126 resultados para Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)


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The direct method of assessing “unrealistic optimism” employs a question of the form, “Compared with the average person, what is the chance that event X will occur to you?” It has been proposed that when individuals construct their responses to this question (direct-estimates) they focus much more strongly on estimates of their own risk (self-estimates) than on estimates of the average person's risk (other-estimates). A challenge to this proposal comes from findings that interventions that alter other-estimates also change direct-estimates. Employing a novel intervention technique, we tested the possibility that such interventions may indirectly also change self-estimates and that this is what accounts for their effect on direct-estimates. Study 1 (n = 58) showed that an intervention which was designed to (and did) affect other-estimates also affected self-estimates, while Study 2 (n = 101) showed that it affected direct-estimates. Study 3 (n = 79) confirmed that we could modify the intervention so as to maintain the effect on other-estimates, but eliminate that on self-estimates. Study 4 (n = 112) demonstrated that when this was done, there was no longer any effect on direct-estimates. The findings are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed largely just out of self-estimates. Implications for heath education programs are discussed.

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This article explores the similarities and differences between Canadian and Australian university teachers’ face-to-face and online teaching approaches and philosophies. It presents perspectives on teaching face-to-face and online in two comparable Canadian and Australian universities, both of which offer instruction in these two modes. The key research question was to determine if moving from face-to-face instruction to on-line teaching results in new teaching approaches or in a creative blend of those developed within each teaching modality. Qualitative data were collected using an open-ended survey, which asked participants for their thoughts on their face-to-face (f2f) and online teaching experiences. Quantitative data were collected using the “Teaching Perspectives Inventory,” which assessed participants’ teaching approaches and philosophies in terms of their beliefs, intentions, and actions. The authors’ conclusions address the issue of assisting teachers to successfully make the transition from traditional teacher-centred to newly emerging learner-centred teaching approaches in distributed classrooms.

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Objectives.
To describe the design and baseline results of an evaluation of the Western Australian government's pedestrian-friendly subdivision design code (Liveable Neighborhood (LN) Guidelines).
Methods.

Baseline results (2003–2005) from a longitudinal study of people (n = 1813) moving into new housing developments: 18 Liveable, 11 Hybrid and 45 Conventional (i.e., LDs, HDs and CDs respectively) are presented including usual recreational and transport-related walking undertaken within and outside the neighborhood, and 7-day pedometer steps.
Results.

At baseline, more participants walked for recreation and transport within the neighborhood (52.6%; 36.1% respectively), than outside the neighborhood (17.7%; 13.2% respectively). Notably, only 20% of average total duration of walking (128.4 min/week (SD159.8)) was transport related and within the neighborhood. There were few differences between the groups' demographic, psychosocial and perceived neighborhood environmental characteristics, pedometer steps, or the type, amount and location of self-reported walking (p > 0.05). However, asked what factors influenced their choice of housing development, more participants moving into LDs reported aspects of their new neighborhood's walkability as important (p < 0.05).
Conclusions.

The baseline results underscore the desirability of incorporating behavior and context-specific measures and value of longitudinal designs to enable changes in behavior, attitudes, and urban form to be monitored, while adjusting for baseline residential location preferences.

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Distributed Denial of Service attacks is one of the most challenging areas to deal with in Security. Not only do security managers have to deal with flood and vulnerability attacks. They also have to consider whether they are from legitimate or malicious attackers. In our previous work we developed a framework called bodyguard, which is to help security software developers from the current serialized paradigm, to a multi-core paradigm. In this paper, we update our research work by moving our bodyguard paradigm, into our new Ubiquitous Multi-Core Framework. From this shift, we show a marked improvement from our previous result of 20% to 110% speedup performance with an average cost of 1.5 ms. We also conducted a second series of experiments, which we trained up Neural Network, and tested it against actual DDoS attack traffic. From these experiments, we were able to achieve an average of 93.36%, of this attack traffic.

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This paper investigates the behaviour of US stock prices using an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The TAR model is applied to monthly stock price (NYSE Common Stocks) data for the US for the period 1964:06 to 2003:04. Amongst our main results, we find that the US stock price is a nonlinear series that is characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

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The goal of this paper is to examine evidence for co-integration between nominal exchange rates for Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy and France (G6) vis-à-vis the US dollar, and the relative price ratios using monthly data over the period 1973:01 to 1997:04. Motivated by the fact that exchange rate adjustment may be asymmetric, we allowed for asymmetric adjustment in exchange rates by using the threshold autoregressive model and the momentum threshold autoregressive model. We do not find any evidence of a co-integrating relationship; hence, we fail to establish long-run purchasing power parity.

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While the causes of obesity are well known traditional education and treatment strategies do not appear to be making an impact. One solution as part of a broader complimentary set of strategies may be regulatory intervention at local government level to create environments for healthy nutrition and increased physical activity. Semi structured interviews were conducted with representatives of local government in Australia. Factors most likely to facilitate policy change were those supported by external funding, developed from an evidence base and sensitive to community and market forces. Barriers to change included a perceived or real lack of power to make change and the complexity of the legislative framework. The development of a systematic evidence base to provide clear feedback on the size and scope of the obesity epidemic at a local level, coupled with cost benefit analysis for any potential regulatory intervention, are crucial to developing a regulatory environment which creates the physical and social environment required to prevent obesity.

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The improvement of the performance of the construction industry through the improved performance of the supply chains that make up the various sectors is a difficult task and one that has had considerable international debate (London, 2005). The idea of using the supply chain concept as a normative model to improve firm behaviour and thus ultimately industry performance through the development of supply chain clusters or integrated supply chains has been discussed in many public sector policy documents and in the academic research community since the late 1990s (London, 2005). However it has been difficult to see any real examples where this concept has had any major impact – or where the improvements have been measured and/or monitored.

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There has been a renewed focus in recent decades on collaborative approaches in community-based public health research and interventions. This is an important grounding for addressing the needs of culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities. But how well do we as researchers prepare for the complexities of working with CALD communities? And what sort of support do we need to meet the challenges of the task? Cultural competence refers to the extent to which researchers, practitioners and organisations have the necessary skills, knowledge, attitudes and policies to work effectively in cross-cultural situations. The shift towards cultural competence in public health is evidenced by the development of policies and guidelines by government bodies and leading research institutions in countries such as Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand. This chapter will draw on these guidelines, on models of cultural competency used in welfare and health service delivery, and on collaborative research approaches. A framework for moving towards cultural competence in public health research and health promotion interventions will be discussed, drawing case study examples from the co-authors' community-based experiences. This will highlight the complexities but also the importance of adopting culturally competent strategies in public health research and health promotion interventions. The need for supporting government and funding structures will also be proposed .

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