Hypothesis generation for management intelligence

Investigation of the role of hypothesis formation in complex (business) problem solving has resulted in a new approach to hypothesis generation. A prototypical hypothesis generation paradigm for management intelligence has been developed, reflecting a widespread need to support management in such areas as fraud detection and intelligent decision analysis. This dissertation presents this new paradigm and its application to goal directed problem solving methodologies, including case based reasoning. The hypothesis generation model, which is supported by a dynamic hypothesis space, consists of three components, namely, Anomaly Detection, Abductive Reasoning, and Conflict Resolution models. Anomaly detection activates the hypothesis generation model by scanning anomalous data and relations in its working environment. The respective heuristics are activated by initial indications of anomalous behaviour based on evidence from historical patterns, linkages with other cases, inconsistencies, etc. Abductive reasoning, as implemented in this paradigm, is based on joining conceptual graphs, and provides an inference process that can incorporate a new observation into a world model by determining what assumptions should be added to the world, so that it can explain new observations. Abductive inference is a weak mechanism for generating explanation and hypothesis. Although a practical conclusion cannot be guaranteed, the cues provided by the inference are very beneficial. Conflict resolution is crucial for the evaluation of explanations, especially those generated by a weak (abduction) mechanism.The measurements developed in this research for explanation and hypothesis provide an indirect way of estimating the ‘quality’ of an explanation for given evidence. Such methods are realistic for complex domains such as fraud detection, where the prevailing hypothesis may not always be relevant to the new evidence. In order to survive in rapidly changing environments, it is necessary to bridge the gap that exists between the system’s view of the world and reality.Our research has demonstrated the value of Case-Based Interaction, which utilises an hypothesis structure for the representation of relevant planning and strategic knowledge. Under, the guidance of case based interaction, users are active agents empowered by system knowledge, and the system acquires its auxiliary information/knowledge from this external source. Case studies using the new paradigm and drawn from the insurance industry have attracted wide interest. A prototypical system of fraud detection for motor vehicle insurance based on an hypothesis guided problem solving mechanism is now under commercial development. The initial feedback from claims managers is promising.

Process analysis of the solution strategies used for problems contained in the Minnesota Paper Board Form Board test

This thesis reviews progress toward an understanding of the processes involved in the solution of spatial problems. Previous work employing factor analysis and information processing analysis is reviewed and the emphasis on variations in speed and accuracy as the major contributers to individual differences is noted. It is argued that the strategy used by individuals is a preferable explanatory concept for identifying the cognitive substratum necessary for problem solving. Using the protocols obtained from subjects solving The Minnesota Paper Form Board (Revised), a test commonly regarded as measuring skill in spatial visualization, a number of different strategies are isolated. Assumptions as to the task variants which undergird these strategies are made and tested experimentally. The results suggest that task variants such as the size of the stimulus and the shape of the pieces interact with subject variables to produce the operating strategy. Skill in problem solving is revealed in the ability to structure the array, to hold a structured image and to reduce the number of answers requiring intensive processing. The interaction between task and subject variables results in appropriate or inappropriate strategies which in turn affect speed and accuracy. Results suggest that strategy formation and usage are the keys to explaining individual differences and an heuristic model is presented to explain the performance of individual subjects on the problems involved in the Minnesota Paper Form Board. The model can be used to predict performance on other tests; and as an aid to teaching subjects experiencing difficulties. The model presented incorporates strategy variation and is consequently mores complex than previously suggested models. It is argued that such complexity is necessary to explain the nature of a subject's performance and is also necessary to perform diagnostic evaluation. Certain structural -features of the Minnesota Paper Form Board are questioned and suggestions for improvement included. The essential explanatory function of the strategy in use makes the prevalent group administration approach suspect in the prediction of future performance in spatial or vocational activity.

