Rating downgrade and the price impact of CDS spread on stock return

We investigate the time-varying informativeness of credit default swap (CDS) trading on stock returns for 302 US firms from July 2004 to August 2010. Using the Acharya and Johnson (2007) measure, we find that CDS trading becomes informative for an increasing number of firms as we approach the global financial crisis (GFC). Firm numbers gradually decline post-GFC, but remain high compared to the pre-GFC period. furthermore, CDS trading imposes the largest conditional price impact on firms that are recently downgraded, regardless of rating levels. Interestingly, this holds during and after the GFC, but not before. We offer two implications. First, despite post-GFC outcry against the CDS market, our results suggest it exhibits enhanced price discovery during the GFC. Second, our findings support criticism that, in the lead-up to the GFC, rating agencies are slow in downgrading firms. However, if downgrade decisions made during and after the GFC induce informed trading in the CDS market, this necessarily implies that during the midst of the GFC, rating agencies have got their act together.

Determinants of stock returns: Factors or systematic co-moments? Crisis versus non-crisis periods

In this paper we evaluate the intertemporal pricing performance of stock return determinants over the periods surrounding, and outside of, financial crises. The analysis focuses on the variables of size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, liquidity, and higher-order systematic co-moments. The evidence reveals that over non-crisis periods the market beta plays an important role in determining the cross-section of stock returns. Size, value, momentum, and liquidity also exhibit associations with the cross-section of stock returns. However, over crisis periods most of the variables we examined lose their explanatory power, suggesting that their usefulness is limited for investment purposes when financial markets experience crises. There is some evidence of coskewness pricing surrounding market crashes. Practitioners may consider coskewness over crisis periods.

Market environment, assortment policy, and performance of small retailers

This study surveys small retail pharmacies to examine the relationship between managers’ perceptions oflocal market environments, their stated assortment policies, and their reported performance levels for alarge product category. Managers report wider assortments when market diversity and market munificenceare high. In turn, wider assortments have a positive effect on reported relative category salesand stock. In addition, market uncertainty has a direct negative effect on reported margins. This studycontrols for both store space as well as the potential direct performance effects of the local market environmentfaced by small retailers.

The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach

This study employs the ARDL cointegration approach in order to examine the impact
of financial liberalization on the relationships between the exchange rate and share
market performance in China. We discovered that cointegration has existed between the
Shanghai A Share Index and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar
and Hong Kong dollar since 2005, when the Chinese exchange rate regime became a
flexible, managed, floating system. We found that both the exchange rate and the money
supply influenced stock price, with a positive correlation. We further show that the
money supply increase was largely caused by a huge ‘hot money’ inflow from other
countries in recent years. After local currency appreciation, hot money, followed by
the money supply increase, pushed the market into a high level, based on expectations
regarding the local currency’s further appreciation.

Call auction transparency and market liquidity: Evidence from China

This paper uses the natural experiment offered by the Shanghai Stock Exchange to investigate the impact of opening call auction transparency on market liquidity. We find that the dissemination of indicative trade information during the pre-open call auction session leads to an overall improvement in stock liquidity in the continuous trading session. Bid-ask spreads narrow in the first trading hour because adverse selection risk fell significantly and there is less price volatility in the continuous market. This effect is greater for actively traded securities than illiquid securities. Our findings are robust for different lengths of sample period, different lengths of trading hours after market open, and stocks that had (and had not) reformed the share split structure during our research period.

Predicting future earnings growth: a test of the dividend payout ratio in the Australian market

This paper examines the use of the payout ratio as a predictor of a firm’s future earnings growth. Recent evidence rejects the hypothesis that firm which retain a large portion of their earnings have strong future earnings growth. Higher dividend payout ratios instead correspond to higher future earnings growth. Examining both listed and delisted firms on the Australian stock exchange over the period 1989 to 2008, we provide further evidence that the dividend payout ratio is positively linked to future earnings growth. The results hold over both one, three and five year periods. Furthermore, our results rejected claims that such a relationship was caused by simple mean reversion in earnings. We find no evidence to support the cash flow signaling and free cash flow hypotheses as an explanation for this relationship.

