The use of capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods in Swedish listed companies

In this paper Swedish listed companies’ use of capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods in 2005 and 2008 are examined. The relation between company characteristics and choice of methods is investigated and both within-country longitudinal and cross-country comparisons are made. Larger companies seem to have used capital budgeting methods more frequently than smaller companies. When compared to U.S. and continental European companies, Swedish listed companies employed capital budgeting methods less frequently. In 2005 the most common method for establishing the cost of equity was by asking the investors what return they required. By 2008 CAPM was instead the most utilised method, which could indicate greater sophistication. The use of project risk when evaluating investments also seems to have gained in popularity, while the use of company risk declined. Overall, the use of sophisticated capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods seem to be rising and the use of less sophisticated methods declining.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

Euroland - The effect of Euro on international trade : Are there winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''?

This paper examines whether European Monetary Union (EMU) countries share fairly the effect of their membership in Eurozone (EZ) or whether are winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''. By using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) Member States for the period 2001-2012 in the context of a gravity model, we focus on estimating the Euro’s effect on bilateral trade and we detect whether this effect differs across the Member States of EZ. Two estimation methods are applied: Pooled OLS estimator and Fixed Effects estimator. The empirical results come to the conclusion that the individual country effects differ and are statistically significant, indicating that EMU’s effect on trade differs across the Member States of EZ. The overall effect of the Euro is statistically insignificant, regardless the estimation method, demonstrating that the common European currency may have no effect on bilateral trade.

Olycksfall i arbetet : En kartläggning över olycksfall vid Falu Koppargruva 1906-1915 samt åtgärder för en säkrare arbetsmiljö

Hur farligt var gruvarbete i början av 1900-talet? I denna uppsats undersöks de olycksfall som inträffade i Falu koppargruva mellan åren 1906-1915. Uppsatsen behandlar totalt 387 st arbetsrelaterade olyckor i och kring gruvan. I uppsatsen framkommer att gruvarbetarna var de som löpte störst risk att råka ut för skador. Sjukskrivningarnas längd varierade kraftigt, men de flesta olyckor medförde en sjukskrivningstid på mindre än 20 dagar. Krosskador, kontusioner, sårskador och ögonskador var de vanligaste följderna av olyckorna. Händer och fötter var de mest utsatta kroppsdelarna, och de flesta olyckorna var följden av fallande stenar eller olyckor i samband med användandet av maskiner och verktyg. Under den undersökta perioden inträffade fyra dödsfall, där tre var direkt arbetsrelaterade medan ett skedde under eftervården av en olycka. De vanligast förekommande skyddsåtgärderna var att installera någon form av skydd kring maskiner eller att mana till försiktighet vid riskabla arbetsmoment.

Att minska risken för våld och att främja återhämtning i den rättspsykiatriska vården : Patienters och personalens erfarenheter av vägen mot återhämtning