Investigation into the diffusion of innovation in technical and further education : implementing e-mail through action research

This research project examined the diffusion of change within one Victorian TAFE Institute by engaging action research to facilitate implementation of e-mail technology. The theoretical framework involving the concepts of technology innovation and action research was enhanced with the aid of Rogers's (1983) model of the diffusion of the innovation process. Political and cultural factors made up the initiation phase of innovation, enabling the research to concentrate on the implementation phase of e-mail Roger's (1983) model also provided adopter categories that related to the findings of a Computer Attitude Survey that was conducted at The School of Mines and Industries Ballarat (SMB), now the University of Ballarat—TAFE Division since amalgamation on 1st January 1998. Despite management rhetoric about the need to utilise e-mail, Institute teaching staff lacked individual computers in their work areas and most were waiting to become connected to the Internet as late as 1997. According to the action research reports, many staff were resistant to the new e-mail facilities despite having access to personal computers whose numbers doubled annually. The action research project became focussed when action researchers realised that e-mail workshop training was ineffective and that staff required improved access. Improvement to processes within education through collaborative action research had earlier been achieved (McTaggart 1994), and this project actively engaged practitioners to facilitate decentralised e-mail training in the workplace through the action research spiral of planning, acting, observing and reflecting, before replanning. The action researchers * task was to find ways to improve the diffusion of e-mail throughout the Institute and to develop theoretical constructs. My research task was to determine whether action research could successfully facilitate e-mail throughout the Institute. A rich literature existed about technology use in education, technology teaching, gender issues, less about computerphobia, and none about 'e-mailphobia \ It seemed appropriate to pursue the issue of e-mailphobia since it was marginalised, or ignored in the literature. The major political and cultural influences on the technologising of SMB and e-mail introduction were complex, making it impossible to ascertain the relative degrees of influence held by Federal and State Governments, SMB's leadership or the local community, Nonetheless, with the implementation of e-mail, traditional ways were challenged as SMB's culture changed. E-mail training was identified as a staff professional development activity that had been largely unsuccessful. Action research is critical collaborative inquiry by reflective practitioners who are accountable for making the results of their inquiry public and who are self-evaluating of their practice while engaging participative problem-solving and continuing professional development (Zuber-Skerritt 1992, 1993). Action research was the methodology employed in researching e-mail implementation into SMB because it involved collaborative inquiry with colleagues as reflective practitioners. Thoughtful questions could best be explored using deconstructivist philosophy, in asking about the noise of silence, which issues were not addressed, what were the contradictions and who was being marginalised with e-mail usage within SMB. Reviewing literature on action research was complicated by its broad definition and by the variability of research (King & Lonnquist 1992), and yet action research as a research methodology was well represented in educational research literature, and provided a systematic and recognisable way for practitioners to conduct their research. On the basis of this study, it could be stated that action research facilitated the diffusion of e-mail technology into one TAFE Institute, despite the process being disappointingly slow. While the process in establishing the action research group was problematic, action researchers showed that a window of opportunity existed for decentralised diffusion of e-mail training,in preference to bureaucratically motivated 'workshops. Eight major findings, grouped under two broad headings were identified: the process of diffusion (planning, nature of the process, culture, politics) and outcomes of diffusion (categorising, e-mailphobia, the survey device and technology in education). The findings indicated that staff had little experience with e-mail and appeared not to recognise its benefits. While 54.1% did not agree that electronic means could be the preferred way to receive Institute memost some 13.7% admitted to problems with using the voice answering service on telephones. Some 43.3% thought e-mail would not improve their connectedness (how they related) to the Institute. A small percentage of staff had trouble with telephone voice-mail and a number of these were anxious computer users. Individualised tuition and peer support proved helpful to individual staff whom action researchers believed to be 'at risk', as determined from the results of a Computer Attitude Survey. An instructional strategy that fostered the development of self-regulation and peer support was valuable, but there was no measure of the effects of this action research program, other than in qualitative terms. Nevertheless, action research gave space to reflect on the nature of the underlying processes in adopting e-mail. Challenges faced by TAFE action researchers are integrally affected by the values within TAFE, which change constantly and have recently been extensive enough to be considered as a 'new paradigm'. The influence of competition policy, the training reform agenda and technologisation of training have challenged traditional TAFE values. Action research reported that many staff had little immediate professional reason to use e-mail Theoretical answers were submerged beneath practical professional concerns, which related back to how much time teachers had and whether they could benefit from e-mail. A need for the development of principles for the sound educational uses of e-mail increases with the internationalisation of education and an increasing awareness of cultural differences. The implications for conducting action research in TAFE are addressed under the two broad issues of power and pedagogy. Issues of power included gaining access, management's inability to overcome staff resistance to technology, changing TAFE values and using technology for conducting action research. Pedagogical issues included the recognition of educational above technological issues and training staff in action research. Finally, seventeen steps are suggested to overcome power and pedagogical impediments to the conduct of action research within TAFE. This action research project has provided greater insight into the difficulties of successfully introducing one culture-specific technology into one TAFE Institute. TAFE Institutes need to encourage more action research into their operations, and it is only then that -we can expect to answer the unanswered questions raised in this research project.

