Dynamics of brand competition: Effects of unobserved social networks

Brand competition is modelled using an agent based approach in order to examine the long run dynamics of market structure and brand characteristics. A repeated game is designed where myopic firms choose strategies based on beliefs about their rivals and consumers. Consumers are heterogeneous and can observe neighbour behaviour through social networks. Although firms do not observe them, the social networks have a significant impact on the emerging market structure. Presence of networks tends to polarize market share and leads to higher volatility in brands. Yet convergence in brand characteristics usually happens whenever the market reaches a steady state. Scale-free networks accentuate the polarization and volatility more than small world or random networks. Unilateral innovations are less frequent under social networks.

Turing Test: Mindless Game?

The Turing Test, originally configured for a human to distinguish between an unseen man and unseen woman through a text-based conversational measure of gender, is the ultimate test for thinking. So conceived Alan Turing when he replaced the woman with a machine. His assertion, that once a machine deceived a human judge into believing that they were the human, then that machine should be attributed with intelligence. But is the Turing Test nothing more than a mindless game? We present results from recent Loebner Prizes, a platform for the Turing Test, and find that machines in the contest appear conversationally worse rather than better, from 2004 to 2006, showing a downward trend in highest scores awarded to them by human judges. Thus the machines are not thinking in the same way as a human intelligent entity would.

Psychophysiological responses to appraisal dimensions in a computer game

A computer game was used to study psychophysiological reactions to emotion-relevant events. Two dimensions proposed by Scherer (1984a, 1984b) in his appraisal theory, the intrinsic pleasantness and goal conduciveness of game events, were studied in a factorial design. The relative level at which a player performed at the moment of an event was also taken into account. A total of 33 participants played the game while cardiac activity, skin conductance, skin temperature, and muscle activity as well as emotion self-reports were assessed. The self-reports indicate that game events altered levels of pride, joy, anger, and surprise. Goal conduciveness had little effect on muscle activity but was associated with significant autonomic effects, including changes to interbeat interval, pulse transit time, skin conductance, and finger temperature. The manipulation of intrinsic pleasantness had little impact on physiological responses. The results show the utility of attempting to manipulate emotion-constituent appraisals and measure their peripheral physiological signatures.

KQQKQQ and the Kasparov-World Game

The 1999 Kasparov-World game for the first time enabled anyone to join a team playing against a World Chess Champion via the web. It included a surprise in the opening, complex middle-game strategy and a deep ending. As the game headed for its mysterious finale, the World Team re-quested a KQQKQQ endgame table and was provided with two by the authors. This paper describes their work, compares the methods used, examines the issues raised and summarises the concepts involved for the benefit of future workers in the endgame field. It also notes the contribution of this endgame to chess itself.

The Kasparov-World Match

The Kasparov-World match was initiated by Microsoft with sponsorship from the bank First USA. The concept was that Garry Kasparov as White would play the rest of the world on the Web: one ply would be played per day and the World Team was to vote for its move. The Kasparov-World game was a success from many points of view. It certainly gave thousands the feeling of facing the world’s best player across the board and did much for the future of the game. Described by Kasparov as “phenomenal ... the most complex in chess history”, it is probably a worthy ‘Greatest Game’ candidate. Computer technology has given chess a new mode of play and taken it to new heights: the experiment deserves to be repeated. We look forward to another game and experience of this quality although it will be difficult to surpass the event we have just enjoyed. We salute and thank all those who contributed - sponsors, moderator, coaches, unofficial analysts, organisers, technologists, voters and our new friends.

The sequential analysis of repeated binary responses: a score test for the case of three time points

In this paper a robust method is developed for the analysis of data consisting of repeated binary observations taken at up to three fixed time points on each subject. The primary objective is to compare outcomes at the last time point, using earlier observations to predict this for subjects with incomplete records. A score test is derived. The method is developed for application to sequential clinical trials, as at interim analyses there will be many incomplete records occurring in non-informative patterns. Motivation for the methodology comes from experience with clinical trials in stroke and head injury, and data from one such trial is used to illustrate the approach. Extensions to more than three time points and to allow for stratification are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Repeated challenge with prion disease: The risk of infection and impact on incubation period

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract

This paper extends the build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to a new method for identifying a concession period by using bargaining-game theory. Concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract, and there are few methodologies available for helping to determine the value of this variable. The BOTCcM presents an alternative method by which a group of concession period solutions are produced. Nevertheless, a typical weakness in using BOTCcM is that the model cannot recommend a specific time span for concessionary. This paper introduces a new method called BOT bargaining concession model (BOTBaC) to enable the identification of a specific concession period, which takes into account the bargaining behavior of the two parties concerned in engaging a BOT contract, namely, the investor and the government concerned. The application of BOTBaC is demonstrated through using an example case.

Testing Turing's five minutes, parallel-paired imitation game

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider Turing's two tests for machine intelligence: the parallel-paired, three-participants game presented in his 1950 paper, and the “jury-service” one-to-one measure described two years later in a radio broadcast. Both versions were instantiated in practical Turing tests during the 18th Loebner Prize for artificial intelligence hosted at the University of Reading, UK, in October 2008. This involved jury-service tests in the preliminary phase and parallel-paired in the final phase. Design/methodology/approach – Almost 100 test results from the final have been evaluated and this paper reports some intriguing nuances which arose as a result of the unique contest. Findings – In the 2008 competition, Turing's 30 per cent pass rate is not achieved by any machine in the parallel-paired tests but Turing's modified prediction: “at least in a hundred years time” is remembered. Originality/value – The paper presents actual responses from “modern Elizas” to human interrogators during contest dialogues that show considerable improvement in artificial conversational entities (ACE). Unlike their ancestor – Weizenbaum's natural language understanding system – ACE are now able to recall, share information and disclose personal interests.