Interday and intraday volatility: additional evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

After examining both the interday and intraday return volatility of the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, it was found that the open-to-open return variance is consistently greater than the close-to-close variance. Examining the volatility of interday returns and variance ratio tests with five-minute intervals reveals an L-shaped pattern, or more precisely, two L-shaped patterns, starting with a small hump during both the morning and the afternoon sessions, with the morning session having a much higher interday volatility than the afternoon session. This L -shaped interday volatility is supported by the similarly shaped intraday volatility pattern. This result suggests that the high volatility of intraday returns for the market open is not entirely due to the trading mechanisms (call auction in the market opening) but also due to both the accumulated overnight information and the trading halt effect. The five-minute breaks after the auction and blind auction procedures are the two major driving forces which exaggerate the high intraday volatility observed at the market open.

Are Chinese stock markets increasing integration with other markets in the greater China region and other major markets?

This paper investigates the cointegrating and long-term causal relationships between the Shanghai A and B-share market, and between these two markets and the Hong Kong, the Taiwanese, the Japanese and the US market of two sub periods between July 1993 and March 2007. On the basis of a new Granger non-causality test procedure developed by Toda-Yamamoto (1995) and Johansen’s (1988) cointegration test, my results suggest that a long-term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been merged between
the Chinese A-share market and the other markets in greater China region as well as the US market during the post-crisis period which covers the period since Chinese A-share market was opened to the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) in 2002. I also found that the Shanghai A-share market uni-directionally Granger-causes the other regional markets after the Asian financial crisis, while the A-share market and Hong Kong H-share market have had a significant feedback relationship since then. However, I found no evidence there has been cointegrating relationship between Shanghai B-share market and any other market ever since the B-share market was opened to the local retail investors in 2001.

Are Indian stock returns predictable?

In this paper we show that Indian stock returns, based on industry portfolios, portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and on size, are predictable. While we discover that this predictability holds both in in-sample and out-of-sample tests, predictability is not homogenous. Some predictors are important than others and some industries and portfolios of stocks are more predictable and, therefore, more profitable than others. We also discover that a mean combination forecast approach delivers significant out-of-sample performance. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests.

Book-to-market ratio, default risk and return implications: from a negative perspective

A paradox is created by the common practice in stock evaluation models of excluding stocks with a negative book equity (BE). If we interpret the book-to-market ratio as a proxy for distress risk, it makes no sense to exclude these negative BE stocks since they are, prima facie, most prone to distress risk. This paper reassesses the relationship between default risk, return and the book-to-market ratio by incorporating negative BE stocks into the study. We find that negative BE stocks carry higher default risks than their positive BE counterparts and that these risks are not totally offset by higher returns. This suggests that a default risk filter can be used in the investment universe selection process through which the portfolio return can be enhanced.

Asymmetric risk and return: evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper examines volatility asymmetry in a financial market using a stochastic volatility framework. We use the MCMC method for model estimations. There is evidence of volatility asymmetry in the data. Our asymmetric stochastic volatility in mean model, which nests both asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) and stochastic volatility in mean models (SVM), indicates ASV sufficiently captures the risk-return relationship; therefore, augmenting it with volatility in mean does not improve its performance. ASV fits the data better and yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than alternatives. We also demonstrate that asymmetry mainly emanates from the systematic parts of returns. As a result, it is more pronounced at the market level and the volatility feedback effect dominates the leverage effect.

Does board gender diversity improve the informativeness of stock prices?

We show that stock prices of firms with gender-diverse boards reflect more firm-specific information after controlling for corporate governance, earnings quality, institutional ownership and acquisition activity. Further, we show that the relationship is stronger for firms with weak corporate governance suggesting that gender-diverse boards could act as a substitute mechanism for corporate governance that would be otherwise weak. The results are robust to alternative specifications of informativeness and gender diversity and to sensitivity tests controlling for time-invariant firm characteristics and alternative measures of stock price informativeness. We also find that gender diversity improves stock price informativeness through the mechanism of increased public disclosure in large firms and by encouraging private information collection in small firms. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

A random coefficient approach to the predictability of stock returns in panels

© The Author, 2014. Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might not be true. As a response to this, the current study proposes new predictability tests in the context of a random coefficient panel data model, in which the null of no predictability corresponds to the joint restriction that the predictive slope has zero mean and variance. The tests are applied to a large panel of stocks listed at the New York Stock Exchange. The results suggest that while the predictive slopes tend to average to zero, in case of book-to-market and cash flow-to-price the variance of the slopes is positive, which we take as evidence of predictability.