Investigation into the interactive multimedia production processes of novice multimedia designer /producers in a constructivist environment

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the instructional interactive multimedia (IMI) production processes of adult novice multimedia production course. The study aimed at discovering whether a constructivistic teacher-learning environment facilitated these multimedia novice designer / producers to further develop metacognitivestates of higher-order thinking like schema formation, problem-solving and cognitive construction when producing their interactive multimedia project. To achieve this study examined the facilitative and limiting activities in planning, design and development that have assisted or hindered the NMDPs during their multimedia production work This research utilises a qualitative paradigm and makes extensive use of multiple data sources such as the participants’ proposals, planning aids, logs and final projects for single as well as cross-case analyses and discussion. Three cases were selected for in-depth analysis in the study because they provided interviews and more complete documentation and "thick descriptions" of their multimedia production activities. Findings about the NMDPs multimedia production endeavours showed that they learnt best about multimedia technology for teacing and learning by producing an interactive multimedia project themselves. Factors that enabled some of the NMDPs to flourish in a constructivistic environment included their ability to utilise their new and extended schemata to problem solve, their self regulation and a creative and positive attitude to demanding multimedia work NMDPs who utilised facilitative planning aids and design strategies produced impressive work. The study further indicates that the NMDPs’ holistic multimedia production experience made them aware of the levels of complexity involved and boosted their confidence about multimedia production for educational purposes. Suggestions for further research include examining the production styles of adult multimedia novices and young novices and investigating the implications of designing multimedia for large audience presentation rather than for single or small group learner usage.

Factors affecting success in undergraduate computer programming

The aim of the research is to investigate factors that may explain success in elementary computer programming at the tertiary level. The first phase of the research included the identification of possible explanatory factors through a literature review, a survey of students studying introductory computing, a focus-group session with teachers of computer programming and interviews with programming students. The second phase of the research that was called the main study, involved testing the identified factors. Two different groups of programming students - one group majoring in business computing and another majoring in computer science - completed a survey questionnaire. The findings of the research are as follows. Gender is of little significance for business students but there is an adverse gender penalty for females in computer science. Secondary school assessment is inversely related to outcomes in business computing but directly influences outcomes in the first programming unit in the computer science course. As in prior research, previous knowledge and experience were demonstrated to matter, A range of other variables was found to be of little importance. The research suggests that different problem-solving techniques might be relevant in business compared with those of use in computer science.

Agent-based hybrid framework for decision making on complex problems

Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of ‘reasoning with multimedia information’ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.

Application of hermeneutics to studying an experience mining process

In this paper we investigate an approach to eliciting practitioners’ problem-solving experience across an application domain. The approach is based on a well-known ‘pattern mining’ process which commonly results in a collection of sharable and reusable ‘design patterns’. While pattern mining has been recognised to work effectively in numerous domains, its main problem is the degree of technical proficiency that few domain practitioners are prepared to master. In our approach to pattern mining, patterns are induced indirectly from designers’ experience, as determined by analysing their past projects, the problems encountered and solutions applied in problem rectification. Through the cycles of hermeneutic revisions, the pattern mining process has been refined and ultimately its deficiencies addressed. The hermeneutic method used in the study has been clearly shown in the paper and illustrated with examples drawn from the multimedia domain. The resulting approach to experience elicitation provided opportunities for active participation of multimedia practitioners in capturing and sharing their design experience.

Transitions : experiences of women with type 1 diabetes : Turning points and transitions as experienced by young women with type 1 diabetes in Australia

The relationship among psychosocial stress, coping and metabolic control has a key effect on diabetes clinical outcomes and mental health. Life transitions are peak times of major change within personal and social contexts, which add stress affecting on peoples? problem solving. The thesis describes young women with Type 1 diabetes? perspectives of the problems encountered and how they managed them when they faced turning points and made life transitions. The study identified the women?s health concerns and factors that enhanced or hindered their ability to manage turning points and transitions. A substantive theory that comprised a problem of ?being in the grip of blood glucose levels? (BGLs) and a process termed ?creating stability? to manage life transitions was developed. The state of being in the grip of BGLs was associated with the impact of fluctuating BGLs; responses of other people to the womens? diabetes and the impact of diabetes on other people?s lives. The women managed these problems by engaging in social and psychological strategies helping them to stabilised their lives and feel more in control during life transitions.

