The impact of real estate on the mixed-asset portfolio in periods of financial stress

The case for holding real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio is typically made on its stabilising effect as a result of its diversification benefits. However, portfolio diversification often fails when it is most needed, i.e. during periods of financial stress. In these periods, the variability of returns for most asset classes increases thus reducing the stabilising effect of a diversified portfolio. This paper applies the approach of Chow et al (1999) to the US domestic mixed-asset portfolio to establish whether real estate, represented by REITs, is especially useful in times of financial stress. To this end monthly returns data on five assets classes: large cap stocks, small cap stocks, long dated government bonds, cash (T-Bills) and real estate (REITs) are evaluated over the period January 1972 to December 2001. The results indicate that the inclusion of REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio can lead to increases or decreases in returns depending on the asset class replaced and whether the period is one of calm or stress. However, the inclusion of REITs invariably leads to reductions in portfolio risk that are greater than any loss in return, especially in periods of financial stress. In other words, REITs acts as a stabilising force on the mixed-asset portfolio when it is most needed, i.e. in periods of financial stress.

Efficient interactive budget planning and adjusting under financial stress

One of the most challenging tasks in financial management for large governmental and industrial organizations is Planning and Budgeting (P&B). The processes involved with P&B are cost and time intensive, especially when dealing with uncertainties and budget adjustments during the planning horizon. This work builds on our previous research in which we proposed and evaluated a fuzzy approach that allows optimizing the budget interactively beyond the initial planning stage. In this research we propose an extension that handles financial stress (i.e. drastic budget cuts) occurred during the budget period. This is done by introducing fuzzy stress parameters which are used to re-distribute the budget in order to minimize the negative impact of the financial stress. The benefits and possible issues of this approach are analyzed critically using a real world case study from the Nuremberg Institute of Technology (NIT). Additionally, ongoing and future research directions are presented.