in ecological science who were seeking a change in profession to that of environmental education. It became clear that a shift in profession entails the exploration of an alternative professional philosophy. We draw on some of the participants’ written biographical testimonies to identify some themes around ‘professional turning points’ and conclude that at least for some participants, there is a tension between science education that encourages ‘an aspiration to be objective’ and environmental education that encourages an ‘aspiration to respect the subjective’.

Conversion stories as shifting narratives of organizational change

This paper is concerned with how employees talk about their experiences of organizational change and focuses specifically on the construction of conversion stories. These are particularly positive narratives that consider change as a turning point in which individuals depart from an old way of life pre-change to embrace a post-change organization. In this study, employees seek conversion into management groups and report the values and philosophies of management in their narratives, thus highlighting the benefits of change while suppressing any negative aspects. This paper draws attention to the dramatic nature of the conversion story and explores the sharp distinction between the reporting of experiences prior to and after change. We also investigate the relationship between constructing conversion stories and gaining personal and career advancement at work and suggest that beneath the positive exterior of the conversion narratives lies a theme of silence, which may be related to career advancement. Our findings suggest that such stories of silence complicate the conversion story as an example of positive organizational change and discuss implications for both the theory and practice of narrative change research.

Communicating climate change: public responsiveness and matters of concern

Since climate change captured global attention in the 1990s, the private individual, addressed as a member of a concerned public, has occupied a focal position in the discourse of environmental amelioration. Recently, a range of prominent books, films and television programs — for example, Tim Flannery’s The Weather Makers (2005), Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth (2006) and ABC TV’s Carbon Cops (2007) — have promoted the role of the individual as the ‘starting point’ for effective environmental action. These texts assume that the provision and comprehension of sufficient information to the public about climate change will change individual habits and practices. This accords with the ‘information-deficit model’ in environmental communication research, a concept that asserts a direct connection between individual awareness and response, and collective action. This paper discusses the limitations of this model, pervasive in both popular and official approaches to climate change. It will interrogate the philosophical assumptions that underlie it, in which nature and culture are polarised and the human is positioned in a certain, and separate, relationship to the non-human world — an inheritance of the very logic that enables the continued exploitation of nature. Applying Bruno Latour’s notion of a ‘matter of concern’ to climate change, where the gathering of a range of irreducible forces and im/materialities continually produce these phenomena, this paper proposes that, in thinking about climate change as essentially unrepresentable, a different mode of public engagement with the issue is asserted.

A gender for change : the future for women in surveying

Women now make up 50% of the working population in the UK, with similar figures reflected across Europe (Williams et al, 2000). Despite this growth, the number of women entering and working in the surveying profession remains consistently low, estimated at 9% of the total of RICS membership in 1999 (Ellison, 1999).

So what is preventing the surveying profession in mimicking the law and medical professions in increasing the participation of women? Is it the lack of awareness of the profession in Schools, Colleges and Careers Education? Is it a traditional perception of a gender-biased profession? Is it the lack of role models for young women? Or is it plain discrimination? If it is one or more of these, then what action should be taken to address the barriers? The paper describes the results of two studies exploring barriers to female entry to the surveying profession and progress made in the profession by women in the UK. The methodologies included questionnaires and interviews with school leavers and with surveying practitioners, male and female, at varying stages of their career.

The studies undertaken by female surveying students found that barriers exist at different points in surveying - at entry and employment, and that some of those barriers are being addressed by the profession in different ways. At the entry point to surveying there is still a lack of awareness of the profession as a career for girls and women. This can be addressed by greater liaison between schools and surveyors in the profession and by increased information and awareness of career advisers. Within the profession there are still barriers for women surveyors to overcome, including work-life balance issues and traditional attitudes of some male surveyors. There are, however, signs of positive change within a number of surveying firms in the UK. The RICS has been identified as an institution that needs to re-examine its attitudes to gender in a number of aspects.

The paper also outlines the work of a project in the UK (which has developed from a European funded project) that is involved in actively addressing the remaining barriers at all levels. The partnership aims to mainstream good practice in recruitment, teaching and learning and employment. Let's TWIST has recently (November 2001) been successful in gaining funds from EQUAL (funded through European Social Fund) with other partners for a major three year project. The aim of the project is to break down gender desegregation in target sectors of employment, and address cultural and attitudinal barriers that promote discrimination by building on the work already developed. Change is clearly happening, and Let's TWIST is one of a number of active groups in this area who are moving things forward towards mainstreaming which, according to the Equal Opportunities Commission (2001)

