Load forecasting and neural networks : a prediction interval-based perspective

Successfully determining competitive optimal schedules for electricity generation intimately hinges on the forecasts of loads. The nonstationarity and high volatility of loads make their accurate prediction somewhat problematic. Presence of uncertainty in data also significantly degrades accuracy of point predictions produced by deterministic load forecasting models. Therefore, operation planning utilizing these predictions will be unreliable. This paper aims at developing prediction intervals rather than producing exact point prediction. Prediction intervals are theatrically more reliable and practical than predicted values. The delta and Bayesian techniques for constructing prediction intervals for forecasted loads are implemented here. To objectively and comprehensively assess quality of constructed prediction intervals, a new index based on length and coverage probability of prediction intervals is developed. In experiments with real data, and through calculation of global statistics, it is shown that neural network point prediction performance is unreliable. In contrast, prediction intervals developed using the delta and Bayesian techniques are satisfactorily narrow, with a high coverage probability.

A step toward a common measure of organizational justice

Dimensions of the organizational justice construct were examined in a public sector context utilizing an organizational justice measure developed by Colquitt in 2001. Exploratory factor analysis and standard error scree test supported four dimensions of justice as measured by Colquitt's scale. There was evidence of a new factor called procedural-voice justice that taps a possible association with the concept of voice. Future research on organizational justice must investigate its dimensionality based on more representative samples to develop a more globally applicable measure.

Multi-market industrial organizational economic models for the internationalization process by small and medium enterprise construction design service firms

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are critical to strategic initiatives in an economy; however, their contribution to foreign trade is not as significant. SMEs are one of the principal driving forces in economic development. One of the greatest challenges is the internationalization process for longevity rather than seeing the process as initial market entry. The internationalization process research has typically involved four key constructs: market selection, decision to enter, entry modes and factors affecting entry modes. Past research has focused on large manufacturing firms. The export of architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) firms has undergone growth, yet there is still significant opportunity for further growth. The majority of AEC firms are SMEs. Notwithstanding assistance provided through international trade missions, organized export firm support networks and information packages by a burgeoning number of government agencies, there are still perceived barriers to market entry and long-term economic sustainability for SMEs. There are a number of problems faced by SMEs acting in foreign trade. This investigation explores the successful initial internationalization process constructs and identifies unique project-oriented sector characteristics. The study identified similarities and differences between two firms that have been exporting to various localities, including Eastern Europe, Africa, Middle East, UK, Asia and South America, for more than two decades. The similarities and differences were identified within eight major constructs: purpose, firm type, market image and design philosophy, entry mode strategy, institutional arrangement, factors affecting mode of entry, market selection and firm strategy in relation to project selection. The primary reasons for internationalization were associated with the firms' motivations related to growth and financial viability. This article discusses the various internationalization processes and strategies intrinsic to each case study and establishes a detailed set of empirical observations from which to develop further a grounded theoretical model of reflexive capability for the internationalization process. This study contributes to the body of knowledge around the SME AEC design service firm's internationalization process, as a dynamic, evolving and continuously adaptable construct for project-based sectors.

E-book devices and m-commerce : what might be the impact on organizational learning?

E-book devices are changing current organizational practices by providing a source of e-learning, in which organizations and their employees can more easily access information about current business developments that impact on their existing practices. E-book devices (also referred to as e-book readers or e-readers) use electronic ink technology to display written words from books, newspapers, magazines and other documentation. They are portable devices that are the size of a paperback book and are a new technology that has only been mass-marketed to the general population in the past year. Most importantly for an organization is that e-books could transform and will certainly influence their current technology practices and how people communicate and perform their job tasks.

Organizational learning orientation - how can it foster alliance relationships?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the importance of an organization's learning orientation in developing alliance relationships.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on research conducted on organizations involved in alliances as well as practical evidence.

Findings – The paper finds that alliance managers need to focus on developing learning capabilities within their organizations to achieve superior alliance performance.

Practical implications – The paper has practical implications for managers involved in alliances as it shows the importance of an organization focusing on learning. With the relatively small number of alliance relationships that succeed, it is important that managers harness their organization's learning potential in the context of an alliance.

Originality/value – The paper is unique as it highlights the importance of an organization's learning orientation in an alliance context.

How does organizational culture affect IS effectiveness : a culture-information system fit framework

Previous research has examined the impact of organizational culture(OC) on the implementation of many information systems. However, there is a lack of overall picture on how OC affects the effectiveness of different information systems differently. Based on the Competing Value Framework, this paper proposes a comprehensive framework to explain how the fit between organizational culture and types of IS results in different types of IS effectiveness. This framework can be used by managers to create a proper organizational culture that is compatible with the use of specific information systems.

A model of organizational ethics education

Purpose – This paper aims to propose a model of ethics education for corporate organizations framed as an holistic approach to the problem of how to teach ethics.

Design/methodology/approach – As a conceptual/viewpoint piece, this paper recognizes that for ethics education to be successful, individuals and corporations must have an appreciation of their role in the society at large. In addition, there needs to be preparedness on the part of the corporation to engage in an ethical manner with the marketplace with which it interacts.

Findings – Ethics education should not exist in a vacuum, that is just within the organization, but it should reflect the values of the organization as they impact upon and are impacted upon by society in general.

Research/limitations/implications – This model is predicated on a belief that organizations must craft their ethics education program with as much care and enthusiasm as they craft their strategic plan. The employees are the organization's representatives and they need to be made as clear as one can make them as to the ethical philosophy of the company and what is expected of them. Adults have a capacity for greater reasoning and reflection on their life experiences than children and thus the concept of “andragogy” provides a more satisfactory method to fashion education programs for adults than some more traditional methods that focus on training and not education.

Practical implications – When considering the ethics education of its employees, corporations need to place that education in context as it relates to the organization and the wider society as a whole. It is suggested that an ethics education program needs to provide a framework for understanding the concepts of ethics and moral development. Using this framework as the basis for the education offered, the education program is then expanded into an examination of a range of ethical issues presented in a variety of ways.

Originality/value – This paper proposes an integrated way to approach ethics education that ensures that the antecedents of the program are considered in the context of the ethics of individuals, the society and in turn the organization, hence the holistic approach.