Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia.

Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize the need for special consideration of rare and threatened species that are poorly predicted by presence-absence models. This modeling exercise was a useful a priori approach in species risk assessments to identify species present at times and locations of locust control applications, and to discover gaps in our knowledge and need for further focused data collection.

Gait termination in young and older adults : effect of stopping stimulus probability and stimulus delay

Sixteen young (25±2.6 years) and 16 older individuals (69±4.4 years) walked normally then terminated walking rapidly. A visual stopping stimulus was presented 10 ms following ground contact (short delay) and in another condition, at 450 ms prior to toe-off (long delay). Stimulus probability was either high (80% of trials) or low (10%). The younger group stopped faster (463 vs. 574 ms) despite also walking faster (1.29 vs. 1.17 m s⁻¹). Longer delay decreased one-step responses but older participants used significantly more (slower) two-step stopping, which increased stopping time and distance. The additional step may have been pre-planned to maintain medial–lateral stability.

Change in the diet of sooty owls (Tyto tenebricosa) since European settlement: from terrestrial to arboreal prey and increased overlap with powerful owls

The current diet of the sooty owl (Tyto tenebricosa) was determined by analysing freshly regurgitated pellets collected beneath their roosting sites in East Gippsland, Victoria. Comparisons were then made with: (i) prehistoric and historic diet from bone deposits found in cave roosts, and (ii) diet of a sympatric owl species, the powerful owl (Ninox strenua). Sooty owls consumed a large array of terrestrial mammal species before European settlement, but only three terrestrial species were detected in their current diet, a reduction of at least eight species since European settlement. To compensate, sooty owls have increased their consumption of arboreal prey from 55% to 81% of their diet. Arboreal species are also a major component of the powerful owl diet and this prey shift by sooty owls has increased dietary overlap between these two species. Predation by foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and other feral species is likely to have reduced the amount of terrestrial prey available to sooty owls since European settlement. Investigation of changes in the diet of sooty owls may offer a unique monitoring system for evaluating the ability of fox-control strategies to influence increases in numbers of critical-weight-range mammals.

A diagnostic 'profile' for chance (probability)

This article presents a profiling tools for identifying students knowledge in chance.

A conditional probability approach to risk assessment for child sexual offenders with different classes of victim

Specific scales were developed for discriminating child sexual offenders with different classes of victim. The project demonstrates a method of individualising scores on actuarial risk assessment measured in a way that makes them more meaningful for those involved in decision-making about individual child sexual offenders. At present, the only quantifiable approach to specific decision-making relies on a general prediction of future behaviour, based on group data. The Bayesian approach is one method that can be used to assist decision-makers to use this information in ways that lead to the more appropriate management of risk. Ultimately, the better management of known child sexual offenders will lead to fewer offences and a reduction in the number of children who lives are profoundly affected by sexual victimisation.

Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review of the literature shows such null models are virtually always rejected, with often large effect sizes. We formulate an alternative null model, which assumes that 1) the number of EPC has a random (Poisson) distribution across females (broods) and that 2) the probability for an offspring to be of extrapair origin is zero without any EPC and increases with the number of EPC. Our brood-level model can accommodate the bimodality of both zero and medium rates of EPY typically found in empirical data, and fitting our model to EPY production of 7 passerine bird species shows evidence of a nonrandom distribution of EPY in only 2 species. We therefore argue that 1) dichotomy in extrapair mate choice cannot be inferred only from a significant deviation in the observed distribution of EPY from a random process on the level of offspring and that 2) additional empirical work on testing the contrasting critical predictions from the classic and our alternative null models is required.

Distinguishing DDoS attacks from flash crowds using probability metrics

Both Flash crowds and DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service) attacks have very similar properties in terms of internet traffic, however Flash crowds are legitimate flows and DDoS attacks are illegitimate flows, and DDoS attacks have been a serious threat to internet security and stability. In this paper we propose a set of novel methods using probability metrics to distinguish DDoS attacks from Flash crowds effectively, and our simulations show that the proposed methods work well. In particular, these mathods can not only distinguish DDoS attacks from Flash crowds clearly, but also can distinguish the anomaly flow being DDoS attacks flow or being Flash crowd flow from Normal network flow effectively. Furthermore, we show our proposed hybrid probability metrics can greatly reduce both false positive and false negative rates in detection.

Comparing probability and non-probability sampling methods in ecstasy research : implications for the internet as a research tool

The usage of Ecstasy and related drug (ERD) has increasingly been the focus of epidemiological and other public health-related research. One of the more promising methods is the use of the Internet as a recruitment and survey tool.However, there remain methodological concerns and questions about representativeness. Three samples of ERD users in Melbourne, Australia surveyed in 2004 are compared in terms of a number of key demographic and drug use variables. The Internet, face-to-face, and probability
sampling methods appear to access similar but not identical groups of ERD users. Implications and limitations of the study are noted and future research is recommended.

