Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Contrasting effects of necrotrophic and biotrophic plant pathogens on the aphid Aphis fabae

Phytophagous insects have to contend with a wide variation in food quality brought about by a variety of factors intrinsic and extrinsic to the plant. One of the most important factors is infection by plant pathogenic fungi. Necrotrophic and biotrophic plant pathogenic fungi may have contrasting effects on insect herbivores due to their different infection mechanisms and induction of different resistance pathways, although this has been little studied and there has been no study of their combined effect. We studied the effect of the biotrophic rust fungus Uromyces viciae-fabae (Pers.) Schroet (Basidiomycota: Uredinales: Pucciniaceae) and the necrotrophic fungus Botrytis cinerea Pers. (Ascomycota: Helotiales: Sclerotiniaceae) singly and together on the performance of the aphid Aphis fabae Scop. (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on Vicia faba (L.) (Fabaceae). Alone, botrytis had an inhibitory effect on individual A. fabae development, survival and fecundity, while rust infection consistently enhanced individual aphids’ performance. These effects varied in linear relation to lesion or pustule density. However, whole-plant infection by either pathogen resulted in a smaller aphid population of smaller aphids than on uninfected plants, indicating a lowering of aphid carrying capacity with infection. When both fungi were applied simultaneously to a leaf they generally cancelled the effect of each other out, resulting in most performance parameters being similar to the controls, although fecundity was reduced. However, sequential plant infection (pathogens applied five days apart) led to a 70% decrease in fecundity and 50% reduction in intrinsic rate of increase. The application of rust before botrytis had a greater inhibitory effect on aphids than applying botrytis before rust. Rust infection increased leaf total nitrogen concentration by 30% while infection by botrytis with or without rust led to a 38% decrease. The aphids’ responses to the two plant pathogens individually is consistent with the alteration in plant nutrient content by infection and also the induction of different plant defence pathways and the possible cross-talk between them. This is the first demonstration of the complex effects of the dual infection of a plant by contrasting pathogens on insect herbivores. Key words: Vicia faba, Botrytis cinerea, Uromyces viciae-fabae, tripartite interactions, induced resistance

Which intrinsic traits predict vulnerability to extinction depends on the actual threatening processes

Understanding what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others is an important challenge for conservation. Many comparative analyses have addressed this issue exploring how intrinsic and extrinsic traits associate with general estimates of vulnerability. However, these general estimates do not consider the actual threats that drive species to extinction and hence, are more difficult to translate into effective management. We provide an updated description of the types and spatial distribution of threats that affect mammals globally using data from the IUCN for 5941 species of mammals. Using these data we explore the links between intrinsic species traits and specific threats in order to identify key intrinsic features associated with particular drivers of extinction. We find that families formed by small-size habitat specialists are more likely to be threatened by habitat-modifying processes; whereas, families formed by larger mammals with small litter sizes are more likely to be threatened by processes that directly affect survival. These results highlight the importance of considering the actual threatening process in comparative studies. We also discuss the need to standardize and rank threat importance in global assessments such as the IUCN Red List to improve our ability to understand what makes some species more vulnerable to extinction than others.

Spatial calibration of an optical see-through head-mounted display

We present here a method for calibrating an optical see-through Head Mounted Display (HMD) using techniques usually applied to camera calibration (photogrammetry). Using a camera placed inside the HMD to take pictures simultaneously of a tracked object and features in the HMD display, we could exploit established camera calibration techniques to recover both the intrinsic and extrinsic properties of the~HMD (width, height, focal length, optic centre and principal ray of the display). Our method gives low re-projection errors and, unlike existing methods, involves no time-consuming and error-prone human measurements, nor any prior estimates about the HMD geometry.

Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.

