Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.

A computer study of the improvement of PV panel monthly outputs when the panel azimuth is changed thrice daily

The purpose of the calculations was to estimate the most suitable slopes and azimuths for three different positions per day of a solar panel in order to obtain the most possible energy from the PV panel compared with a stationary PV panel. The calculations were made in the computer program PV F-CHART.

Evaluation of a PVT Air Collector

Hybrid Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) collectors are an emerging technology that combines PV and solar thermal systems in a single solar collector producing heat and electricity simultaneously. The focus of this thesis work is to evaluate the performance of unglazed open loop PVT air system integrated on a garage roof in Borlänge. As it is thought to have a significant potential for preheating ventilation of the building and improving the PV modules electrical efficiency. The performance evaluation is important to optimize the cooling strategy of the collector in order to enhance its electrical efficiency and maximize the production of thermal energy. The evaluation process involves monitoring the electrical and thermal energies for a certain period of time and investigating the cooling effect on the performance through controlling the air mass flow provided by a variable speed fan connected to the collector by an air distribution duct. The distribution duct transfers the heated outlet air from the collector to inside the building. The PVT air collector consists of 34 Solibro CIGS type PV modules (115 Wp for each module) which are roof integrated and have replaced the traditional roof material. The collector is oriented toward the south-west with a tilt of 29 ᵒ. The collector consists of 17 parallel air ducts formed between the PV modules and the insulated roof surface. Each air duct has a depth of 0.05 m, length of 2.38 m and width of 2.38 m. The air ducts are connected to each other through holes. The monitoring system is based on using T-type thermocouples to measure the relevant temperatures, air sensor to measure the air mass flow. These parameters are needed to calculate the thermal energy. The monitoring system contains also voltage dividers to measure the PV modules voltage and shunt resistance to measure the PV current, and AC energy meters which are needed to calculate the produced electrical energy. All signals recorded from the thermocouples, voltage dividers and shunt resistances are connected to data loggers. The strategy of cooling in this work was based on switching the fan on, only when the difference between the air duct temperature (under the middle of top of PV column) and the room temperature becomes higher than 5 °C. This strategy was effective in term of avoiding high electrical consumption by the fan, and it is recommended for further development. The temperature difference of 5 °C is the minimum value to compensate the heat losses in the collecting duct and distribution duct. The PVT air collector has an area of (Ac=32 m2), and air mass flow of 0.002 kg/s m2. The nominal output power of the collector is 4 kWppv (34 CIGS modules with 115 Wppvfor each module). The collector produces thermal output energy of 6.88 kWth/day (0.21 kWth/m2 day) and an electrical output energy of 13.46 kWhel/day (0.42 kWhel/m2 day) with cooling case. The PVT air collector has a daily thermal energy yield of 1.72 kWhth/kWppv, and a daily PV electrical energy yield of 3.36 kWhel /kWppv. The fan energy requirement in this case was 0.18 kWh/day which is very small compared to the electrical energy generated by the PV collector. The obtained thermal efficiency was 8 % which is small compared to the results reported in literature for PVT air collectors. The small thermal efficiency was due to small operating air mass flow. Therefore, the study suggests increasing the air mass flow by a factor of 25. The electrical efficiency was fluctuating around 14 %, which is higher than the theoretical efficiency of the PV modules, and this discrepancy was due to the poor method of recording the solar irradiance in the location. Due to shading effect, it was better to use more than one pyranometer.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in upto 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for similar to 2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous systemin obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

Struggling with daily life and enduring pain : a qualitative study of women's experiences with pelvic girdle pain during pregnancy

Background. Few studies have investigated the experiences of living with pelvic girdle pain (PGP) and its impact on pregnant women’s lives. To address this gap in knowledge, this study investigates the experiences of women living with PGP during pregnancy. Methods. A purposive sample, of nine pregnant women with diagnosed PGP, were interviewed about their experiences. Interviews were recorded, transcribed to text and analysed using a Grounded Theory approach. Results. The core category that evolved from the analysis of experiences of living with PGP in pregnancy was “struggling with daily life and enduring pain”. Three properties addressing the actions caused by PGP were identified: i) grasping the incomprehensible; ii) balancing support and dependence and iii) managing the losses. These experiences expressed by the informants constitute a basis for the consequences of PGP: iv) enduring pain; v) being a burden; vi) calculating the risks and the experiences of the informants as vii) abdicating as a mother. Finally, the informants’ experiences of the consequences regarding the current pregnancy and any potential future pregnancies is presented in viii) paying the price and reconsidering the future. A conceptual model of the actions and consequences experienced by the pregnant informants living with PGP is presented. Conclusions. PGP during pregnancy greatly affects the informant’s experiences of her pregnancy, her roles in relationships, and her social context. For informants with young children, PGP negatively affects the role of being a mother, a situation that further strains the experience. As the constant pain disturbs most aspects of the lives of the informants, improvements in the treatment of PGP is of importance as to increase the quality of life. This pregnancy-related condition is prevalent and must be considered a major public health concern during pregnancy.

The discourses on induced abortion in Ugandan daily newspapers : a discourse analysis

Background: Ugandan law prohibits abortion under all circumstances except where there is a risk for the woman's life. However, it has been estimated that over 250 000 illegal abortions are being performed in the country yearly. Many of these abortions are carried out under unsafe conditions, being one of the most common reasons behind the nearly 5000 maternal deaths per year in Uganda. Little research has been conducted in relation to societal views on abortion within the Ugandan society. This study aims to analyze the discourse on abortion as expressed in the two main daily Ugandan newspapers. Method: The conceptual content of 59 articles on abortion between years 2006-2012, from the two main daily English-speaking newspapers in Uganda, was studied using principles from critical discourse analysis. Results: A religious discourse and a human rights discourse, together with medical and legal sub discourses frame the subject of abortion in Uganda, with consequences for who is portrayed as a victim and who is to blame for abortions taking place. It shows the strong presence of the Catholic Church within the medial debate on abortion. The results also demonstrate the absence of medial statements related to abortion made by political stakeholders. Conclusions: The Catholic Church has a strong position within the Ugandan society and their stance on abortion tends to have great influence on the way other actors and their activities are presented within the media, as well as how stakeholders choose to convey their message, or choose not to publicly debate the issue in question at all. To decrease the number of maternal deaths, we highlight the need for a more inclusive and varied debate that problematizes the current situation, especially from a gender perspective.