Driver behaviour prediction for motion simulators using changepoint segmentation

Driving phenomenon is a repetitive process, that permits sequential learning under identifying the proper change periods. Sequential filtering is widely used for tracking and prediction of state dynamics. However, it suffers at abrupt changes, which cause sudden incremental prediction error. We provide a sequential filtering approach using online Bayesian detection of change points to decrease prediction error generally, and specifically at abrupt changes. The approach learns from optimally detected segments for identifying driving behaviour. Change points detection is done by the Pruned Exact Linear Time algorithm. Computational cost of our approach is bounded by the cost of the implemented sequential filter. This computational performance is suitable to the online nature of motion simulator's delay reduction. The approach was tested on a simulated driving scenario using Vortex by CM Labs. The state dimensions are simulated 2D space coordinates, and velocity. Particle filter was used for online sequential filtering. Prediction results show that change-point detection improves the quality of state estimation compared to traditional sequential filters, and is more suitable for predicting behavioural activities.

Prediction of a superhard carbon-rich C-N compound comparable to diamond

Until now, it has been a challenge both in experiment and in theory to design new superhard materials with high hardness values that are comparable to that of diamond. Here, by using first-principles calculations, we have introduced two new phases for a carbon-rich C-N compound with stoichiometry C3N, which is predicted to be energetically stable or metastable with respect to graphite and solid N2 at ambient pressure. It is found that C3N has a layered structure containing graphitic layers sandwiched with freely rotated N2 molecules. The layer-structured C3N is calculated to transform into a three-dimensional C2221 structure at 9 GPa with sp3-hybridized C atoms and sp2-hybridized N atoms. Phonon dispersion and elastic constant calculations reveal the dynamical and mechanical stability of the C2221 phase of C3N at ambient pressure. Significantly, first-principles ideal strength calculations indicate that the C2221 phase of C3N is a superhard material with an estimated Vickers hardness (∼76 GPa) comparable to that of diamond (60-120 GPa). The present results shed strong light on designing new superhard materials in the C-N system.

Framework to improve the application of theory in ecology and conservation

Ecological theory often fails applied ecologists in three ways: (1) Theory has little predictive value but is nevertheless applied in conservation with a risk of perverse outcomes, (2) individual theories have limited heuristic value for planning and framing research because they are narrowly focused, and (3) theory can lead to poor communication among scientists and hinder scientific progress through inconsistent use of terms and widespread redundancy. New approaches are therefore needed that improve the distillation, communication, and application of ecological theory. We advocate three approaches to resolve these problems: (1) improve prediction by reviewing theory across case studies to develop contingent theory where possible, (2) plan new research using a checklist of phenomena to avoid the narrow heuristic value of individual theories, and (3) improve communication among scientists by rationalizing theory associated with particular phenomena to purge redundancy and by developing definitions for key terms. We explored the extent to which these problems and solutions have been featured in two case studies of long-term ecological research programs in forests and plantations of southeastern Australia. We found that our main contentions were supported regarding the prediction, planning, and communication limitations of ecological theory. We illustrate how inappropriate application of theory can be overcome or avoided by investment in boundary-spanning actions. The case studies also demonstrate how some of our proposed solutions could work, particularly the use of theory in secondary case studies after developing primary case studies without theory. When properly coordinated and implemented through a widely agreed upon and broadly respected international collaboration, the framework that we present will help to speed the progress of ecological research and lead to better conservation decisions.