Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

Accounting for complex investment transactions

This case study exposes students to complex investment transactions. You must document the following: (1) apply the appropriate accounting literature along with its provisions and justify the order of its application; (2) identify and interpret key facts to classify the given investments and relations; (3) discuss the choice of key assumptions that are central to the analysis; (4) interpret the nature of all investment relations with Holdings; discuss all Owner level and below relations; (5) discuss how accounting for varied levels of influence impact the items reported on/off the face of investors’ financial statements; (6) from DT’s perspective, discuss the potential positives and negatives of its arrangement with Owner with respect to Holdings; and (7) after analyzing additional facts, discuss the nature of the relations of Simon and Herb III with Owner.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Functional disconnection of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal system disrupts choice reaction time performance: implications for attentional function

This series of experiments investigated the role of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal circuit in attention, using a continuous performance task of sustained and spatially divided visual attention. A unilateral excitotoxic lesion of the medial prefrontal cortex and a contralateral lesion of the medial caudate-putamen were used to "disconnect" the circuit. Control groups of rats with unilateral lesions of either structure were tested in the same task. Behavioral controls included testing the effects of the disconnection lesion on Pavlovian discriminated approach behavior. The disconnection lesion produced a significant reduction in the accuracy of performance in the attentional task but did not impair Pavlovian approach behavior or affect locomotor or motivational variables, providing evidence for the involvement of this medial prefrontal corticostriatal system in aspects of visual attentional function.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Transfer effects in implicit memory and consumer choice

Two experiments investigated transfer effects in implicit memory and consumer choice, using a preference judgement task. Experiment 1 examined whether it is possible to obtain priming for unfamiliar food labels. Additionally, it investigated whether the experience of seeing a brand name with a particular product type would benefit subsequent processing of the brand name when linked with a different product type. Experiment 2 examined whether changes in modality between study and test would affect priming for unfamiliar brand names. Both questions are theoretically important, as well as pertaining to practical concerns in the consumer choice literature. Experiment 1 demonstrated significant priming for unfamiliar food labels, and established that priming was unaffected by changing the product type with which the brand name was associated. In Experiment 2, priming on both auditory and visual versions of the preference judgement task was reduced by changes in modality. The results and implications are discussed in relation to consumer choice and current theories of implicit memory.

The choice of names and symbols for quantities in chemistry

The importance of maintaining a clear distinction between the names and symbols for quantities and the names and symbols for units.

MFN status and the choice of tariff regime

The gradualist approach to trade liberalization views the uniform tariffs implied by MFN status as an important step on the path to free trade. We investigate whether a regime of uniform tariffs will be preferable to discriminatory tariffs when countries engage in non-cooperative interaction in multilateral trade. The analysis includes product differentiation and asymmetric costs. We show that with the cost asymmetry the countries will disagree on the choice of tariff regime. When the choice of import tariffs and export subsidies is made sequentially the uniform tariff regime may not be sustainable, because of an incentive to deviate to a discriminatory regime. Hence, an international body is needed to ensure compliance with tariff agreement.

Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Consumer willingness to pay for in-flight service and comfort levels: A choice experiment

In the competitive aviation market as a result of the emergence of low cost carriers, charter airlines have had to reconsider their approach to service provision. Specifically, the reduction in service and comfort levels offered by the low cost airlines provides charter carriers with an opportunity to differentiate their product based on the quality of the offering. To consider this strategic option we employ an on-line choice experiment to examine consumer choices with respect to the bundle of services on offer when deciding to purchase a flight, With these data we use the Bayesian methods to estimate a mixed logit specification. Our results reveal that in principle passengers are willing to pay a relatively large amount for enhanced service quality. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.