An automated calibration method for non-see-through head mounted displays

Accurate calibration of a head mounted display (HMD) is essential both for research on the visual system and for realistic interaction with virtual objects. Yet, existing calibration methods are time consuming and depend on human judgements, making them error prone. The methods are also limited to optical see-through HMDs. Building on our existing HMD calibration method [1], we show here how it is possible to calibrate a non-see-through HMD. A camera is placed inside an HMD displaying an image of a regular grid, which is captured by the camera. The HMD is then removed and the camera, which remains fixed in position, is used to capture images of a tracked calibration object in various positions. The locations of image features on the calibration object are then re-expressed in relation to the HMD grid. This allows established camera calibration techniques to be used to recover estimates of the display’s intrinsic parameters (width, height, focal length) and extrinsic parameters (optic centre and orientation of the principal ray). We calibrated a HMD in this manner in both see-through and in non-see-through modes and report the magnitude of the errors between real image features and reprojected features. Our calibration method produces low reprojection errors and involves no error-prone human measurements.

An automated calibration method for non-see-through head mounted displays

Accurate calibration of a head mounted display (HMD) is essential both for research on the visual system and for realistic interaction with virtual objects. Yet, existing calibration methods are time consuming and depend on human judgements, making them error prone, and are often limited to optical see-through HMDs. Building on our existing approach to HMD calibration Gilson et al. (2008), we show here how it is possible to calibrate a non-see-through HMD. A camera is placed inside a HMD displaying an image of a regular grid, which is captured by the camera. The HMD is then removed and the camera, which remains fixed in position, is used to capture images of a tracked calibration object in multiple positions. The centroids of the markers on the calibration object are recovered and their locations re-expressed in relation to the HMD grid. This allows established camera calibration techniques to be used to recover estimates of the HMD display's intrinsic parameters (width, height, focal length) and extrinsic parameters (optic centre and orientation of the principal ray). We calibrated a HMD in this manner and report the magnitude of the errors between real image features and reprojected features. Our calibration method produces low reprojection errors without the need for error-prone human judgements.

Risky attitudes towards road use in pre-drivers

Motor vehicle accidents are one of the principal causes of adolescent disability or mortality and male drivers are more likely to be involved in road accidents than female drivers. In part such associations between driver age and sex have been linked to differences in risky behaviour (e.g. speed, violations) and individual characteristics (e.g. sensation seeking, deviant behaviour). The aim of this research is to determine whether associations between risky road user behaviour and individual characteristics are a function of driver behaviour or whether they are intrinsic and measurable in individuals too young to drive. Five hundred and sixty-seven pre-driver students aged 11-16 from three secondary schools completed questionnaires measuring enthusiasm for speed, sensation seeking, deviant behaviour and attitudes towards driver violations. Boys reported more risky attitudes than girls for all measures. Associations between sensation seeking, deviant behaviour and attitudes towards risky road use were present from early adolescence and were strongest around age 14, before individuals learn to drive. Risky attitudes towards road use are associated with individual characteristics and are observed in adolescents long before they learn to drive. Safe attitudes towards road use and driver behaviour should be promoted from childhood in order to be effective. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motivation in second language acquisition in Chinese research students in the UK

The present study sets out to examine motivation to learn English by Chinese research students in an informal setting. Data were collected, using semi-structured interviews, from four research students at two points in time during their first year in the UK. The main findings are: they believed that learning English was important; their main goal orientations were instrumental and extrinsic; they set learning goals and persisted to attain them; they valued their current learning environment in general and saw it as supportive of their goals; they held both positive and negative attitudes towards the British, which had differential effects on their motivation; their self-perceived support seemed to have a positive impact on their motivation and the development of self-confidence; they tended to attribute their success to stable causes such as the environment and failure to unstable but controllable causes such as effort. It is concluded that qualitative data of this kind may complement insights from quantitative research. Implications for target country institutions in the provision of support are discussed.