Detta avhandlingsarbete är utfört inom en rättspsykiatrisk vårdkontext och återspeglar patienters[1] och personals[2] erfarenheter och upplevelser av vändpunkter i samband med minskad risk för våld och återhämtning. Med utgångspunkt från ett holistiskt och salutogent hälsovetenskapligt perspektiv har avhandlingen ett tvärvetenskapligt förhållningssätt.   Teoretiska ämnesdiscipliner såsom psykiatrisk omvårdnad, kriminologi och sociologi har influerat arbetet. Avhandlingens övergripande syfte var att utifrån de salutogena aspekterna i det rättspsykiatriska omvårdnadsarbetet undersöka vad som är relaterat till vändpunkter i samband med minskad risk för våld och vad som bidrar till återhämtning. Avhandlingen baseras på fyra olika studier. Syftet med den inledande kvantitativa delstudien (I) var att identifiera och jämföra rättspsykiatriska patienter som sänkt sin bedömda risk för våld med 30 % eller mer enligt riskbedömningsinstrument HCR-20. Resultatet visade att den bedömda risken för våld minskade över tid. En demografisk analys genomfördes för att studera skillnader mellan de patienter som sänkt sin bedömda risk för våld och de som inte sänkt sin risk. Det framgick att rättspsykiatriska patienter som bedömts med hjälp av riskbedömningsinstrumentet HCR-20, minskade den bedömda risken för våld, både på kort och på lång sikt. Den rättspsykiatriska vården fungerade bäst när det gällde att förbättra de kliniska riskfaktorerna (C-skalan). Riskhanteringen (R-skalan) gällande eventuell utskrivning och framtida friförmåner visade inte samma goda progress. Demografiska karaktäristika såsom ålder, alkohol och drogmissbruk och psykiatriska diagnoser var inte relaterade till minskad risk för våld, dock var kvinnliga patienter och patienter utan psykopatidiagnos mer benägna att sänka sin risk för våld. Ett urval av de patienter som minskade sin risk för våld med 30 % eller mer utgjorde basen för delstudie II och III. I delstudie II intervjuades tretton rättspsykiatriska patienter om upplevelser och erfarenheter kring vad som bidrar till minskad respektive ökad risk för våld inne på en rättspsykiatrisk avdelning. Data analyserades med hjälp av en tolkande beskrivning (Interpretive Description). Studien visade att orsakerna till ökad respektive minskad risk för våld var processrelaterad, där interaktioner mellan personal och patienter bidrog till en utveckling som antingen präglades av välbefinnande eller disharmoni. Delstudie II utgjorde en viktig kunskapskälla som präglade ansatsen i delstudie III och IV. Detta med hänvisning till att flertalet patienter i delstudie II lämnade intressanta beskrivningar av vändpunkter i samband med minskad risk för våld och återhämtning. Sålunda intervjuades i delstudie III, tio rättspsykiatriska patienter om deras upplevelser av förändringsprocesser i samband med vändpunkter och återhämtning. Dataanalysen skedde med hjälp av en kvalitativ innehållsanalys. Processen beskrevs utifrån tre faser där man i högriskfasen upplevde kaotiska och överväldigande känslor. Vändpunkten upplevdes som ett känsligt skede som präglades av att tvingas hitta en ny, konstruktiv väg i livet. Återhämtningsfasen präglades av ett accepterande och en mognad. Stöd och erkännande från omgivningen ansåg främja dessa processer. Delstudie IV bestod av intervjuer med tretton personal. Syftet var att belysa upplevelser och erfarenheter kring rättspsykiatriska patienters vändpunkter och återhämtning. Kvalitativ innehållsanalys användes för att analysera data. Beskrivningar kring hur en vändpunkt kunde bevaras och främjas baserades på vikten av att vara uppmärksam, lyhörd och att inte skynda på processen. En vändpunkt upplevdes genom att patienten uppvisade synbara positiva förändringar. Sammansättningen på personalen och patienterna ansågs påverka atmosfären på avdelningen, och bidrog till huruvida processen mot vändpunkter och återhämtning underlättades eller försvårades. Avhandlingen visar hur ett ständigt växelspel mellan patienter och mellan personal bidrog till huruvida vårdatmosfären upplevdes såsom hälsofrämjande eller ej. Vidare framgår att processer kring vändpunkter i samband med minskad risk för våld och återhämtning präglades av känslor av sårbarhet och utsatthet. Processen beskrevs som ett känsligt förlopp som behövde understödjas av förtroendefulla relationer med andra, samt möjligheter att få vistas i en trygg miljö. [1] Den vetenskapliga litteraturen använder sig av begrepp såsom client, consumer, service user eller forensic patient för att beteckna människor som är inskrivna inom den rättspsykiatriska vården. Inom det psykiatriska svenska fältet kan begreppen brukare, vårdtagare eller patient förekomma. I denna avhandling kommer begreppet patient och vårdtagare omväxlande att användas för att beteckna de människor som är föremål för den rättspsykiatriska vården. De patienter som deltagit i avhandlingens två delstudier kommer omväxlande att benämnas såsom deltagare eller patienter, för att åstadkomma en varierande och läsvänlig text. [2] I denna avhandling anser begreppet personal den personalkategori som arbetar med omvårdnad inom en rättspsykiatrisk kontext. Det är främst sjuksköterskor och skötare som inkluderas i begreppet omvårdnadspersonal inom den vetenskapliga litteraturen. Sjuksköterskor benämns såsom registered mental health nurses eller registered nurses. Övrig omvårdnadspersonal tituleras till exempel som nurse manager eller assistant nurses. När begreppen personal, vårdare eller omvårdnadspersonal används i denna avhandling avses då den personalkategori som arbetar närmast patienten med omvårdnad och ingen åtskillnad kommer att göras mellan de båda yrkesgrupperna. Personalen som deltar i delstudie IV har omväxlande kallats för personal eller vårdare.

Novel Statistical Methods in Quantitative Genetics : Modeling Genetic Variance for Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping and Genomic Evaluation

This thesis develops and evaluates statistical methods for different types of genetic analyses, including quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, genome-wide association study (GWAS), and genomic evaluation. The main contribution of the thesis is to provide novel insights in modeling genetic variance, especially via random effects models. In variance component QTL analysis, a full likelihood model accounting for uncertainty in the identity-by-descent (IBD) matrix was developed. It was found to be able to correctly adjust the bias in genetic variance component estimation and gain power in QTL mapping in terms of precision.  Double hierarchical generalized linear models, and a non-iterative simplified version, were implemented and applied to fit data of an entire genome. These whole genome models were shown to have good performance in both QTL mapping and genomic prediction. A re-analysis of a publicly available GWAS data set identified significant loci in Arabidopsis that control phenotypic variance instead of mean, which validated the idea of variance-controlling genes.  The works in the thesis are accompanied by R packages available online, including a general statistical tool for fitting random effects models (hglm), an efficient generalized ridge regression for high-dimensional data (bigRR), a double-layer mixed model for genomic data analysis (iQTL), a stochastic IBD matrix calculator (MCIBD), a computational interface for QTL mapping (qtl.outbred), and a GWAS analysis tool for mapping variance-controlling loci (vGWAS).

