Leading as emotional management work in high risk times: the counterintuitive impulses of performativity and passion

This paper explores, through a case study of educational restructuring in Victoria, Australia, how school leaders in a public education system in Australia mediate reform discourses emphasizing managerial and market accountability and the emotional and messy work of teaching and leading. These accountability exercises were often seen by teachers and principals to be distractions; more about reporting and recording, rather than addressing substantive educational issues. They simultaneously distanced teachers and leaders from the 'real' and 'passionate' work of education while appropriating and commodifying teachers' and leaders' emotions and desires to do well. School leaders were expected to manage the emotional performances of their students, parents and colleagues as well as themselves. They also managed the emotions arising from the dissonance between teachers' professional and personal commitment to making a difference for all students based on principles of equity and the performativity requirements based on efficiency and narrowly defined and predetermined criteria of effectiveness and success that often undermined improvement for many students. In that sense performativity ('being seen to be good') and passion (for 'doing good') often produced counterintuitive impulses.

Integrating insurance services, trust and risk mechanisms into multi-agent systems

In multi-agent systems, there is often the need for an agent to cooperate with others so as to ensure that a given task is achieved timely and cost effectively. Currently multi-agent systems maximize this through mechanisms such as coalition formation, trust and risk assessments, etc. In this paper, we incorporate the concept of insurance with trust and risk mechanisms in multi-agent systems. The novelty of this proposal is that it ensures continuous sharing of resources while encouraging expected utility to be maximized in a dynamic environment. Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of our approach.

Trading in open marketplace using trust and risk

In this paper, we propose buying and selling models for agents to trade in the open multi-agent marketplace. Unlike auctions, we take into account of the fact that agents trading in such open environments has to maximize their profits and at the same time, protect themselves from fraud and deception. We attempt to address this issue by incorporating the element of trust and risk management into our proposed buying and selling model. During buying, agents learn to select their partners based on the trustworthiness of the potential partner as well as its personal risk attitude. During selling, agents learn to increase the chances of winning a deal by adjusting their profit rate, which is a measure that considers both trust and risk. The novelty of this proposal is that it ensures agents continuing to seek maximum expected utility in a dynamic trading environment. Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of our approach.

Evaluating public risk preferences in forest land-use choices using multi-attribute utility theory

Forest policy decisions inherently involve multiple attributes and risk and uncertainty as they largely deal with complex biological, ecological, and socio-political systems. Identifying risk preferences and quantifying their inter-relationships and tradeoffs are useful in formulating better forest policy. Often, technocrats and experts deal with risky decisions, but ideally, stakeholder risk characteristics should be explicitly considered in making policy decisions. This paper analysed societal risk preferences on public forest land-use attributes using multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). The results indicate significant risk-averse behaviour towards old-growth forest conservation and forest-based recreation but less risk-averse behaviour towards native timber extraction. Overall, the respondents preferred a more conservative forest land-use option, which is consistent with their risk attitudes. The method provides insights into risk preferences of forest stakeholders, which could lead to better understanding of forest management conflicts. Moreover, the method explicitly distinguishes the technical and value components of the decision and is useful in unravelling public risk preferences in multiple-use forest planning situations.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for lung cancer with low dose spiral CT (computed tomography) in the Australian setting