English language reform and the process of democratic change

Malaysian society has and is undergoing considerable social, political, economic and educational change. Scholars point to the forces of globalization and the needs to be able to meet the challenges of globalization as the central driver of language policy. Commentators, academics and many in the general public have focused on the need for Malaysia to adapt to globalization and the importance of English to this process given the needs and characteristic of the knowledge economy. However, there appears to be less recognition of the way such a change in Malaysian language policy needs to be engaged in a dynamically shifting knowledge society and developing public sphere. Language is a social act and the debate over language and its place and role in society is therefore a debate over the nature and quality of social interaction. Debate over language is thus inherently political. Due to the growth and development of an interactive and engaged public sphere and knowledge society in Malaysia, there is a need to approach to the idea of engaging English that grasps the plurality and complexity of its role in the world. The political approach to engaging English in Malaysia needs to engage democratic deliberation in a society that is increasingly fragmented but also showing signs of developing an active public sphere not beholden to top down authority. Disagreement over language and the way the debate is theorized hides from view the possibility of points of consensus on the issue of English language and Malaysian education. Establishing overlapping consensus through public deliberation and consultation is a necessary precondition to effective language policy in contemporary Malaysia. Failure to understand this only leads to policy paralysis.

Investing in intelligence : an inquiry into educational paradigm change

In this philosophical and practical-critical inquiry, I address two significant and closely related problems - whether and how those involved in the enterprise of education conceptualise a need for educational change, and the observed resistance of school cultures to change efforts. I address the apparent lack of a clear, coherent and viable theory of learning, agency and change, capable of making explicit the need, substantive nature and means of educational change. Based on a meta-analysis of numerous theories and perspectives on human knowing, learning, intelligence, agency and change, I synthesise a 'Dynamic Paradigm of Learning and Change', characterised by fifteen Constructs. I argue that this more viable Paradigm is capable of informing both design and critique of systemic curriculum and assessment policies, school organisation and planning models, professional learning and pedagogical practice, and student learning and action. The Dynamic Paradigm of Learning and Change contrasts with the assumptions reflected in the prevailing culture of institutionalised education, and I argue that dominant views of knowledge and human agency are both theoretically and practically non-viable and unsustainable. I argue that the prevailing culture and experience of schooling contributes to the formation of assumptions, identities, dispositions and orientations to the world characterised by alienation. The Dynamic Paradigm of Learning and Change also contrasts with the assumptions reflected in some educational reform efforts recently promoted at system level in Queensland, Australia. I use the Dynamic Paradigm as the reference point for a formal critique of two influential reform programs, Authentic Pedagogy and the New Basics Project, identifying significant limitations in both the conceptualisation of educational ends and means, and the implementation of these reform agendas. Within the Dynamic Paradigm of Learning and Change, knowledge and learning serve the individual's need for more adaptive or viable functioning in the world. I argue that students' attainment of knowledge of major ways in which others in our culture organise experience (interpret the world) is a legitimate goal of schooling. However, it is more viable to think of the primary function of schooling as providing for the young inspiration, opportunities and support for purposeful doing, and for assisting them in understanding the processes of 'action scheme' change to make such doing more viable. Through the practical-critical components of the inquiry, undertaken in the context of the ferment of pedagogical and curricular discussion and exploration in Queensland between 1999 and 2003, I develop the Key Abilities Model and associated guidelines and resources relating to forms of pedagogy, curriculum organisation and assessment consistent with the Dynamic Paradigm of Learning and Change. I argue the importance of showing teachers why and how their existing visions and conceptions of learning and teaching may be inadequate, and of emphasising teachers' conceptions of learning, knowing, agency and teaching, and their identities, dispositions and orientations to the world, as things that might need to change, in order to realise the intent of educational change focused on transformational student outcomes serving both the individual and collective good. A recommendation is made for implementation and research of a school-based trial of the Key Abilities Model, informed by and reflecting the Dynamic Paradigm of Learning and Change, as an important investment in the development and expression of ‘authentic' human intelligence.

Women, religion and social change in the Philippines : refractions of the past in urban filipinas' religious practices today