Recent developments in statistical methods for detecting genetic loci affecting phenotypic variability

A number of recent works have introduced statistical methods for detecting genetic loci that affect phenotypic variability, which we refer to as variability-controlling quantitative trait loci (vQTL). These are genetic variants whose allelic state predicts how much phenotype values will vary about their expected means. Such loci are of great potential interest in both human and non-human genetic studies, one reason being that a detected vQTL could represent a previously undetected interaction with other genes or environmental factors. The simultaneous publication of these new methods in different journals has in many cases precluded opportunity for comparison. We survey some of these methods, the respective trade-offs they imply, and the connections between them. The methods fall into three main groups: classical non-parametric, fully parametric, and semi-parametric two-stage approximations. Choosing between alternatives involves balancing the need for robustness, flexibility, and speed. For each method, we identify important assumptions and limitations, including those of practical importance, such as their scope for including covariates and random effects. We show in simulations that both parametric methods and their semi-parametric approximations can give elevated false positive rates when they ignore mean-variance relationships intrinsic to the data generation process. We conclude that choice of method depends on the trait distribution, the need to include non-genetic covariates, and the population size and structure, coupled with a critical evaluation of how these fit with the assumptions of the statistical model.

Statistical bound of genetic solutions to quadratic assignment problems

Quadratic assignment problems (QAPs) are commonly solved by heuristic methods, where the optimum is sought iteratively. Heuristics are known to provide good solutions but the quality of the solutions, i.e., the confidence interval of the solution is unknown. This paper uses statistical optimum estimation techniques (SOETs) to assess the quality of Genetic algorithm solutions for QAPs. We examine the functioning of different SOETs regarding biasness, coverage rate and length of interval, and then we compare the SOET lower bound with deterministic ones. The commonly used deterministic bounds are confined to only a few algorithms. We show that, the Jackknife estimators have better performance than Weibull estimators, and when the number of heuristic solutions is as large as 100, higher order JK-estimators perform better than lower order ones. Compared with the deterministic bounds, the SOET lower bound performs significantly better than most deterministic lower bounds and is comparable with the best deterministic ones. 

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods: We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results: Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion: The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Predictive models for chronic renal disease using decision trees, naïve bayes and case-based methods

Data mining can be used in healthcare industry to “mine” clinical data to discover hidden information for intelligent and affective decision making. Discovery of hidden patterns and relationships often goes intact, yet advanced data mining techniques can be helpful as remedy to this scenario. This thesis mainly deals with Intelligent Prediction of Chronic Renal Disease (IPCRD). Data covers blood, urine test, and external symptoms applied to predict chronic renal disease. Data from the database is initially transformed to Weka (3.6) and Chi-Square method is used for features section. After normalizing data, three classifiers were applied and efficiency of output is evaluated. Mainly, three classifiers are analyzed: Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm. Results show that each technique has its unique strength in realizing the objectives of the defined mining goals. Efficiency of Decision Tree and KNN was almost same but Naïve Bayes proved a comparative edge over others. Further sensitivity and specificity tests are used as statistical measures to examine the performance of a binary classification. Sensitivity (also called recall rate in some fields) measures the proportion of actual positives which are correctly identified while Specificity measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified. CRISP-DM methodology is applied to build the mining models. It consists of six major phases: business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment.

The fall descriptions and health characteristics of older adults with hip fracture : a mixed methods study

Background: In light of the multifactorial etiology of fall-related hip fracture, knowledge of fall circumstances may be especially valuable when placed in the context of the health of the person who falls. We aimed to investigate the circumstances surrounding fall-related hip fractures and to describe fall circumstances in relation to participants' health and functional characteristics. Methods: The fall circumstances of 125 individuals (age >= 50 years) with hip fracture were investigated using semi-structured interviews. Data concerning participants' health (comorbidities and medications) and function (self-reported performance of mobility, balance, personal activities of daily living and physical activity, previous falls and hand grip strength) were collected via medical records, questionnaires and dynamometry. Using a mixed methods design, both data sets were analysed separately and then merged in order to provide a comprehensive description of fall events and identify eventual patterns in the data. Results: Fall circumstances were described as i) Activity at the time of the fall: Positional change (n = 24, 19%); Standing (n = 16, 13%); Walking (n = 71, 57%); Balance challenging (n = 14, 11%) and ii) Nature of the fall: Environmental (n = 32, 26%); Physiological (n = 35, 28%); Activity-related indoor (n = 8, 6%) and outdoor (n = 8, 6%); Trips and slips on snow (n = 20, 16%) and in snow-free conditions (n = 12, 10%) and Unknown (n = 10, 8%). We observed the following patterns regarding fall circumstances and participants' health: those who fell i) during positional change had the poorest functional status; ii) due to environmental reasons (indoors) had moderate physical function, but high levels of comorbidity and fall risk increasing medications; iii) in snow-free environments (outdoors) appeared to have a poorer health and functional status than other outdoor groups. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that patterns exist in relation to the falls circumstances and health characteristics of people with hip fracture which build upon that previously reported. These patterns, when verified, can provide useful information as to the ways in which fall prevention strategies can be tailored to individuals of varying levels of health and function who are at risk for falls and hip fracture.