Social entrepreneurship and partnerships with regional and remote schools

This paper explores how notions of social entrepreneurship have inspired the author to engage in innovative partnerships with two small rural schools in Central Queensland, Australia. It explores practical ways in which to help rural schools contribute to the transformation of their schools, considering that we are now in an information-based society operating in a postmodern world where change happens quickly and continually. The paper explores the mapping of the journeys undertaken both by the schools and by the author as a university lecturer, and analyses how the concept of social entrepreneurship is used to empower schools with these changes. Two partnerships with local schools are examined in terms of helping the participants become social entrepreneurs by deploying innovative problem solving strategies that can provide ways forward to help to begin to revolutionise the regional and rural education 'industry' and in the process engage regional and rural communities.

Innovation in accounting education

An exploration of a distinctive inter-disciplinary, problem-based, team-based and student centred learning environment: the Inter-disciplinary Industrial Project. Goal-free evaluation shows the IDIP successfully prepares students for the workplace. Case study narratives and outcome oriented conceptual models elaborate a Grounded Theory of Team-based Problem Solving.

The co-residence of children with incarcerated mothers

In a national study this thesis examined the attitudes of key stakeholders about the co-residence of children with incarcerated mothers. A self-administered questionnaire was developed specifically for this research. The majority of respondents were not opposed to child co-residence in principle, conditional on the prison facilities and mothers' parenting competence. The clinical portfolio explored and highlighted practice and organisational issues arising for Victorian correctional services' psychologists when (i) assessing offenders for participation in the "Offence focused problem solving" program, and (ii) formulating treatment plans.Four case studies are presented.

From quality assurance to process improvement : an action research project

This action research project was undertaken at the Casino & District Memorial Hospital in northern N.S.W. during 1995 & 1996. The purpose was to utilise the Action Research frameork to enable the participants to improve their problem solving skills in relation to quality improvement strategies within the Nursing Division.

Environmental education in Thailand : reproduction and reformation

This study was conducted to improve the pedagogy of a particular teacher education course and its teaching and learning activities. It was based on the principles of action research. Results indicate that through group process workshops and the action research projects the research and participants acquired skills in problem-solving and collaborative work.

Abstracting by constructing and revising a ‘partially correct construct’ : a case study

This study draws on data from a broader video-stimulated interview study of the role of optimism in collaborative problem solving. It examines the activity of a Grade 5 student, Tom, whose initial constructing activity resulted in a ‘Partially Correct Construct’. Insistent questioning from another group member pressuring for clarification led to Tom developing a ‘more correct construct’ with further potential for revision. This paper raises questions about influences that can stimulate or inhibit construct refinement.

Contribution of Australian cardiologists, general practitioners and dietitians to adult cardiac patients’ dietary behavioural change

Aim:  To investigate the use of behavioural change techniques by cardiologists, general practitioners and dietitians in adult cardiac patients within 12 months of their cardiac event.
Method:  Quantitative cross-sectional surveys. Frequency analyses were conducted on the respondents' answers to questionnaire items. Chi-squared test of independence compared responses of the three professional groups on the questionnaire items. Analyses of variance were conducted to explore the impact of the independent variables: age, sex and time worked on the behavioural change techniques used by the respondents.
Results:  The respondents included 248 general practitioners (30% response), 189 cardiologists (47% response) and 180 dietitians (60% response). General practitioners and cardiologists acted mainly as advocates for dietary change in the dietary management process. Dietitians provided nutrition knowledge and a range of techniques to assist dietary behavioural change. Cardiologists and dietitians shared little nutrition information with general practitioners (cardiologists with general practitioners = 8%, dietitians with general practitioners = 49%).
Conclusion:  The present study shows that cardiac patients may have insufficient access to knowledge of nutrition and techniques to assist them with dietary behavioural change.