Trade and industrial policy in developing countries : what scope for interfaces between agent-based models and computable-general equilibrium models

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

Investigating housing supply and monetary policy under global economic turbulence

This research has contributed to literature by identifying the impacts of monetary policy and global economic turbulence on the supply side of the housing sector under a vector error correction model. The research outcomes provided policy makers with an insight to change Australia's housing shortage and declining housing affordability.

Integrating agriculture and food policy to achieve sustainable peri-urban fruit and vegetable production in Victoria, Australia

Efforts to increase fruit and vegetable consump­tion are a significant aspect of national approaches to preventive health. However, policy frameworks for increasing fruit and vegetable consumption rarely take an integrated food-systems approach that includes a focus on production. In this policy analysis and commentary we examine fruit and vegetable production in peri-urban areas of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia, and highlight the significance of emerging environmental and eco­nomic pressures on fruit and vegetable production. This examination will be of interest to other locations around the world also experiencing pressure on their peri-urban agriculture. These pressures suggest that the availability and afforda­bility of fruit and vegetable supplies cannot be taken for granted, and that future initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable consumption should include a focus on sustainable production. Threats to production that include environmental pressures, together with the loss and cost of peri-urban agri­cultural land and a cost-price squeeze due to rising input costs and low farm-gate prices, act in combi­nation to threaten the viability of the Victorian fruit and vegetable industries. We pro­pose that policy initiatives to increase fruit and vegetable consumption should include measures to address the pressures facing production, and that the most effective policy responses are likely to be integrated approaches that aim to increase fruit and vegetable availability and affordability through innovative solutions to problems of production and distribu­tion. Some brief examples of potential integrated policy solutions are identified to illu­strate the possibilities and stimulate discussion.

Popular consent and foreign policy choices : war against the Philippines and covert action in Chile

It is usually assumed that US policymakers need to generate popular consent in order to undertake regime change against another state. This article explores the ways in which contextual factors such as the joint democracy effect, popular values and public moods influenced efforts by elites in the United States to generate popular consent for regime change in the Philippines and Chile. Against the backdrop of the Vietnam War, the United States undertook covert action in Chile due to public recognition of the target state's democratic credentials and a public mood opposed to further military ventures. In contrast, the absence of a strong joint democracy effect, a national mood infused with romantic nationalism qua militarism and social Darwinism facilitated efforts by US elites to generate consent for the invasion and occupation of the Philippines. Subsequently, this article contributes to understandings of the domestic-level factors that influence foreign policy decisions.

Analysing the transmission pattern within the framework of housing supply and monetary policy in Australia

Housing supply is one of important components of the housing sector. Compared with an increasingly strong housing demand, the growth rates of total housing stock in Australia have exhibited a downward trend since the end of the 1990s whilst the significant adjustments in the Australian monetary policy were being implemented. This research aims to estimate the nature of the relationship between housing supply and monetary policy by a vector error correction model. According to the empirical results, a transmission pattern comprised of the indicators associated with housing supply and monetary policy can be identified, which suggests that there is a significant interrelationship between monetary policy and the supply side of the housing sector in Australia.

Aspects of parenting and family functioning associated with obesity in adolescent refugees and migrants from African backgrounds living in Australia

Objective: To investigate the relationship between parenting style and family functioning, and BMI, among adolescent migrants and refugees from African countries.

Method: A total of 104 parents and their adolescent offspring completed questionnaires assessing the variables of interest, and anthropometric data were collected from them.

Results: Parents reported higher maternal involvement, lower levels of paternal involvement, higher levels of positive parenting, greater use of ‘other’ (non-corporal) discipline styles, greater satisfaction and better communication than did their offspring. Parents also reported greater family cohesion and flexibility than adolescents, and saw their families as more enmeshed and more rigid. Parenting style and family functioning were not strong predictors of BMI according to either report. For adolescents, inconsistent discipline and lack of parental supervision accounted for significant variance in BMI.

Conclusions: Inconsistent discipline and lack of parental supervision may be related to adolescent BMI. Further studies with larger samples are required to confirm these relationships with the view to informing obesity prevention programs for this target population.

Implications: Prevention or intervention programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity need to consider parenting style in their design.

Occupational light vehicle-use: a research driven strategy to improve surveillance and inform policy

Background: Occupational light vehicles (OLV) are light passenger and loadshaped vehicles used for work. The OLV-associated injury burden is as great as that of heavy vehicle users, but has been largely ignored by occupational health and safety (OHS) regulators. Contingent employment growth has accentuated existing gaps in the policy framework between OHS and road-safety. Frequent burden shifting from OHS to road-related health systems undermines the evidence base necessary to inform policy development. Aims: To provide evidence-based recommendations for the collection of OLVuser surveillance data and to underpin OHS procedures and policies for OLVusers. Method: The literature was systematically analyzed to identify OLV-user OHS policy and practice gaps. Strategies to improve and co-ordinate surveillance systems were developed to address the identified limitations. Results: Gaps were identified in OLV-user legislation, data collection, and riskmanagement. These require strategies to improve identification of all OLV-users and to co-ordinate surveillance and OHS practice. Discussion: Contemporary reform of road and OHS, policy, provides a timely opportunity for the implementation of strategic responses to this serious road safety and occupational, public health problem.

A good place to raise a family? Comparing parents, service-providers', and media perspectives of the inner and outer suburban areas of Melbourne

In Australia, the suburbs have historically been the favoured place to raise children. However this is being challenged both by social change and government policy encouraging innerurban renewal. We examined how inner-urban areas compare with more traditional suburban locations as places to raise a family. Recognising that there are many influences on perceptions of place, we included the opinions of parents, service-providers and the media in the two locations.

Research focused on two municipalities in Melbourne, one located >25km and the other <10km from the CBD. Themes were obtained and compared from in-depth interviews with parents, serviceproviders and analysis of municipality-specific and state-wide newspaper articles.

Service provision was the only theme common at all levels of analysis. For all other themes, differences occurred between perspectives of service-providers, media and parents, as well as between the two residential locations. These in-depth snapshots on the challenges and rewards of raising children in different urban locations can help inform government in planning healthy neighbourhoods that better serve the needs of contemporary Australian families.

Marine educators: Linking personal commitment, education and public policy

This thesis reports on a study of the experiences and beliefs of a sample of marine educators from both Canada and Australia. It investigates the educators’ narratives in order to explore their role in regards to their interactions and relationships between and with policy, community and education within the marine education context.