Neural basis of the undermining effect of monetary reward on intrinsic motivation

Contrary to the widespread belief that people are positively motivated by reward incentives, some studies have shown that performance-based extrinsic reward can actually undermine a person's intrinsic motivation to engage in a task. This “undermining effect” has timely practical implications, given the burgeoning of performance-based incentive systems in contemporary society. It also presents a theoretical challenge for economic and reinforcement learning theories, which tend to assume that monetary incentives monotonically increase motivation. Despite the practical and theoretical importance of this provocative phenomenon, however, little is known about its neural basis. Herein we induced the behavioral undermining effect using a newly developed task, and we tracked its neural correlates using functional MRI. Our results show that performance-based monetary reward indeed undermines intrinsic motivation, as assessed by the number of voluntary engagements in the task. We found that activity in the anterior striatum and the prefrontal areas decreased along with this behavioral undermining effect. These findings suggest that the corticobasal ganglia valuation system underlies the undermining effect through the integration of extrinsic reward value and intrinsic task value.

The Masters in Teaching and Learning (MTL): a retrospective, intrinsic case study of the process of policy into practice and its impact on teacher participants

The research reported here is a retrospective case study of the recent (2010) introduction of the Masters in Teaching and Learning (MTL) as a post-graduate level programme of professional development for teachers. It contributes to the debate and research over the past two decades about the impact of post-graduate professional development and appropriate ways of delivering it. The study is located within an extensive body of literature dealing with the importance of the teaching profession with regard to the success of schools and pupils and the impact of professional development on teaching quality and of teaching quality on attainment. A further relevant context is the ongoing tension between the teaching profession and academics on the one hand and government and political actors on the other, in respect of the approaches to professional development and to the control of educational processes. The research questions which inform the study deal with the perspectives of various participants – policy makers, programme directors, coaches and teachers studying for the MTL – on the extent to which the MTL is likely to have an ameliorative effect on teaching and pupil attainment, their experiences of the process of policy development and their experiences as course participants. The study adopts a case study approach which involves elite interviews with those responsible for the development and implementation of the MTL, questionnaires completed by MTL course participants and a comparison group taking a conventional MA and in depth interviews with participants and coaches. The results revealed tensions and difficulties associated with the development of the MTL including uneasy relationships between HE institutions and government agencies, ideas about ‘producer capture’, the relevance of the MBA model and concern over the role of coaches. However, while acknowledging various difficulties and some misconceived expectations they viewed its potential to meet its expressed aims positively, given time. Course participants were positive about their experience of the MTL and felt that it had contributed to many aspects of their professional development. Most saw it as a positive experience despite the variable quality of support from their schools, particularly in the form of the school-based coach the concept of which had been heralded as the bellwether of the MTL. It was striking that the responses of the MTL participants were very similar to those of teachers taking a conventional MA. A finding which would repay further investigation is that while the great majority of course participants felt that the MTL (and the MA) had contributed to their becoming more effective teachers they were much less confident that it had contributed to increased pupil attainment.

Small states, great power? Gaining influence through intrinsic, derivative, and collective power

In recent years, scholars have devoted increased attention to the agency of small states in International Relations. However, the conventional wisdom remains that while not completely powerful, small states are unlikely to achieve much of significance when faced by great power opposition. This argument, however, implicitly rests on resource-based and compulsory understandings of power. This article explores the implicit connections between the concept of "small state" and diverse concepts of power, asking how we should understand these states' attempts to gain influence and achieve their international political objectives. By connecting the study of small states with additional understandings of power, the article elaborates the broader avenues for influence that are open to many states but are particularly relevant for small states. The article argues that small states' power can be best understood as originating in three categories: “derivative,” collective, and particular-intrinsic. Derivative power, coined by Michael Handel, relies upon the relationship with a great power. Collective power involves building coalitions of supportive states, often through institutions. Particular-intrinsic power relies on the assets of the small state trying to do the influencing. Small states specialize in the bases and means of these types of power, which may have unconventional compulsory, institutional, structural, and productive aspects.