Organisational and national culture : a study of overlap and interaction in the Literature

Terms such as Globalisation and cross-cultural management are widely used by both organisational managers and academics. While it is the intention of academics and industry analysts to explain the phenomena and discover principles to guide the practitioners, human resource managers are dealing with the workplace changes implicit in these terms on an increasingly frequent basis. These managers are facing increasingly diverse workforces, and must cope with all the challenges and opportunities inherent in such diversity. This article presents a new approach to examining the key literature on organisational and national culture in three main areas. Firstly, areas of convergence between various theories on culture are identified. Secondly, the article illustrates and discusses where these theories diverge from each other. Thirdly, drawing on the principles discussed in the article, a framework of national culture is developed from existing literature that highlights the convergence found in existing models.

Species overlap, speciation and the evolution of aggregation pheromones in bark beetles

Theoretical predictions suggest that species-specific signals used in the attraction of mates should evolve to reduce the risk of mismating and hybridization. These predictions lead to the hypothesis that the signals of spatially overlapping (i.e. sympatric or syntopic) species should differ more substantially than those of non-overlapping species. Earlier studies have tested this prediction for auditory and visual signals. Here we test the hypothesis using olfactory signals, specifically the aggregation pheromones of species from two genera of bark beetles, Dendroctonus and Ips. We found no direct evidence from within these genera regarding the fact that the chemical blends that make up these pheromones differ more substantially in species that overlap in their geographical ranges and/or host-tree use than in allopatric taxa. However, when comparing between genera, the pheromones of overlapping species appear to be more similar than non-overlapping species. We hypothesize that the species of host tree utilized by the beetles may have some influence on their pheromone blends. Additionally, within genera, species that overlap in host use tend to be more closely related than species that use different hosts. These results may provide indirect evidence for an effect of species overlap on the evolution of bark beetle pheromones.

Distributional overlap rather than habitat differentiation characterizes co-occurrence of bivalves in intertidal soft sediment systems

Diverse species assemblages are often associated with a diversity of habitat structures. Sedimentary systems seem to be no exception, as within sedimentary systems benthic species diversity within a sample point appears to correlate with sediment grain size complexity. However, it remains to be shown whether total benthic species diversity relates to a system’s sediment heterogeneity across multiple systems. In the present paper we examined whether bivalve diversity is associated with: (1) sediment heterogeneity across systems and (2) sediment grain size complexity within systems, at 9 temperate and tropical tidal flat systems. Although bivalve life-history strategies, like post-settlement habitat selection, might suggest that sediment heterogeneity should be important for bivalve species, bivalve diversity and sediment heterogeneity were not associated across systems. Interestingly, the association between total benthic diversity and sediment heterogeneity was also not significant, suggesting that changing species composition across systems does not account for the lack of a correlation between bivalve diversity and sediment heterogeneity. Instead of habitat differentiation, bivalve diversity within a sample point was highest in ‘complex’ fine-grained sediments and bivalve distributions showed a large degree of distributional overlap in all systems. The results of this study at both smaller and larger spatial scales suggest that coexistence between bivalve species in diverse tidal flats is not associated with increased sediment heterogeneity.

Modeling worms propagation on probability

There are the two common means for propagating worms: scanning vulnerable computers in the network and sending out malicious email attachments. Modeling the propagation of worms can help us understand how worms spread and devise effective defence strategies. Most traditional models simulate the overall scale of infected network in each time tick, making them invalid for examining deep inside the propagation procedure among individual nodes. For this reason, this paper proposes a novel probability matrix to model the propagation mechanism of the two main classes of worms (scanning and email worms) by concentrating on the propagation probability. The objective of this paper is to access the spreading and work out an effective scheme against the worms. In order to evaluate the effects of each major component in our probability model, we implement a series of experiments for both worms. From the results, the network administrators can make decision on how to reduce the number of vulnerable nodes to a certain threshold for scanning worms, and how to immunize the highly-connected node for preventing worm's propagation for email worms.

Brain MRI thresholding using incomparability and overlap functions

In this work we present a new image thresholding algorithm for the segmentation of MRI brain images into two classes: gray matter and white matter. The proposed algorithm is based on the concept of incomparability proposed by Fodor and Roubens for fuzzy preference relations. We test our algorithm for local and global segmentation of brain images. We proof that global segmentation performs better results than local segmentation and improves the results obtained by other thresholding algorithm.