Introduction:
Low dose spiral computed tomography (CT) is a sensitive screening tool for lung cancer that is currently being evaluated in both non-randomised studies and randomised controlled trials.
Methods:
We conducted a quantitative decision analysis using a Markov model to determine whether, in the Australian setting, offering spiral CT screening for lung cancer to high risk individuals would be cost-effective compared with current practice. This exploratory analysis was undertaken predominantly from the perspective of the government as third-party funder. In the base-case analysis, the costs and health outcomes (life-years saved and quality-adjusted life years) were calculated in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 male current smokers for two alternatives: (1) screen for lung cancer with annual CT for 5 years starting at age 60 year and treat those diagnosed with cancer or (2) no screening and treat only those who present with symptomatic cancer.
Results:
For male smokers aged 60–64 years, with an annual incidence of lung cancer of 552 per 100,000, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $57,325 per life-year saved and $105,090 per QALY saved. For females aged 60–64 years with the same annual incidence of lung cancer, the cost-effectiveness ratio was $51,001 per life-year saved and $88,583 per QALY saved. The model was used to examine the relationship between efficacy in terms of the expected reduction in lung cancer mortality at 7 years and cost-effectiveness. In the base-case analysis lung cancer mortality was reduced by 27% and all cause mortality by 2.1%. Changes in the estimated proportion of stage I cancers detected by screening had the greatest impact on the efficacy of the intervention and the cost-effectiveness. The results were also sensitive to assumptions about the test performance characteristics of CT scanning, the proportion of lung cancer cases overdiagnosed by screening, intervention rates for benign disease, the discount rate, the cost of CT, the quality of life in individuals with early stage screen-detected cancer and disutility associated with false positive diagnoses. Given current knowledge and practice, even under favourable assumptions, reductions in lung cancer mortality of less than 20% are unlikely to be cost-effective, using a value of $50,000 per life-year saved as the threshold to define a “cost-effective” intervention.
Conclusion:
The most feasible scenario under which CT screening for lung cancer could be cost-effective would be if very high-risk individuals are targeted and screening is either highly effective or CT screening costs fall substantially.

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

An investigation on the risk perceptions of Australian property fund Managers

Recent empirical and analytical studies have demonstrated that downside risk appears as an intuitively appealing risk measure in which it is more consistent with investors’ behaviour. Conversely, qualitative studies into the behaviour of investors, particularly real estate investors, have been relatively limited. This study seeks to address this shortfall and aims to examine the perceptions of property fund managers towards risk. A survey was conducted to investigate the risk perceptions of property fund managers and determine whether they only require compensation for bearing with higher downside risk. The acceptance level of downside risk is also examined. The findings reveal that downside risk is more consistent with how investors individually perceive risk. However, there is also a gap between theoretical assertions and practice in which downside risk is not commonly used in the practice. The results give an insight into the knowledge base of property investors towards risk, particularly downside risk.

Behaviours of property investors: an investigation on the risk perceptions of Australian property fund managers

Recent finance and real estate empirical and analytical studies have demonstrated that downside risk appears as an intuitively appealing risk measure in which it is more consistent with investors' behaviours. Conversely, qualitative studies into the behaviours of investors, particularly real estate investors, have been relatively limited. This study seeks to address this shortfall and aims to examine the behaviours of property fund managers towards downside risk. A survey was conducted in order to investigate the risk perceptions of property fund managers and determine whether they only require compensation for bearing with higher downside risk. The acceptance level of downside risk in the property funds industry in Australia is also examined. The findings reveal that downside risk is more consistent with how investors individually perceive risk. However, there is also a gap between theoretical assertions and practice in which downside risk is not commonly used in the practice. The results give an insight into the knowledge base of property investors towards downside risk.

Cardiovascular risk prediction model development and assessment

The aim of this article is to review the development and assessment of cardiovascular risk prediction models and to discuss the predictive value of a risk factor as well as to introduce new assessment methods to evaluate a risk prediction model. Many cardiovascular risk prediction models have been developed during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an existing model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has traditionally been used to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has its limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker. New assessment methods are being developed to appropriately assess a risk prediction model and they will be gradually used in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Corporate governance, firm characteristics and risk management committee formation in Australian companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine how a risk management committee (RMC), as a newly evolving sub-committee of the board of directors, functions as a key governance support mechanism in the oversight an organisation's risk management strategies, policies and processes. However, empirical evidence on the factors associated with the existence and the type of RMCs remains scant.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an agency theory perspective, this study investigates the association between board factors such as proportion of non-executive directors, Chief Executive Officer duality, and board size; as well as, other firm-related factors (e.g. auditor type, industry, leverage, and complexity), and the existence of a RMC, and the type of RMC (namely, a separate RMC versus one that is combined with the audit committee). Data was collected from the annual reports of the top 300 Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)-listed companies.

Findings – The results, based on logistic regression analyses, indicate that RMCs tend to exist in companies with an independent board chairman and larger boards. Further, the results also indicate that in comparison to companies with a combined RMC and audit committee, those with a separate RMC are more likely to have larger boards, higher financial reporting risk and lower organisational complexity.

Research limitations/implications – Data limited to top 200 top ASX-listed companies, thus restricting generalisability of the results.

