Bias from farmer self-selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.

Aging is associated with positive responding to neutral information but reduced recovery from negative information

Studies on aging and emotion suggest an increase in reported positive affect, a processing bias of positive over negative information, as well as increasingly adaptive regulation in response to negative events with advancing age. These findings imply that older individuals evaluate information differently, resulting in lowered reactivity to, and/or faster recovery from, negative information, while maintaining more positive responding to positive information. We examined this hypothesis in an ongoing study on Midlife in the US (MIDUS II) where emotional reactivity and recovery were assessed in a large number of respondents (N = 159) from a wide age range (36–84 years). We recorded eye-blink startle magnitudes and corrugator activity during and after the presentation of positive, neutral and negative pictures. The most robust age effect was found in response to neutral stimuli, where increasing age is associated with a decreased corrugator and eyeblink startle response to neutral stimuli. These data suggest that an age-related positivity effect does not essentially alter the response to emotion-laden information, but is reflected in a more positive interpretation of affectively ambiguous information. Furthermore, older women showed reduced corrugator recovery from negative pictures relative to the younger women and men, suggesting that an age-related prioritization of well-being is not necessarily reflected in adaptive regulation of negative affect.

Can we harness computerised cognitive bias modification to treat anxiety in schizophrenia? A first step highlighting the role of mental imagery

A new wave of computerised therapy is under development which, rather than simulating talking therapies, uses bias modification techniques to target the core psychological process underlying anxiety. Such interventions are aimed at anxiety disorders, and are yet to be adapted for co-morbid anxiety in psychosis. The cognitive bias modification (CBM) paradigm delivers repeated exposure to stimuli in order to train individuals to resolve ambiguous information in a positive, rather than anxiety provoking, manner. The current study is the first to report data from a modified form of CBM which targets co-morbid anxiety within individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia. Our version of CBM involved exposure to one hundred vignettes presented over headphones. Participants were instructed to actively simulate the described scenarios via visual imagery. Twenty-one participants completed both a single session of CBM and a single control condition session in counter-balanced order. Within the whole sample, there was no significant improvement on interpretation bias of CBM or state anxiety, relative to the control condition. However, in line with previous research, those participants who engage in higher levels of visual imagery exhibited larger changes in interpretation bias. We discuss the implications for harnessing computerised CBM therapy developments for co-morbid anxiety in schizophrenia.

Bias from farmer self-selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.

Attentional bias in eating disorders

Objective: To examine the relationship between eating disorders and attentional biases. Method: The first study comprised 23 female patients with clinical eating disorders, women with high levels of anxiety (n = 19), and three female normal control groups comprising low (n = 31), moderate (n = 21), or high levels of shape concern (n 23). The second study comprised 82 women with clinical eating disorders and 44 healthy controls. All participants completed measures of eating disorder psychopathology and completed a modified pictorial dot-probe task. Results: In the first study, biases were found for negative eating and neutral weight pictures, and for positive eating pictures in women with eating disorders; these biases were greater than those found in anxious and normal controls. The second study replicated these findings and biases were also found for negative and neutral shape stimuli. Conclusion: It is concluded that future research should establish whether such biases warrant specific therapeutic interventions. (c) 2007 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do variations in substitution rates and male mutation bias correlate with life-history traits? A study of 32 mammalian genomes

Life-history traits vary substantially across species, and have been demonstrated to affect substitution rates. We compute genomewide, branch-specific estimates of male mutation bias (the ratio of male-to-female mutation rates) across 32 mammalian genomes and study how these vary with life-history traits (generation time, metabolic rate, and sperm competition). We also investigate the influence of life-history traits on substitution rates at unconstrained sites across a wide phylogenetic range. We observe that increased generation time is the strongest predictor of variation in both substitution rates (for which it is a negative predictor) and male mutation bias (for which it is a positive predictor). Although less significant, we also observe that estimates of metabolic rate, reflecting replication-independent DNA damage and repair mechanisms, correlate negatively with autosomal substitution rates, and positively with male mutation bias. Finally, in contrast to expectations, we find no significant correlation between sperm competition and either autosomal substitution rates or male mutation bias. Our results support the important but frequently opposite effects of some, but not all, life history traits on substitution rates. KEY WORDS: Generation time, genome evolution, metabolic rate, sperm competition.

Enhanced effects of combined cognitive bias modification and computerised cognitive behaviour therapy on social anxiety

This study examines whether combined cognitive bias modification for interpretative biases (CBM-I) and computerised cognitive behaviour therapy (C-CBT) can produce enhanced positive effects on interpretation biases and social anxiety. Forty socially anxious students were randomly assigned into two conditions, an intervention group (positive CBM-I + C-CBT) or an active control (neutral CBM-I + C-CBT). At pre-test, participants completed measures of social anxiety, interpretative bias, cognitive distortions, and social and work adjustment. They were exposed to 6 × 30 min sessions of web-based interventions including three sessions of either positive or neutral CBM-I and three sessions of C-CBT, one session per day. At post-test and two-week follow-up, participants completed the baseline measures. A combined positive CBM-I + C-CBT produced less negative interpretations of ambiguous situations than neutral CBM-I + C-CBT. The results also showed that both positive CBM-I + C-CBT and neutral CBM-I + C-CBT reduced social anxiety and cognitive distortions as well as improving work and social adjustment. However, greater effect sizes were observed in the positive CBM-I + C-CBT condition than the control. This indicates that adding positive CBM-I to C-CBT enhanced the training effects on social anxiety, cognitive distortions, and social and work adjustment compared to the neutral CBM-I + C-CBT condition.

