Birch pollen rupture and the release of aerosols of respirable allergens

Backgound Birch pollen allergens have been implicated as asthma triggers; however, pollen grains are too large to reach the lower airways where asthmatic reactions occur. Respirable-sized particles containing birch pollen allergens have been detected in air filters, especially after rainfall but the source of these particles has remained speculative.

Objective To determine the processes by which birch pollen allergens become airborne particles of respirable size with the potential to contribute to airways inflammation.

Methods Branches with attached male catkins were harvested and placed in a controlled emission chamber. Filtered dry air was passed through the chamber until the anthers opened, then they were humidified for 5 h and air-dried again. Flowers were disturbed by wind generated from a small electric fan. Released particles were counted, measured and collected for immuno-labelling and high-resolution microscopy.

Results Birch pollen remains on the dehisced anther and can rupture in high humidity and moisture. Fresh pollen takes as long as 3 h to rupture in water. Drying winds released an aerosol of particles from catkins. These were fragments of pollen cytoplasm that ranged in size from 30 nm to 4 μm and contained Bet v 1 allergens.

Conclusion When highly allergenic birch trees are flowering and exposed to moisture followed by drying winds they can produce particulate aerosols containing pollen allergens. These particles are small enough to deposit in the peripheral airways and have the potential to induce an inflammatory response.

Determination of the embedded lengths of electricity timber poles utilizing flexural wave generated from impacts

Round timbers are extensively used as utility poles in Australia for electricity distribution and communication. Lack of information on their conditions results in great difficulties on asset management for industries. Despite the development of various non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques for evaluating the condition of piles, few NDTs are reported for applications on timber poles. This paper addresses challenges and issues on development of NDTs for condition assessment and embedded length of timber poles. For this paper, it is mainly focusing on determining the embedded length of the pole considering loss of the sufficient embedment length is a main factor compromising capacity and safety of timber poles. Since it is impractical for generating longitudinal waves by impacting from the top of poles, utilizing flexural wave from side impact on poles becomes attractive. However, the flexural wave is known by its highly dispersive nature. In this paper, one dimensional wave theory, guided wave theory and advanced signal processing techniques have been introduced in order to provide a solution for the problem. Two signal processing techniques, namely short kernel method and continuous wavelet transform, have been investigated for processing flexural wave signals to evaluate wave velocity and embedment length of timber poles in service.

Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation

Prediction intervals (PIs) are a promising tool for quantification of uncertainties associated with point forecasts of wind power. However, construction of PIs using parametric methods is questionable, as forecast errors do not follow a standard distribution. This paper proposes a nonparametric method for construction of reliable PIs for neural network (NN) forecasts. A lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is adapted for construction of PIs for wind power generation. A new framework is proposed for synthesizing PIs generated using an ensemble of NN models in the LUBE method. This is done to guard against NN performance instability in generating reliable and informative PIs. A validation set is applied for short listing NNs based on the quality of PIs. Then, PIs constructed using filtered NNs are aggregated to obtain combined PIs. Performance of the proposed method is examined using data sets taken from two wind farms in Australia. Simulation results indicate that the quality of combined PIs is significantly superior to the quality of PIs constructed using NN models ranked and filtered by the validation set.

An approach for wind power integration using demand side resources

Renewable energy resources, especially wind power, are expected to provide a considerable portion of the world energy requirements in the near future. Large-scale wind power penetration impacts the electricity industry in many aspects and raises a number of technical challenges for the electricity network. A day-ahead network-constrained market clearing formulation is proposed which considers demand side resources. The proposed approach can provide flexible load profile and reduce the need for ramp up/down services by the conventional generators. This method can potentially facilitate a large penetration of wind power by shifting the wind power generation from the off-peak periods to the high-peak hours. The validity of the proposed approach has been verified using the IEEE 30 bus and 57 bus test systems.

A data mining framework for electricity consumption analysis from meter data

This paper presents a novel data mining framework for the exploration and extraction of actionable knowledge from data generated by electricity meters. Although a rich source of information for energy consumption analysis, electricity meters produce a voluminous, fast-paced, transient stream of data that conventional approaches are unable to address entirely. In order to overcome these issues, it is important for a data mining framework to incorporate functionality for interim summarization and incremental analysis using intelligent techniques. The proposed Incremental Summarization and Pattern Characterization (ISPC) framework demonstrates this capability. Stream data is structured in a data warehouse based on key dimensions enabling rapid interim summarization. Independently, the IPCL algorithm incrementally characterizes patterns in stream data and correlates these across time. Eventually, characterized patterns are consolidated with interim summarization to facilitate an overall analysis and prediction of energy consumption trends. Results of experiments conducted using the actual data from electricity meters confirm applicability of the ISPC framework.