Originality/value – The findings of this study provide additional information on the use and design of RMCs in a voluntary setting.

Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne program

Background : The Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) program matches vulnerable young people with a trained, supervised adult volunteer as mentor. The young people are typically seriously disadvantaged, with multiple psychosocial problems.

Methods : Threshold analysis was undertaken to determine whether investment in the program was a worthwhile use of limited public funds. The potential cost savings were based on US estimates of life-time costs associated with high-risk youth who drop out-of-school and become adult criminals. The intervention was modelled for children aged 10–14 years residing in Melbourne in 2004.

Results : If the program serviced 2,208 of the most vulnerable young people, it would cost AUD 39.5 M. Assuming 50% were high-risk, the associated costs of their adult criminality would be AUD 3.3 billion. To break even, the program would need to avert high-risk behaviours in only 1.3% (14/1,104) of participants.

Conclusion : This indicative evaluation suggests that the BBBS program represents excellent 'value for money'.

Risk assessment of child-victim sex offenders for extended supervision in New Zealand

Recently enacted legislation in New Zealand, the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, allows for the imposition of up to 10 years of supervision in the community for child-victim sex offenders following their release from prison. The Act requires reports to be written specifically assessing the risk of sexual re-offending against children. This study examined the application of actuarial measures used by the New Zealand Department of Corrections in these assessments, including a computer-scored instrument based on static factors (the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale; ASRS) and a clinically-based judgement of dynamic risk factors (the SONAR). It was expected that a conservative approach would be taken in making recommendations for or against extended periods of supervision, such that a high score on either measure would predict a recommendation for extended supervision. It was found, however, that a more individualized approach was often taken, whereby a baseline assessment of risk as predicted by the ASRS was adjusted by clinicians based on SONAR ratings. Implications for the practice of risk assessment in sexual re-offending are discussed.

Estimating expected excess returns using historical and option-implied volatility

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod.

The money laundering risk posed by low-risk financial products in South Africa : findings and guidelines

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the level and nature of criminal abuse of financial products that are classified as posing a low anti-money laundering/combating of financing of terrorists (AML/CFT) risk in South Africa to determine the effectiveness of the simplified due diligence measures that apply to these products.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents empirical research on the views of bank officials and law enforcement officials regarding the criminal abuse of South African financial products that are subject to simplified customer due diligence controls.

Findings – South Africa's AML/CFT laws allow certain deposit-taking institutions and money remitters to implement simplified customer due diligence measures in relation to specific low-risk products that are mainly designed to allow previously unbanked persons to access financial services. The paper finds that the products have been abused by criminals but that the incidence of such abuse and the amounts involved are low. The paper investigates possible weaknesses in the current system that allow limited criminal abuse to occur. It concludes with a number of guidelines that emerge from the study and are of value to regulators that wish to implement a similar system.

Originality/value – The South African AML/CFT scheme in relation to low-risk products is of interest to many international regulators that are grappling with the interplay between effective AML/CFT controls and the impact of strict controls on the ability of socially and economically excluded persons to access appropriate financial services. This paper provides evidence that appropriately designed controls can facilitate financial inclusion while limiting the risk of criminal abuse.

Identifying and managing low money laundering risk : perspectives on FATF's risk-based guidance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate Financial Action Task Force (FATF)'s risk-based guidance to combat money laundering and terrorist financing to determine its approach to the identification and management of low-risk providers, products and transactions.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses the relevant FATF recommendations and its guidance notes and reflects on key questions for regulators and financial institutions.

Findings – FATF has not defined “risk” for purposes of the risk-based approach. The absence of a clear definition complicates the identification of low-risk products. FATF do provide an example of a risk matrix that can be used to identify low-risk banks, but the example is based on assumptions and generalisations that are not sustainable. In addition, it identifies certain low-value transactions as “low risk” transactions. The paper reflects on the role of value as an indicator of risk and concludes with a number of suggestions to clarify the conceptual framework.

Originality/value – Low-risk products and transactions are often overlooked because the risk-based approach focuses attention on high-risk matters. Low-risk products are however crucial to the efforts to increase financial inclusion. The paper identifies gaps in the current conceptual framework and indicates ways in which they can be addressed.