This research is an exploration of the place of religious beliefs and practices in the life of contemporary, predominantly Catholic, Filipinas in a large Quezon City Barangay in Metro Manila. I use an iterative discussion of the present in the light of historical studies, which point to women in pre-Spanish ‘Filipino’ society having been the custodians of a rich religious heritage and the central performers in a great variety of ritual activities. I contend that although the widespread Catholic evangelisation, which accompanied colonisation, privileged male religious leadership, Filipinos have retained their belief in feminine personages being primary conduits of access to spiritual agency through which the course of life is directed. In continuity with pre-Hispanic practices, religious activities continue to be conceived in popular consciousness as predominantly women’s sphere of work in the Philippines. I argue that the reason for this is that power is not conceived as a unitary, undifferentiated entity. There are gendered avenues to prestige and power in the Philippines, one of which directly concerns religious leadership and authority. The legitimacy of religious leadership in the Philippines is heavily dependent on the ability to foster and maintain harmonious social relations. At the local level, this leadership role is largely vested in mature influential women, who are the primary arbiters of social values in their local communities. I hold that Filipinos have appropriated symbols of Catholicism in ways that allow for a continuation and strengthening of their basic indigenous beliefs so that Filipinos’ religious beliefs and practices are not dichotomous, as has sometimes been argued. Rather, I illustrate from my research that present day urban Filipinos engage in a blend of formal and informal religious practices and that in the rituals associated with both of these forms of religious practice, women exercise important and influential roles. From the position of a feminist perspective I draw on individual women’s articulation of their life stories, combined with my observation and participation in the religious practices of Catholic women from different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds, to discuss the role of Filipinas in local level community religious leadership. I make interconnections between women’s influence in this sphere, their positioning in family social relations, their role in the celebration of All Saints and All Souls Days in Metro Manila’s cemeteries and the ubiquity and importance of Marian devotions. I accompany these discussions with an extensive body of pictorial plates.

Hail to the chief! Leadership and structural change in the level of consensus on the High Court of Australia

This article identifies structural breaks in dissenting and single opinions on the High Court of Australia and uses a recent method proposed by Caporale and Grier (2002) to examine the effect of leadership on variations in the dissent rate between 1904 and 2001. Although there has been much speculation about the effectiveness of different Chief Justices in obtaining consensus on the Court, to this point most of the evidence has been anecdotal. Our main findings are that the structural breaks that we identify coincide with major turning points in the leadership of the Court and that leadership has been important in explaining variations in the proportion of dissenting opinions on the Court.

Teacher change in exploring representational approaches to learning science

The researcher worked closely with two biology-trained teachers to plan three teaching sequences in the topics of forces, substances and astronomy that were subsequently taught to Year 7 students. The sequences sought to develop a model of classroom practice that foregrounds students’ negotiation of conceptual representations.

The difficulties encountered by individuals in learning science point to the need for a very strong emphasis of the role of representations in learning. There is a need for learners to use their own representational, cultural and cognitive resources to engage with the subject-specific representational practices of science. Researchers who have undertaken classroom studies whereby students have constructed and used their own representations have pointed to several principles in the planning, execution and assessment of student learning (diSessa, 2004; Greeno & Hall, 1997). A key principle is that teachers need to identify big ideas, key concepts, of the topic at the planning stage in order to guide refinement of representational work. These researchers also point out the need for students to engage with multiple representations in different modes that are both teacher and student generated. A representation can only partially explain a particular phenomenon or process and has both positive and negative attributes to the target that it represents. The issue of the partial nature of representations needs to be a component of classroom practice (Greeno & Hall, 1997) in terms of students critiquing representations for their limitations and affordances and explicitly linking multiple representations to construct a fuller understanding of the phenomenon or process under study. The classroom practice should also provide opportunities for students to manipulate representations as reasoning tools (Cox, 1999) in constructing the scientifically acceptable ideas and communicating them.

Research question: What impact was there on the participating teacher’s practice through the adoption of a representational focus to teaching science?

Data collection included video sequences of classroom practice and student responses, student work, field notes, tape records of meetings and discussions, and student and teacher interviews based in some cases on video stimulated recall. Video analysis software was used to capture the variety of representations used, and sequences of representational negotiation.

The teachers in this study reported substantial shifts in their classroom practices, and in the quality of classroom discussions, arising from adopting a representational focus. The shifts were reported by them as a three-fold challenge. First, there was an epistemological challenge as they came to terms with the culturally produced nature of representations in the topics of force, substance and astronomy and their flexibility and power as tools for analysis and communication, as opposed to their previous assumption that this was given knowledge to be learnt as an end point. The second challenge was pedagogical, in that this approach was acknowledged to place much greater agency in the hands of students, and this brought a need to learn to run longer and more structured discussions around conceptual problems. The third challenge related to content coverage. The teachers sacrificed coverage for the greater depth offered by this approach, and were unanimous in their judgment that this had been a change that had paid dividends in terms of student learning.

A method for the visual representation of historic multivariate point data

The visual representation of multivariate spatial and temporal data is important for interpreting and analyzing historical geographic patterns that change over time. The introduction of geospatial technologies in historical scholarship has challenged the suitability of current visual representations due to the need for greater temporal emphasis and the tracking of historical events over time. This research presents a holistic multivariate approach to historical visual representation for point based historical data. The method has been developed through extending the spatial presence in information graphics and through meaningful spatial classification. This paper demonstrates the benefits gained from integrating historical, geographic, temporal, and attribute data through the development of a case study on the history of Melbourne’s cinema venues between 1946 and 1986.