Is cognitive bias modification training truly beneficial for adolescents?

Background Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) has been shown to change interpretation biases commonly associated with anxiety and depression and may help ameliorate symptoms of these disorders. However, its evidence base for adolescents is scarce. Previous results have been hard to interpret because of methodological issues. In particular, many studies have used negative bias training as the control condition. This would tend to inflate any apparent benefits of CBM compared to a neutral control. Most studies also only examined the effects of a single training session and lacked follow-up assessment or ecologically valid outcome measures. Method Seventy-four adolescents, aged 16–18 years, were randomised to two sessions of CBM training or neutral control. Interpretation bias and mood were assessed three times: at baseline, immediately post-training and 1 week post-training. A controlled experimental stressor was also used, and responses to everyday stressors were recorded for 1 week after training to assess responses to psychological challenges. Feedback for the training programme was collected. Results The CBM group reported a greater reduction in negative affect than control participants. However, other hypothesised advantages of CBM were not demonstrated. Regardless of training group, participants reported increased positive interpretations, decreased negative interpretations, reduced depressive symptoms and no change in trait anxiety. The two groups did not differ in their stress reactivity. After controlling for group differences in training performance, all the mood effects disappeared. Conclusions When tested under stringent experimental conditions the effects of CBM in healthy adolescents appear to be minimal. Future studies should concentrate on participants with elevated cognitive biases and/or mood symptoms who may be more sensitive to CBM.

Threat interpretation bias in anxious children and their mothers

The role of parents in the development of anxiety disorders in children is of increasing research and clinical interest. This study investigated interpretation biases of anxious children and their mothers using the ambiguous stimuli task developed by Hadwin, Frost, French, and Richards (1997). Three groups of children (aged 7 to 12 years) and their mothers were recruited; 23 non-clinical controls, 18 children with an anxiety disorder and 15 children with an externalising disorder. Following diagnostic assessments of the children, children and their mothers independently completed the homophone task and self-report measures of anxiety. Mothers of anxious children had significantly higher self-reported anxiety than mothers of non-clinical children. As hypothesised, children in the anxious group had higher threat interpretation scores than the non-clinical group. The hypothesis that mothers of anxious children would make more threat interpretations was not supported. Paired correlations showed no significant association between threat interpretations made by children and their mothers. There was a significant positive correlation between maternal threat interpretation and child anxiety. The results suggest that there is a complex association between mother's anxiety and cognitions and those of their children, which requires further examination in controlled observational and experimental studies, including treatment trials.

Effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification program on interpretative biases and social anxiety symptoms in a sample of Iranian socially-anxious students

This study examines the effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) program on interpretative biases and social anxiety in an Iranian sample. Thirty-six volunteers with a high score on social anxiety measures were recruited from a student population and randomly allocated into the experimental and control groups. In the experimental group, participants received 4 sessions of positive CBM for interpretative biases (CBM-I) over 2 weeks in the laboratory. Participants in the control condition completed a neutral task matched the active CBM-I intervention in format and duration but did not encourage positive disambiguation of socially ambiguous scenarios. The results indicated that after training the positive CBM-I group exhibited more positive (and less negative) interpretations of ambiguous scenarios and less social anxiety symptoms relative to the control condition at both 1 week post-test and 7 weeks follow-up. It is suggested that clinical trials are required to establish the clinical efficacy of this intervention for social anxiety.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

The Upper Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) positive carbon-isotope event recorded in terrestrial plants

Our understanding of the ancient ocean-atmosphere system has focused on oceanic proxies. However, the study of terrestrial proxies is equally necessary to constrain our understanding of ancient climates and linkages between the terrestrial and oceanic carbon reservoirs. We have analyzed carbon-isotope ratios from fossil plant material through the Valanginian and Lower Hauterivian from a shallow-marine, ammonite-constrained succession in the Crimean Peninsula of the southern Ukraine in order to determine if the Upper Valanginian positive carbon-isotope excursion is expressed in the atmosphere. delta(13)C(plant) values fluctuate around -23% to -22% for the Valanginian-Hauterivian, except during the Upper Valanginian where delta(13)C(plant) values record a positive excursion to similar to-18%. Based upon ammonite biostratigraphy from Crimea, and in conjunction with a composite Tethyan marine delta(13)C(carb) curve, several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the delta(13)C(plant) record indicates that the atmospheric carbon reservoir was affected; (2) the defined ammonite correlations between Europe and Crimea are synchronous; and (3) a change in photosynthetic carbon-isotope fractionation, caused by a decrease in atmospheric PCO2, occurred during the Upper Valanginian Positive delta(13)C excursion. Our new data, combined with other paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information, indicate that the Upper Valanginian was a cool period (icehouse) and highlights that the Cretaceous period was interrupted by periods of cooling and was not an equable climate as previously thought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender stereotyping and decision processes: extending and reversing the gender bias in fame judgements

M. R. Banaji and A. G. Greenwald (1995) demonstrated a gender bias in fame judgments—that is, an increase in judged fame due to prior processing that was larger for male than for female names. They suggested that participants shift criteria between judging men and women, using the more liberal criterion for judging men. This "criterion-shift" account appeared problematic for a number of reasons. In this article, 3 experiments are reported that were designed to evaluate the criterion-shift account of the gender bias in the false-fame effect against a distribution-shift account. The results were consistent with the criterion-shift account, and they helped to define more precisely the situations in which people may be ready to shift their response criterion on an item-by-item basis. In addition, the results were incompatible with an interpretation of the criterion shift as an artifact of the experimental situation in the experiments reported by M. R. Banaji and A. G. Greenwald. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)