Performance study of a wind-grid system in a semi- arid region and major integration issues

The phenomenal growth in economy experienced in developed countries throughout the 20th century has largely been driven by the availability of conventional energy sources for electricity generation. However, increased concern about fossil fuels and adverse effect of carbon dioxide emission in to atmosphere changed the conventional power system to a viable one by integrating renewable energy sources into the existing system. Among the Renewable Energy (RE) sources, wind energy is one of the fastest growing technologies in reducing the Green House Gas (GHG) emissions in to the atmosphere due to its continuous availability throughout a period. Hence, this paper discusses the performance of a wind-grid connected system in a semi-arid region by conducting a case study. Wilson promontory, one of the best locations for wind generation in Victoria is considered as a case study. Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) is used as a simulating tool for this analysis. This study also presents the influences of storage system in the proposed Hybrid Power System (HPS) allowing energy to be stored during higher generations or lower load demands. In addition this paper also discusses the major integration issues to facilitate the large scale wind energy into the grid for reliable power generation and distribution.

Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

Hybrid technique of ant colony and particle swarm optimization for short term wind energy forecasting

Wind farms are producing a considerable portion of the world renewable energy. Since the output power of any wind farm is highly dependent on the wind speed, the power extracted from a wind park is not always a constant value. In order to have a non-disruptive supply of electricity, it is important to have a good scheduling and forecasting system for the energy output of any wind park. In this paper, a new hybrid swarm technique (HAP) is used to forecast the energy output of a real wind farm located in Binaloud, Iran. The technique consists of the hybridization of the ant colony optimization (ACO) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) which are two meta-heuristic techniques under the category of swarm intelligence. The hybridization of the two algorithms to optimize the forecasting model leads to a higher quality result with a faster convergence profile. The empirical hourly wind power output of Binaloud Wind Farm for 364 days is collected and used to train and test the prepared model. The meteorological data consisting of wind speed and ambient temperature is used as the inputs to the mathematical model. The results indicate that the proposed technique can estimate the output wind power based on the wind speed and the ambient temperature with an MAPE of 3.513%.

A systematic design of interval type-2 fuzzy logic system using extreme learning machine for electricity load demand forecasting

This paper presents a novel design of interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2FLS) by utilizing the theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) for electricity load demand forecasting. ELM has become a popular learning algorithm for single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFN). From the functional equivalence between the SLFN and fuzzy inference system, a hybrid of fuzzy-ELM has gained attention of the researchers. This paper extends the concept of fuzzy-ELM to an IT2FLS based on ELM (IT2FELM). In the proposed design the antecedent membership function parameters of the IT2FLS are generated randomly, whereas the consequent part parameters are determined analytically by the Moore-Penrose pseudo inverse. The ELM strategy ensures fast learning of the IT2FLS as well as optimality of the parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed design of IT2FLS is demonstrated with the application of forecasting nonlinear and chaotic data sets. Nonlinear data of electricity load from the Australian National Electricity Market for the Victoria region and from the Ontario Electricity Market are considered here. The proposed model is also applied to forecast Mackey-glass chaotic time series data. Comparative analysis of the proposed model is conducted with some traditional models such as neural networks (NN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to verify the structure of the proposed design of IT2FLS an alternate design of IT2FLS based on Kalman filter (KF) is also utilized for the comparison purposes.

A brief review on offshore wind turbine fault detection and recent development in condition monitoring based maintenance system

Offshore wind turbine requires more systematized operation and maintenance strategies to ensure systems are harmless, profitable and cost-effective. Condition monitoring and fault diagnostic systems ominously plays an important role in offshore wind turbine in order to cut down maintenance and operational costs. Condition monitoring techniques which describing complex faults and failure mode types and their generated traceable signs to provide cost-effective condition monitoring and predictive maintenance and their diagnostic schemes. Continuously monitor the condition of critical parts are the most efficient way to improve reliability of wind turbine. Implementation of Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) strategy provides right time maintenance decisions and Predictive Health Monitoring (PHM) data to overcome breakdown and machine downtime. Fault detection and CBM implementation is challenging for off shore wind farm due to the complexity of remote sensing, components health and predictive assessment, data collection, data analysis, data handling, state recognition, and advisory decision. The rapid expansion of wind farms, advanced technological development and harsh installation sites needs a successful CM approach. This paper aims to review brief status of recent development of CM techniques and focusing with major faults takes place in gear box and bearing, rotor and blade, pitch, yaw and tower system and generator and control system.

Prediction interval estimation for wind farm power generation forecasts using support vector machines

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is quite an important as well as challenging task for the system operators and market participants due to its high uncertainty. It is essential to quantify uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts for their efficient application in optimal management of wind farms and integration into power systems. Prediction intervals (PIs) are well known statistical tools which are used to quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future target variables. This paper investigates the application of a novel support vector machine based methodology to directly estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PIs without expensive computational burden and inaccurate assumptions about the distribution of the data. The efficiency of the method for uncertainty quantification is examined using monthly data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for short term application are generated with a confidence level of 90%. Experimental results confirm the ability of the method in constructing reliable PIs without resorting to complex computational methods.