Government spending and unemployment : An empirical study on Sweden, 1994-2012

The aim of the study was to see if any relationship between government spending andunemployment could be empirically found. To test if government spending affectsunemployment, a statistical model was applied on data from Sweden. The data was quarterlydata from the year 1994 until 2012, unit-root test were conducted and the variables wheretransformed to its first-difference so ensure stationarity. This transformation changed thevariables to growth rates. This meant that the interpretation deviated a little from the originalgoal. Other studies reviewed indicate that when government spending increases and/or taxesdecreases output increases. Studies show that unemployment decreases when governmentspending/GDP ratio increases. Some studies also indicated that with an already largegovernment sector increasing the spending it could have negative effect on output. The modelwas a VAR-model with unemployment, output, interest rate, taxes and government spending.Also included in the model were a linear and three quarterly dummies. The model used 7lags. The result was not statistically significant for most lags but indicated that as governmentspending growth rate increases holding everything else constant unemployment growth rateincreases. The result for taxes was even less statistically significant and indicates norelationship with unemployment. Post-estimation test indicates that there were problems withnon-normality in the model. So the results should be interpreted with some scepticism.

Effect of Earnings Volatility on Cost of Debt: The case of Swedish Limited Companies

The paper empirically tests the relationship between earnings volatility and cost of debt with a sample of more than 77,000 Swedish limited companies over the period 2006 to 2013 observing more than 677,000 firm years. As called upon by many researchers recently that there is very limited evidence of the association between earnings volatility and cost of debt this paper contributes greatly to the existing literature of earnings quality and debt contracts, especially on the consequence of earnings quality in the debt market. Earnings volatility is a proxy used for earnings quality while cost of debt is a component of debt contract. After controlling for firms’ profitability, liquidity, solvency, cashflow volatility, accruals volatility, sales volatility, business risk, financial risk and size this paper studies the effect of earnings volatility measured by standard deviation of Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) on Cost of Debt. Overall finding suggests that lenders in Sweden does take earnings volatility into consideration while determining cost of debt for borrowers. But a deeper analysis of various industries suggest earnings volatility is not consistently used by lenders across all the industries. Lenders in Sweden are rather more sensitive to borrowers’ financial risk across all the industries. It may also be stated that larger borrowers tend to secure loans at a lower interest rate, the results are consistent with majority of the industries. Swedish debt market appears to be well prepared for financial crises as the debt crisis seems to have no or little adverse effect borrowers’ cost of capital. This study is the only empirical evidence to study the association between earnings volatility and cost of debt. Prior indirect research suggests earnings volatility has a negative effect on cost debt (i.e. an increase in earnings volatility will increase firm’s cost of debt). Our direct evidence from the Swedish debt market is consistent for some industries including media, real estate activities, transportation & warehousing, and other consumer services.

Avskaffandet av revisionsplikten : Ränteeffekter på företag inom fastighetsbranschen efter avskaffandet av revisionsplikten

Bakgrund: År 2010 avskaffades revisionsplikten för mindre aktiebolag i Sverige. Anledningen till avskaffandet var att minska kostnaderna för mindre företag. Tidigare forskning har kommit fram till att företag som valt bort revisor får en högre kreditkostnad när de till exempel tar lån. Den tidigare forskningen menar att detta kan bero på att banker och andra kreditinstitut anser att oreviderade finansiella rapporter har en sämre kvalitet än reviderade rapporter vilket leder till en högre risk för kreditgivarna. Denna uppsats kommer att undersöka om det finns någon skillnad på låneräntan mellan företag som valt att ha kvar revisor och företag som valt bort revisor. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka, jämföra samt analysera låneräntan hos mindre aktiebolag inom fastighetsbranschen som inte är revisionspliktiga. Metod: Kvantitativ metod, multipel regressionsanalys. Resultat: Resultaten i denna studie visar på att företag med revisor har en lägre ränta i genomsnitt jämfört med företag utan revisor. Vi har även fått fram att revision har en negativ påverkan på företags ränta, men detta resultat är inte signifikant. Därför kan vi inte uttala oss om att revision har en negativ påverkan på företags ränta, trots att tidigare forskning har visat det. Slutsats: Företags val av revisor eller ej är inte det viktigaste för kreditgivare när det kommer till vilken ränta företagen skall få på sina lån. Det finns andra faktorer som har en större påverkan på räntan. I denna studie är det företags storlek samt andelen materiella tillgångar i förhållande till totala tillgångar som har den största negativa påverkan på företags ränta. Detta indikerar att banker och andra kreditinstitut ser dessa företag som en lägre risk.