Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

A gravity model for trade between Vietnam and twenty-three European countries

This thesis examines the bilateral trade between Vietnam and twenty three European countries based on a gravity model and panel data for years 1993 to 2004. Estimates indicate that economic size, market size and real exchange rate of Vietnam and twenty three European countries play major role in bilateral trade between Vietnam and these countries. Distance and history, however, do not seem to drive the bilateral trade. The results of gravity model are also applied to calculate the trade potential between Vietnam and twenty three European countries. It shows that Vietnam’s trade with twenty three European countries has considerable room for growth.

Testing linear cointegration against smooth-transition cointegration

This paper studies a smooth-transition (ST) type cointegration. The proposed ST cointegration allows for regime switching structure in a cointegrated system. It nests the linear cointegration developed by Engle and Granger (1987) and the threshold cointegration studied by Balke and Fomby (1997). We develop F-type tests to examine linear cointegration against ST cointegration in ST-type cointegrating regression models with or without time trends. The null asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived with stationary transition variables in ST cointegrating regression models. And it is shown that our tests have nonstandard limiting distributions expressed in terms of standard Brownian motion when regressors are pure random walks, while have standard asymptotic distributions when regressors contain random walks with nonzero drift. Finite-sample distributions of those tests are studied by Monto Carlo simulations. The small-sample performance of the tests states that our F-type tests have a better power when the system contains ST cointegration than when the system is linearly cointegrated. An empirical example for the purchasing power parity (PPP) data (monthly US dollar, Italy lira and dollar-lira exchange rate from 1973:01 to 1989:10) is illustrated by applying the testing procedures in this paper. It is found that there is no linear cointegration in the system, but there exits the ST-type cointegration in the PPP data.

Mellanchefers upplevelser av psykosocial arbetsmiljö inom distributions- och logistikverksamhet – en pendling mellan hög aktivitet och låg stress?

Forskarnas genuina intresse för den psykosociala arbetsmiljön med koppling mellanchefer gav upphov till att dyka djupare inom området och belysa centrala delar i form av krav, kontroll och socialt stöd. Framåtskridandet går mot en ökad medvetenhet kring den psykosociala arbetsmiljön, då ohälsan i arbetslivet ökar och Arbetsmiljöverkets nya föreskrift om organisatorisk och social arbetsmiljö är i fokus. I linje med en ökad medvetenhet som sker kring den psykosociala arbetsmiljön vill vi rikta ett särskilt fokus till mellanchefer som bör ha en förmåga att hantera krav både uppifrån och ned. Studien har främst utgått från Robert Karaseks och Töres Theorells Krav – kontroll – stödmodellen. Syftet är att undersöka mellanchefers upplevelse med fokus på den psykosociala arbetsmiljön i ett privat företag inom distributions- och logistikverksamhet. Metoden har bestått av en kvalitativ metod i form av en fallstudie där semistrukturerade intervjuer ligger som grund med åtta respondenter ifrån distributionscentret. Resultatet uppvisar att mellancheferna har en hög grad av inflytande, upplevelsen av arbetskrav varierar men i koppling till befattningen är kraven rimliga. Det sociala stödet upplevs som bra på arbetsplatsen och anses av funktionscheferna som en viktig och central del i arbetet. Slutsatser som har uppnåtts är att funktionscheferna har rimliga krav och upplever en bra nivå av kontroll i arbetet, men att ha en alltför hög kontroll i arbetet kan leda till negativ stress. En balans i pendlingen mellan aktiva arbeten och lågstressarbeten anses vara en fördel för att bevara en god psykosocial arbetsmiljö. Detta för att motverka de negativa effekterna som kan uppstå av att befinna sig inom varje komponent för länge. I studien har det påvisats att företaget anses ha en god psykosocial arbetsmiljö och därmed kan ses som ett gott exempel i arbetslivet.