MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.

A computer study of the improvement of PV panel monthly outputs when the panel azimuth is changed thrice daily

The purpose of the calculations was to estimate the most suitable slopes and azimuths for three different positions per day of a solar panel in order to obtain the most possible energy from the PV panel compared with a stationary PV panel. The calculations were made in the computer program PV F-CHART.

Are central bank independence reforms necessary for achieving low and stable inflation?

Using data on the occurence of central bank independence (CBI) reforms in 131 countries during 1980-2005, we test whether they were important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability. CBI reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average 3.31% when countries with historically high inflation rates are included. But countries with lower inflation have reduced it without institutional reforms granting central banks more independence, undermining the theoretical time-inconsistency case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI reforms have helped reduce inflation variability.

Effects of central bank independence reforms on inflation in different parts of the world

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of CBI-reforms on inflation in different parts of the world from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Compared to previous studies, this study focuses on whether CBI-reforms have different effects on reducing inflation in different parts of the world. The study is based on a 132 country data-set from 1980 to 2005 compiled by Daunfeldt et al. (2008). The result indicates that the reduction in inflation due to the CBI-reforms varies between 2.2 and 12.32 percentage points in Asia, Europe, South America and Oceania, supporting the claim that implementing CBI-reforms can be successful in reducing inflation in most of the parts of the world.

Struggling with daily life and enduring pain : a qualitative study of women's experiences with pelvic girdle pain during pregnancy

Background. Few studies have investigated the experiences of living with pelvic girdle pain (PGP) and its impact on pregnant women’s lives. To address this gap in knowledge, this study investigates the experiences of women living with PGP during pregnancy. Methods. A purposive sample, of nine pregnant women with diagnosed PGP, were interviewed about their experiences. Interviews were recorded, transcribed to text and analysed using a Grounded Theory approach. Results. The core category that evolved from the analysis of experiences of living with PGP in pregnancy was “struggling with daily life and enduring pain”. Three properties addressing the actions caused by PGP were identified: i) grasping the incomprehensible; ii) balancing support and dependence and iii) managing the losses. These experiences expressed by the informants constitute a basis for the consequences of PGP: iv) enduring pain; v) being a burden; vi) calculating the risks and the experiences of the informants as vii) abdicating as a mother. Finally, the informants’ experiences of the consequences regarding the current pregnancy and any potential future pregnancies is presented in viii) paying the price and reconsidering the future. A conceptual model of the actions and consequences experienced by the pregnant informants living with PGP is presented. Conclusions. PGP during pregnancy greatly affects the informant’s experiences of her pregnancy, her roles in relationships, and her social context. For informants with young children, PGP negatively affects the role of being a mother, a situation that further strains the experience. As the constant pain disturbs most aspects of the lives of the informants, improvements in the treatment of PGP is of importance as to increase the quality of life. This pregnancy-related condition is prevalent and must be considered a major public health concern during pregnancy.

The discourses on induced abortion in Ugandan daily newspapers : a discourse analysis

Background: Ugandan law prohibits abortion under all circumstances except where there is a risk for the woman's life. However, it has been estimated that over 250 000 illegal abortions are being performed in the country yearly. Many of these abortions are carried out under unsafe conditions, being one of the most common reasons behind the nearly 5000 maternal deaths per year in Uganda. Little research has been conducted in relation to societal views on abortion within the Ugandan society. This study aims to analyze the discourse on abortion as expressed in the two main daily Ugandan newspapers. Method: The conceptual content of 59 articles on abortion between years 2006-2012, from the two main daily English-speaking newspapers in Uganda, was studied using principles from critical discourse analysis. Results: A religious discourse and a human rights discourse, together with medical and legal sub discourses frame the subject of abortion in Uganda, with consequences for who is portrayed as a victim and who is to blame for abortions taking place. It shows the strong presence of the Catholic Church within the medial debate on abortion. The results also demonstrate the absence of medial statements related to abortion made by political stakeholders. Conclusions: The Catholic Church has a strong position within the Ugandan society and their stance on abortion tends to have great influence on the way other actors and their activities are presented within the media, as well as how stakeholders choose to convey their message, or choose not to publicly debate the issue in question at all. To decrease the number of maternal deaths, we highlight the need for a more inclusive and varied debate that problematizes the current situation, especially from a gender perspective.