An interdependence analysis of Australian house prices using variance decomposition

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the interdependencies of the house price growth rates in Australian capital cities.
Design/methodology/approach - A vector autoregression model and variance decomposition are introduced to estimate and interpret the interdependences among the growth rates of regional house prices in Australia.
Findings - The results suggest the eight capital cities can be divided into three groups: Sydney and Melbourne; Canberra, Adelaide and Brisbane; and Hobart, Perth and Darwin.
Originality/value - Based on the structural vector autoregression model, this research develops an innovative interdependence analysis approach of regional house prices based on a variance decomposition method.

Bargaining in the shadow of the Law - using utility functions to support legal negotiation

Most dispute resolution is settled by negotiation rather than litigation. However, such bargaining often occurs in the shadow of the law. To help support interest-based negotiation, we explore the use of utility functions to support negotiation analysis. We discuss in detail a utility function we have developed in the area of family-law mediation. This function is currently being used as the basis of an online dispute resolution system.

Investigating relationships of construction prices in Australia using cointegration analysis

Research on construction prices is significant for contractors and traders. A comprehensive understanding of construction prices may influence crucial decisions in business operation and arbitrage activities. This study focuses on the cointegration relationships of regional construction prices in Australia by using a range of econometric techniques including the stationarity test, the Engle-Granger cointegration approach examines the long run equilibrium relationships within the regional markets, and the error correction models explore the short run disequilibrium relationships. Finds of this study reveal that the economic system in which the construction industry participants operate is characterized by a highly competitive, integrated marketplace, Especially in Melbourne and Sydney. But exclude Northern Territory and Queensland. Furthermore, the results of long term relationships estimation suggest that there are 15 pairs of regional construction prices have long term equilibrium relationships. Additionally, the causalities and diffusion among the construction price indices in six states and two territories of Australia are estimated in this study. These outcomes suggest that causal links between regions mainly exist among adjoining states.

An economic analysis of construction industries producer prices in Australia

Research on construction prices is significant for contractors and traders. A comprehensive understanding of construction prices may influence crucial decisions in business operation and arbitrage activities. This study focuses on the cointegration relationships of regional construction prices in Australia by using a range of econometric techniques including the stationarity test, the Engle-Granger cointegration approach and error correction model. The cointegration relationships amongst the regional construction prices are detected in this study. The application of the Engle-Granger cointegration approach examines the long run equilibrium relationships within the regional markets, and the error correction models explore the short run disequilibrium relationships. Results of this study suggest that the economic system in which construction industry participants operate is characterised by a highly competitive integrated marketplace. Furthermore, the causalities and diffusion patterns among the construction price indices in six states and two territories of Australia are drawn by the cointegration analysis. These outcomes reveal a pattern of diffusion paths and network linkages among the six states and two territories, and then expose the regional price linkages.

Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?

This paper considers the issue of whether shocks to ten commodity prices (gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron ore, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc) are persistent or transitory. We use two recently developed unit root tests, namely the Narayan and Popp (NP) [14] test and the Liu and Narayan (LN) [26] test. Both tests allow for two structural breaks in the data series. Using the NP test, we are able to reject the unit root null for iron ore and tin. Using the GARCH-based unit root test of LN, we are able to reject the unit root null for five commodity prices (iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin). Our findings, thus, suggest that only shocks to gold, silver, platinum, aluminum, and copper are persistent.

Spatial and temporal variation of house prices

This thesis originally developed a spatial and temporal analysis approach. This approach was applied to investigate the variation of house prices in Australia. The findings discovered the behaviours of house prices and the interconnections between them across the Australian cities.

Volatility decomposition of Australian housing prices

This study examines the volatility pattern of Australian housing prices. The approach for this research was to decompose the conditional volatility of housing prices into a “permanent” component and a “transitory” component via a Component-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (C-GARCH) model. The results demonstrate that the shock impact on the short-run component (transitory) is much larger than the long-run component (permanent), whereas the persistence of transitory shocks is much less than permanent shocks. Moreover, both permanent and transitory volatility components have different determinants. The results provide important new insights into the volatility pattern of housing prices which has direct implications for investment in housing by owner-occupiers and investors.

A panel regression method for quantifying the convergence of house prices

The convergence among house prices has attracted much attention from researchers. Previous research mainly utilised a time-series regression method to investigate convergences of house prices, which may ignore the heterogeneity of houses across cities. This research developed a panel regression method, by which the heterogeneity of house prices can be captured. Seemingly unrelated regression estimators were also adapted to deal with the contemporary correlations across cities. Investigation of the convergence among house prices in the Australian capital cities was carried out by using the developed panel regression method. Results suggested that house prices converge in Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart but diverge in Darwin.